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I'm Irish in Ireland, I've been following the matter closely. Ireland had one of the strictest lockdowns in most of Europe since March, no pubs, nightclubs, li

I'm Irish in Ireland, I've been following the matter closely. Ireland had one of the strictest lockdowns in most of Europe since March, no pubs, nightclubs, limited restaurants, churches, limited sports, 5km travel restrictions were on and off. We masked up early and our national broadcaster was constantly warning everyone non-stop. Schools were open however. We were the poster boy for lockdown success up until at least November. Other nations were commenting on our achievements. You can see what has happened since. The WHO warns that lockdown should only be treated as a last resort, to truly flatten the curve and no more. We ignored that. It's my sincere opinion that we've tried to push back a virus through our lockdown measures and social distancing that eventually cannot be controlled. Holding back a virus is like holding back a damn, eventually something will burst and typically at the wrong time. If we had listened to the WHO by not locking down, gaining natural immunity during the summer (when coronaviruses aren't as prevalent) we wouldn't be in the mess that we are in now. The median age of death of this virus is 82. Please conceptualise this. Less than 20 people under the age of 44 died from covid in 2020. With our current technology dying is a part of life that cannot be avoided. The people who are dying from covid at the moment are people who were going to die this year, remember, people have to die, most of them have already made peace with this idea. If we didn't try so hard to prevent these aged people from dying we wouldn't have our resources stretched thin which is compounding the death rate further. I'm sorry to be the person to tell you this but we all have to die, we shouldn't be stopping the living from enjoying their days on earth. Lockdowns are hurting the young and middle age to a drastic degree. You may not care because you work from home and are still guaranteed a paycheck. It's easy to virtue signal that you want to save everyone from the comfort of your keyboard. You aren't impacted by business closures but if you had any shed of humanity you would disagree to these lockdowns because they are causing more harm than good.

