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China's Covid-19 ‘success’ is a mirage that continues to deceive the West

11 points by spking 6y ago

harpiaharpyja 6y ago
There needs to be more conversation about this.
mytailorisrich 6y ago
I don't see the value or point of these articles. They always seem like point scoring exercises or agenda-driven based on personal opinions and subjective assessments. In this case it's not even clear who the author is... China (and they are not alone) has done relatively well against the virus, so far certainly better than the West in general. It's just intellectual honesty to recognise this whatever we might think of the Chinese government. Can we trust all the Chinese government reports? No. But when they lift most restrictions and life is mostly back to normal this is not fake. They cannot hide serious outbreaks. Case in point they still enforce local lockdowns here and there as cases arise. I think there are two main aspects in what they are doing: 1. Strict lockdowns, strictly enforced but with people also complying by themselves. 2. Comprehensive monitoring, and track and trace systems in place after lockdowns.
- monkeydreams 6y ago
  > I don't see the value or point of these articles. They always seem like point scoring exercises or agenda-driven based on personal opinions and subjective assessments. Answered your own question. It's either lockdown fetishists who don't believe that there is any alternative, or anti-lockdown libertarians who don't believe control is possible if it affects even a single freedom, or anti-China or pro-West people who do not believe that the Chinese might have some grip on this, or so on.
Engineering-MD 6y ago
The thesis of this article is that China has not actually controlled the spread of the coronavirus, and instead claimed it had while it continued to spread. The article hypothesises that the reason this lie has not been uncovered is coronavirus is mostly not harmful to 99.9% of the population, and hence small negative effects can be concealed. I believe the logic in this article to be false. The negative effects on hospital overload of well characterised in the west. The sudden peak in number of people with an acute infection as a product of exponential spread leads to clear peaks of hospital need and associated reduced capacity. While this is most significant in nations with a significant number of elderly, it is also visible in the younger population. I therefore find it unlikely to be feasible to conceal this level of spread, although I concede Chinese control over the media may allow it to do even this. We will find out eventually with the presence of Covid antibody studies in the Chinese populace compared to say the USA.
- monkeydreams 6y ago
  The simple question would be - are their hospitals overflowing with the sick and dying? I have seen no evidence to suggest that they are. So, taking the fewest multiplied agents, I would assume either that the Chinese have effectively managed the virus in urban areas (which are those most visible to the West). To assume that this is not correct would require exponential numbers of agents to be complicit with this scam, including all expats who still have communication lines open to the West. China is not North Korea. If their wards are not overflowing with the sick and dying during winter, then they are likely not experiencing a massive COVID surge (a la UK / US).

11 points by spking 6y ago

There needs to be more conversation about this.

I don't see the value or point of these articles. They always seem like point scoring exercises or agenda-driven based on personal opinions and subjective assessments. In this case it's not even clear who the author is... China (and they are not alone) has done relatively well against the virus, so far certainly better than the West in general. It's just intellectual honesty to recognise this whatever we might think of the Chinese government. Can we trust all the Chinese government reports? No. But when they lift most restrictions and life is mostly back to normal this is not fake. They cannot hide serious outbreaks. Case in point they still enforce local lockdowns here and there as cases arise. I think there are two main aspects in what they are doing: 1. Strict lockdowns, strictly enforced but with people also complying by themselves. 2. Comprehensive monitoring, and track and trace systems in place after lockdowns.

monkeydreams 6y ago
> I don't see the value or point of these articles. They always seem like point scoring exercises or agenda-driven based on personal opinions and subjective assessments. Answered your own question. It's either lockdown fetishists who don't believe that there is any alternative, or anti-lockdown libertarians who don't believe control is possible if it affects even a single freedom, or anti-China or pro-West people who do not believe that the Chinese might have some grip on this, or so on.

Engineering-MD 6y ago

The thesis of this article is that China has not actually controlled the spread of the coronavirus, and instead claimed it had while it continued to spread. The article hypothesises that the reason this lie has not been uncovered is coronavirus is mostly not harmful to 99.9% of the population, and hence small negative effects can be concealed. I believe the logic in this article to be false. The negative effects on hospital overload of well characterised in the west. The sudden peak in number of people with an acute infection as a product of exponential spread leads to clear peaks of hospital need and associated reduced capacity. While this is most significant in nations with a significant number of elderly, it is also visible in the younger population. I therefore find it unlikely to be feasible to conceal this level of spread, although I concede Chinese control over the media may allow it to do even this. We will find out eventually with the presence of Covid antibody studies in the Chinese populace compared to say the USA.

monkeydreams 6y ago
The simple question would be - are their hospitals overflowing with the sick and dying? I have seen no evidence to suggest that they are. So, taking the fewest multiplied agents, I would assume either that the Chinese have effectively managed the virus in urban areas (which are those most visible to the West). To assume that this is not correct would require exponential numbers of agents to be complicit with this scam, including all expats who still have communication lines open to the West. China is not North Korea. If their wards are not overflowing with the sick and dying during winter, then they are likely not experiencing a massive COVID surge (a la UK / US).