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Yeah, exactly this. Intel has really stumbled on fabrication the last 2-3 years, but the idea that they won't correct that ignores decades of precedent. I'm a

Yeah, exactly this. Intel has really stumbled on fabrication the last 2-3 years, but the idea that they won't correct that ignores decades of precedent. I'm an AMD fanboy from the K6 days, and I love what Lisa Su has been able to deliver for them, but if it wasn't for Intel's stumbles, they would still be single digits at best in most markets. Look at their progress from Pentium 4 to Core 2 Duo (makes me feel real old to see that was 15 years ago). We probably won't see quite as dramatic an improvement over the next 3 years, but I'll be stunned if AMD still has the performance lead at that point. Apple's a wildcard, but they aren't going to sell their chips, and they represent a fairly small part of the PC market. No other non-x86 chips have made even a tiny dent in the PC market, and even in the datacenter, it's still mostly x86. The absolute worst I can imagine happening to Intel over the next decade is that they no longer define the CPU market. But that's a long, long, way from dying, and will probably be good for the market and good for Intel in the long run.

systemvoltage 6y ago
Curious, why were you a fanboy? Is it like rooting for team red and all the fun that goes into it? Honestly wondering since I have no feelings for any company even if their products are amazing.
- calvano915 6y ago
  I've been a fan for much the same time period yet never owned an AMD powered device, except maybe a game console? AMD has been useful to keep Intel on top of their game, but Intel has been on top for most of the last 15 years give or take.
  - systemvoltage 6y ago
    That's awesome. I want some of the old school Intel memorabilia and souveniers like this one. Intel had such a great brand back in the 90's: https://www.ebay.com/itm/Vintage-1997-Intel-Inside-MMX-Bunny-People-Plush-Spaceman-Lavender-Metallic-8/333746429567 https://www.ebay.com/itm/Vintage-1997-Intel-Inside-MMX-Bunny... You guys remember the blue man group? Good days. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tH0PYQl65LU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tH0PYQl65LU
- passive 6y ago
  It was really about them being an underdog, more than anything. Challenging the big dog and occasionally forcing them into more consumer-friendly behaviors. That said, I still ended up owning mostly Intel CPUs (a lapped Celeron 300a running at ~514mhz in the K6 days).
AtlasBarfed 6y ago
It's not like 2000, where if you're behind a good run of fab research will rocket you forward with some sweet increases in clock frequency. We're nearing the end of the road on node shrinks, Intel can best hope to be marginally ahead on process. What Apple's M1 shows is that a fundamental redesign is needed to get gains. Intel's problems appear to be in design, software, and business execution. But doing a new ISA or muscling into ARM or other radical things precisely require design/software/business execution or it will utterly fail. M1 is going to open the floodgates for ARM on PCs. That's what will kill Intel. AMD can probably pivot, I have faith in their designers.
- passive 6y ago
  The Pentium 4 to Core 2 Duo leap was based on architecture, not fab tech. It was a very significant shift in chip design philosophy. Intel being ahead in fab tech didn't hurt, but it's far from their only strength. There's no reason to believe M1 will open any sort of gates for Arm on PC. It's not like other Arm CPUs will be running Mac OS, or M1s will be running Windows. The whole pre-Intel period for Mac OS didn't do anything to diminish x86 on the desktop. Now, Chromebooks are something of an argument for ARM on the desktop, as they at least seem to provide identical behavior regardless of ISA, but they aren't putting up the necessary numbers quite yet. x86 still owns PC gaming, and has a pretty solid hold on console gaming. I'm not going to be worried at all for Intel until that shifts too.

systemvoltage 6y ago

Curious, why were you a fanboy? Is it like rooting for team red and all the fun that goes into it? Honestly wondering since I have no feelings for any company even if their products are amazing.

calvano915 6y ago
I've been a fan for much the same time period yet never owned an AMD powered device, except maybe a game console? AMD has been useful to keep Intel on top of their game, but Intel has been on top for most of the last 15 years give or take.
- systemvoltage 6y ago
  That's awesome. I want some of the old school Intel memorabilia and souveniers like this one. Intel had such a great brand back in the 90's: https://www.ebay.com/itm/Vintage-1997-Intel-Inside-MMX-Bunny-People-Plush-Spaceman-Lavender-Metallic-8/333746429567 https://www.ebay.com/itm/Vintage-1997-Intel-Inside-MMX-Bunny... You guys remember the blue man group? Good days. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tH0PYQl65LU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tH0PYQl65LU
passive 6y ago
It was really about them being an underdog, more than anything. Challenging the big dog and occasionally forcing them into more consumer-friendly behaviors. That said, I still ended up owning mostly Intel CPUs (a lapped Celeron 300a running at ~514mhz in the K6 days).

AtlasBarfed 6y ago

It's not like 2000, where if you're behind a good run of fab research will rocket you forward with some sweet increases in clock frequency. We're nearing the end of the road on node shrinks, Intel can best hope to be marginally ahead on process. What Apple's M1 shows is that a fundamental redesign is needed to get gains. Intel's problems appear to be in design, software, and business execution. But doing a new ISA or muscling into ARM or other radical things precisely require design/software/business execution or it will utterly fail. M1 is going to open the floodgates for ARM on PCs. That's what will kill Intel. AMD can probably pivot, I have faith in their designers.

passive 6y ago
The Pentium 4 to Core 2 Duo leap was based on architecture, not fab tech. It was a very significant shift in chip design philosophy. Intel being ahead in fab tech didn't hurt, but it's far from their only strength. There's no reason to believe M1 will open any sort of gates for Arm on PC. It's not like other Arm CPUs will be running Mac OS, or M1s will be running Windows. The whole pre-Intel period for Mac OS didn't do anything to diminish x86 on the desktop. Now, Chromebooks are something of an argument for ARM on the desktop, as they at least seem to provide identical behavior regardless of ISA, but they aren't putting up the necessary numbers quite yet. x86 still owns PC gaming, and has a pretty solid hold on console gaming. I'm not going to be worried at all for Intel until that shifts too.