salmon30salmon 6y ago
Thank you. I honestly believe that there is a non-trivial percentage of the population that _likes_ the COVID world and wants to keep it going as long as possible. Some may like working remotely, others may like the wider acceptance of meal and grocery delivery, others may prefer the reduction in greenhouse gases. That is the only way I can rationalize the insistence of lockdowns here on HN and elsewhere. Either that or COVID is another social issue that is being exploited by nefarious actors to divide western nations. Or both.
- oceanplexian 6y ago
  I would liken it to missing a day at the gym. Even if you regularly work out if you start missing 1, 2, 3 days eventually you stop going altogether. The same thing has happened with WFH. People have already gotten used to working at home 100% of the time. Even if COVID was wiped off the face of the Earth there will be a large number of people who have simply gotten into a new routine and will never go back willingly unless if they are forced to.
- drcross 6y ago
  I agree. I think it's a combination of factors- The people who are currently on a good WFH salary are seeing their savings grow thinking they are doing well for themselves because soon they will buy a house but what they don't realise is that eventually they will have to pay for the 400k people on the pandemic unemployment payment, the 5 billion that was lost this year in tourism, the 10 million we are spending weekly on PCR testing. This all adds up and with only 2.3 million wage earners in Ireland they are going to be stung for a lot of tax to pay for this. There are people with short term or part time jobs who are happier to be paid 350 per week for staying at home. Why would you want to work a menial job if you didnt need to? Like Prof. Johan Giesecke from Sweden said, the western countries got themselves into a lockdown without thinking of a plan on how to get out of it and no one wants to be seen as the person who made the decision to kill loads of people. There's also the vaccine angle which is sure to make those companies lots of money this year.
  - discreteevent 6y ago
    They may not be stung for the tax. Zero interest loans with an infinite term are effectively being granted by the ECB.
    - drcross 6y ago
      Yeah I agree, but on that topic I think we're heading into completely unchartered territory with an event horizon beyond which I cannot see, the only wisdom I have that might prepare us for what might unfold is- "there's no such thing as a free lunch" and "there's a time when you have to pay the Piper".
DSingularity 6y ago
The lasting psychological damage from these lockdowns is going to take years just to understand. Especially on kids.
scsilver 6y ago
Do you have opinions about 1. holding the damn until the vaccine gets deployed 2. What are your concerns if any about the long term illnesses and organ damage in younger covid afflicted patients. I agree with your points except for those two key considerations. Because of this, I am for continuing lockdowns and distancing until the vaccine and refuse to potentially subject myself to life long debilitation when waiting 3 more months would offer significantly more protection.
- Mediterraneo10 6y ago
  Not the OP, but 1) officials in several EU countries have recently said that restrictions will probably exist until very late 2021, because even in a best-case scenario not enough of the public will be vaccinated until then. I personally would not accept borders being closed for so long among fraternal European countries. Even more seriously, the mass events and ordinary courtship opportunities that are so important for young people coming of age, should not be put off so long. (I am most opposed to lockdowns because I think it is the biggest betrayal of young people since ’68.) As for claims of “long COVID”, these are largely unverified and a media creation. (Clinical studies do exist, but the definition of “long-term symptoms” used among specialists is often not as dramatic as the one found in sensational newspaper coverage.) Many of the people claiming to have the condition have never even tested positive for COVID, and it can be seen as broadly the same demographic that, before this epidemic, claimed to have “chronic Lyme” in the complete absence of any evidence.
  - scsilver 6y ago
    I can definitely empathize with your first point, late 2021 is a rediculous time tax on the youth, who have yet again paid far more for this crisis in terms of missed opportunities and asset inflation. Closed state borders would be untenable over here in the US. For the second point, this article has shaken me a bit, and I've limited my exposure(stoped going to the store, eating out(outside), etc. I love my heart and my ability to do strenuous excersizes(skier, climber, and raver) and have decide to wait out these next few months for the vaccine. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/16/well/move/is-coronavirus-affecting-the-hearts-of-college-athletes.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/16/well/move/is-coronavirus-... Obviously its not a full study, but in light of lacking information, ill play a risk adverse hand.
1experience 6y ago
Just imagine if they had used all the propaganda to promote exercise and healthy eating to the population while handing out free bottles of vitamin d3 instead of the opposite (stay inside, don't sunbathe, don't exercise, eat poorly due to depression and economic hardship) 1) this is Sweden 2020 death rate compared to other Scandinavian countries (no lockdown, no masks) https://preview.redd.it/jujfoejeqwa61.png?width=1024&auto=webp&s=c34897adbc65202ede15976a560035c142f26e73 https://preview.redd.it/jujfoejeqwa61.png?width=1024&auto=we... 2) these are some of the effects caused by lockdowns worldwide https://outline.com/JKgfuv https://outline.com/JKgfuv
flukus 6y ago
> The WHO warns that lockdown should only be treated as a last resort, to truly flatten the curve and no more. We ignored that. Countries that have eliminated the virus have ignored this for good results. Some like us here in Melbourne have used lockdowns to eliminate the virus, others like New Zealand have used them as a first resort to contain outbreaks. Because we eliminated it we're now back to (mostly) normal, we don't have young people sacrificing anything, we have kids in school, we have large sporting events and it's not coming at the cost of everyone's lives. Despite WHO advice most countries that eliminated it have also kept borders mostly shut. Ireland is a tragedy because the were so close to elimination but never took those final steps to eliminate it and keep it out. The worlds tragedy is that they gave up on elimination, it would have been much cheaper and less impactful than rolling lockdowns.
- drcross 6y ago
  It's summer in the southern hemisphere and don't say you got rid of sars2 in your winter, you didn't, and there's still cases recently. Let my comment be a warning that you might be in for a world of hurt in the next few months as you go into winter. You have to remain globally isolated until the virus is completely eradicated.
  - flukus 6y ago
    > It's summer in the southern hemisphere and don't say you got rid of sars2 in your winter, you didn't Victoria had a large outbreak in winter, a (way too late) lockdown bought it under control. New Zealand had an outbreak in winter and a brief lockdown bought it back under control. I agree winter is hard mode, but we were 6 months ahead of the world in that regard, we were the warning that was ignored, we found it the hard way that soft lockdowns don't work in winter. > and there's still cases recently. Bought back from overseas, unfortunately flight crew are looking like a major vector. Current cases are low enough that good contact tracing is probably enough to keep on top of it, it's already stamped out a minor outbreak in Victoria and NSW just hit zero cases and will hopefully stay there. > You have to remain globally isolated until the virus is completely eradicated. We'll be globally isolated until enough people are vaccinated that exponential spread isn't possible. This is preferable to being personally isolated while a pandemic rages.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]

salmon30salmon 6y ago

Thank you. I honestly believe that there is a non-trivial percentage of the population that _likes_ the COVID world and wants to keep it going as long as possible. Some may like working remotely, others may like the wider acceptance of meal and grocery delivery, others may prefer the reduction in greenhouse gases. That is the only way I can rationalize the insistence of lockdowns here on HN and elsewhere. Either that or COVID is another social issue that is being exploited by nefarious actors to divide western nations. Or both.

oceanplexian 6y ago
I would liken it to missing a day at the gym. Even if you regularly work out if you start missing 1, 2, 3 days eventually you stop going altogether. The same thing has happened with WFH. People have already gotten used to working at home 100% of the time. Even if COVID was wiped off the face of the Earth there will be a large number of people who have simply gotten into a new routine and will never go back willingly unless if they are forced to.
drcross 6y ago
I agree. I think it's a combination of factors- The people who are currently on a good WFH salary are seeing their savings grow thinking they are doing well for themselves because soon they will buy a house but what they don't realise is that eventually they will have to pay for the 400k people on the pandemic unemployment payment, the 5 billion that was lost this year in tourism, the 10 million we are spending weekly on PCR testing. This all adds up and with only 2.3 million wage earners in Ireland they are going to be stung for a lot of tax to pay for this. There are people with short term or part time jobs who are happier to be paid 350 per week for staying at home. Why would you want to work a menial job if you didnt need to? Like Prof. Johan Giesecke from Sweden said, the western countries got themselves into a lockdown without thinking of a plan on how to get out of it and no one wants to be seen as the person who made the decision to kill loads of people. There's also the vaccine angle which is sure to make those companies lots of money this year.
- discreteevent 6y ago
  They may not be stung for the tax. Zero interest loans with an infinite term are effectively being granted by the ECB.
  - drcross 6y ago
    Yeah I agree, but on that topic I think we're heading into completely unchartered territory with an event horizon beyond which I cannot see, the only wisdom I have that might prepare us for what might unfold is- "there's no such thing as a free lunch" and "there's a time when you have to pay the Piper".

