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The idea here must be that somehow Apple or AMD have figured out the magic sauce to making faster processors, while Intel of all companies is oblivious to it an

The idea here must be that somehow Apple or AMD have figured out the magic sauce to making faster processors, while Intel of all companies is oblivious to it and won't be able to catch up. In reality, there is nothing that Apple or AMD are doing that Intel could not also do, isn't already doing, or isn't in a hurry to also do. Consider that at 14nm+++++, Intel still manages to outpace AMD with its 7nm CPUs and latest architecture. AMD competes mainly on price, which is not a great position to be in. Intel's profit margins are massively better. It's possible that x86 will become less relevant in the future, but in that case Intel will still be one of the be best chip designers in the industry. They will once again produce ARM chips, perhaps borrow one or two insights from Apple's architecture. They will continue to outsource manufacturing to other fabs, perhaps even become fabless.

willis936 6y ago
>In reality, there is nothing that Apple or AMD are doing that Intel could not also do, isn't already doing, or isn't in a hurry to also do. On the contrary, Intel has refused to do any architectural innovation for nearly 20 years. They are capable, but overly conservative. They should have been in a hurry 10 years ago. It's well documented that they weren't and were resented for it. AMD came up with a winning strategy (multi-die packaging) and Intel still doesn't seem in a hurry to catch up. You could swap "AMD" in that sentence with "Apple" and maintain the meaning. When superscalar or simultaneous multithreading came out you didn't see competitors mill about waiting for the customers to forget about the advantages.
- incrudible 6y ago
  The question is, are they in a hurry to catch up? What is the market that AMD is actually taking over with its multi-chip packages, and at what cost? Just because AMD may be winning in Cinebench doesn't mean it's winning in the business side. Multi-chip packages have downsides that become obvious in certain enterprise workloads, so the question becomes: Is it worth giving up on the monolithic approach, or adding multi-chip products, in order to completely dominate the market, even when that is not more profitable? Clearly, the answer for Intel must be "no", otherwise they would being doing it.
  - willis936 6y ago
    I think the reason Intel is not doing multi-die packages is because the R&D to make it work is large and they don't want to take on that risk. What are the downsides, exactly? Thread-to-thread latency is the key one that comes to mind. It is far cheaper to make a multi-die package because yields are so much higher for any given node. The business advantages are great. The bleak picture for Intel that is being painted is warranted.
    - galaxyLogic 6y ago
      AMD got downgraded today because Intel has new CEO. I don't know why the new CEO would be better, but they say fish rots from the head. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD?p=AMD&.tsrc=fin-srch https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD?p=AMD&.tsrc=fin-srch
Tuna-Fish 6y ago
> Consider that at 14nm+++++, Intel still manages to outpace AMD with its 7nm CPUs and latest architecture. AMD competes mainly on price, which is not a great position to be in. Intel's profit margins are massively better. Have you been living under a rock for this past year? This is not true. AMD is beating Intel in performance in every market segment right now.
- incrudible 6y ago
  I am talking about the latest Intel architecture which admittedly has not shipped on the Desktop yet, so benchmarks are not independently verified. If you look at the mobile chips that did ship on 10nm, Intel is ahead as well.
  - ChuckNorris89 6y ago
    Intel's "latest" architecture is basically the same Skylake from 2015 except they just pulled a Prescott with it and simply cranked up the power and heat until it reaches a desired x% extra performance over last gen.
    - incrudible 6y ago
      Preliminary benchmarks show them surpassing Zen3 on the desktop with only a slight frequency bump.
      - Tuna-Fish 6y ago
        Only in cherry-picked benchmarks that already favored Intel on their past-gen chips. If you assume that performance is improved everywhere evenly, and extrapolate from those prerelease benchmarks and existing benchmarks for their older chips, their new chip will end up being ~5% slower than Zen3 overall. Also, never compare chips that are actually on the market to unreleased ones. Zen3 might well get a small frequency boost when Intel finally releases Rocket Lake.
        6y ago

willis936 6y ago

>In reality, there is nothing that Apple or AMD are doing that Intel could not also do, isn't already doing, or isn't in a hurry to also do. On the contrary, Intel has refused to do any architectural innovation for nearly 20 years. They are capable, but overly conservative. They should have been in a hurry 10 years ago. It's well documented that they weren't and were resented for it. AMD came up with a winning strategy (multi-die packaging) and Intel still doesn't seem in a hurry to catch up. You could swap "AMD" in that sentence with "Apple" and maintain the meaning. When superscalar or simultaneous multithreading came out you didn't see competitors mill about waiting for the customers to forget about the advantages.

incrudible 6y ago
The question is, are they in a hurry to catch up? What is the market that AMD is actually taking over with its multi-chip packages, and at what cost? Just because AMD may be winning in Cinebench doesn't mean it's winning in the business side. Multi-chip packages have downsides that become obvious in certain enterprise workloads, so the question becomes: Is it worth giving up on the monolithic approach, or adding multi-chip products, in order to completely dominate the market, even when that is not more profitable? Clearly, the answer for Intel must be "no", otherwise they would being doing it.
- willis936 6y ago
  I think the reason Intel is not doing multi-die packages is because the R&D to make it work is large and they don't want to take on that risk. What are the downsides, exactly? Thread-to-thread latency is the key one that comes to mind. It is far cheaper to make a multi-die package because yields are so much higher for any given node. The business advantages are great. The bleak picture for Intel that is being painted is warranted.
  - galaxyLogic 6y ago
    AMD got downgraded today because Intel has new CEO. I don't know why the new CEO would be better, but they say fish rots from the head. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD?p=AMD&.tsrc=fin-srch https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD?p=AMD&.tsrc=fin-srch

Tuna-Fish 6y ago

> Consider that at 14nm+++++, Intel still manages to outpace AMD with its 7nm CPUs and latest architecture. AMD competes mainly on price, which is not a great position to be in. Intel's profit margins are massively better. Have you been living under a rock for this past year? This is not true. AMD is beating Intel in performance in every market segment right now.

incrudible 6y ago
I am talking about the latest Intel architecture which admittedly has not shipped on the Desktop yet, so benchmarks are not independently verified. If you look at the mobile chips that did ship on 10nm, Intel is ahead as well.
- ChuckNorris89 6y ago
  Intel's "latest" architecture is basically the same Skylake from 2015 except they just pulled a Prescott with it and simply cranked up the power and heat until it reaches a desired x% extra performance over last gen.
  - incrudible 6y ago
    Preliminary benchmarks show them surpassing Zen3 on the desktop with only a slight frequency bump.
    - Tuna-Fish 6y ago
      Only in cherry-picked benchmarks that already favored Intel on their past-gen chips. If you assume that performance is improved everywhere evenly, and extrapolate from those prerelease benchmarks and existing benchmarks for their older chips, their new chip will end up being ~5% slower than Zen3 overall. Also, never compare chips that are actually on the market to unreleased ones. Zen3 might well get a small frequency boost when Intel finally releases Rocket Lake.
      - 6y ago