3 ms·
>"Social behaviors" are not what slows down Rt when you get to 60% of the entire human population infected; the number of targets gradually diminishes, slowing
by soperj 6y ago
>"Social behaviors" are not what slows down Rt when you get to 60% of the entire human population infected; the number of targets gradually diminishes, slowing the spread.
Or the virus mutates, and off you go on another round. We have a couple of corona viruses that are already endemic in the human population, what makes you think this one will just die out naturally?
- jdminhbg 6y agoI'm not talking about dying out entirely, I'm talking about an end to exponential growth.
- soperj 6y agoThere's a finite population on the earth, clearly it has to end at some point for that particular strain, but again, it can evolve and the new strain could then grow exponentially again. It's likely already happened.
- s1artibartfast 6y ago>It's likely already happened. Please explain? I'm not aware of any variants of SARs-CoV-2 which are not covered by existing immunity.
- ryandrake 6y agoIs there evidence that surviving infection results in immunity forever? I don’t think we know since the disease is so new. For all we know, you can get it year after year like the flu or a cold.
- jdminhbg 6y agoAFAIK we don’t (can’t, really) know either way, but viruses it’s more closely related to (SARS 1, MERS) don’t seem to have that kind of flu behavior.
- s1artibartfast 6y agoCorrect, transmission Re decreases linearly with the exposed population (e.g. 50% exposed, 50% growth reduction).