DSingularity 6y ago

The lasting psychological damage from these lockdowns is going to take years just to understand. Especially on kids.

scsilver 6y ago

Do you have opinions about 1. holding the damn until the vaccine gets deployed 2. What are your concerns if any about the long term illnesses and organ damage in younger covid afflicted patients. I agree with your points except for those two key considerations. Because of this, I am for continuing lockdowns and distancing until the vaccine and refuse to potentially subject myself to life long debilitation when waiting 3 more months would offer significantly more protection.

Mediterraneo10 6y ago
Not the OP, but 1) officials in several EU countries have recently said that restrictions will probably exist until very late 2021, because even in a best-case scenario not enough of the public will be vaccinated until then. I personally would not accept borders being closed for so long among fraternal European countries. Even more seriously, the mass events and ordinary courtship opportunities that are so important for young people coming of age, should not be put off so long. (I am most opposed to lockdowns because I think it is the biggest betrayal of young people since ’68.) As for claims of “long COVID”, these are largely unverified and a media creation. (Clinical studies do exist, but the definition of “long-term symptoms” used among specialists is often not as dramatic as the one found in sensational newspaper coverage.) Many of the people claiming to have the condition have never even tested positive for COVID, and it can be seen as broadly the same demographic that, before this epidemic, claimed to have “chronic Lyme” in the complete absence of any evidence.
- scsilver 6y ago
  I can definitely empathize with your first point, late 2021 is a rediculous time tax on the youth, who have yet again paid far more for this crisis in terms of missed opportunities and asset inflation. Closed state borders would be untenable over here in the US. For the second point, this article has shaken me a bit, and I've limited my exposure(stoped going to the store, eating out(outside), etc. I love my heart and my ability to do strenuous excersizes(skier, climber, and raver) and have decide to wait out these next few months for the vaccine. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/16/well/move/is-coronavirus-affecting-the-hearts-of-college-athletes.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/16/well/move/is-coronavirus-... Obviously its not a full study, but in light of lacking information, ill play a risk adverse hand.

1experience 6y ago

Just imagine if they had used all the propaganda to promote exercise and healthy eating to the population while handing out free bottles of vitamin d3 instead of the opposite (stay inside, don't sunbathe, don't exercise, eat poorly due to depression and economic hardship) 1) this is Sweden 2020 death rate compared to other Scandinavian countries (no lockdown, no masks) https://preview.redd.it/jujfoejeqwa61.png?width=1024&auto=webp&s=c34897adbc65202ede15976a560035c142f26e73 https://preview.redd.it/jujfoejeqwa61.png?width=1024&auto=we... 2) these are some of the effects caused by lockdowns worldwide https://outline.com/JKgfuv https://outline.com/JKgfuv

flukus 6y ago

> The WHO warns that lockdown should only be treated as a last resort, to truly flatten the curve and no more. We ignored that. Countries that have eliminated the virus have ignored this for good results. Some like us here in Melbourne have used lockdowns to eliminate the virus, others like New Zealand have used them as a first resort to contain outbreaks. Because we eliminated it we're now back to (mostly) normal, we don't have young people sacrificing anything, we have kids in school, we have large sporting events and it's not coming at the cost of everyone's lives. Despite WHO advice most countries that eliminated it have also kept borders mostly shut. Ireland is a tragedy because the were so close to elimination but never took those final steps to eliminate it and keep it out. The worlds tragedy is that they gave up on elimination, it would have been much cheaper and less impactful than rolling lockdowns.

drcross 6y ago
It's summer in the southern hemisphere and don't say you got rid of sars2 in your winter, you didn't, and there's still cases recently. Let my comment be a warning that you might be in for a world of hurt in the next few months as you go into winter. You have to remain globally isolated until the virus is completely eradicated.
- flukus 6y ago
  > It's summer in the southern hemisphere and don't say you got rid of sars2 in your winter, you didn't Victoria had a large outbreak in winter, a (way too late) lockdown bought it under control. New Zealand had an outbreak in winter and a brief lockdown bought it back under control. I agree winter is hard mode, but we were 6 months ahead of the world in that regard, we were the warning that was ignored, we found it the hard way that soft lockdowns don't work in winter. > and there's still cases recently. Bought back from overseas, unfortunately flight crew are looking like a major vector. Current cases are low enough that good contact tracing is probably enough to keep on top of it, it's already stamped out a minor outbreak in Victoria and NSW just hit zero cases and will hopefully stay there. > You have to remain globally isolated until the virus is completely eradicated. We'll be globally isolated until enough people are vaccinated that exponential spread isn't possible. This is preferable to being personally isolated while a pandemic rages.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]