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I feel like everyone continues to assume COVID-19 infection has an exponential curve but it's been shown by Nobel prize winner Michael Levitt that it actually f

I feel like everyone continues to assume COVID-19 infection has an exponential curve but it's been shown by Nobel prize winner Michael Levitt that it actually follows a Gompertz function more accurately. Not only that but the WHO recently released a statement saying that PCR testing for COVID-19 is not suitable as it detects many forms of respiratory problems including the common cold. I feel like the author of this article is simplifying a complex topic. [1] https://youtu.be/Uw2ZTaiN97k https://youtu.be/Uw2ZTaiN97k [2] https://www.who.int/news/item/14-12-2020-who-information-notice-for-ivd-users https://www.who.int/news/item/14-12-2020-who-information-not...

aidenn0 6y ago
All apparent exponential growth is actually sigmoid growth. It's just that the difference doesn't matter until you are on the right-hand side of the curve. The author of TFA clearly understands this because if 70M people have undaignosed covid, that shifts us to the right of the curve.
selimthegrim 6y ago
There is a lot of pushback on Levitt's predictions that keep moving the goalposts. Let's just say his Nobel Prize wasn't in curve fitting. https://liorpachter.wordpress.com/2020/09/21/the-lethal-nonsense-of-michael-levitt/ https://liorpachter.wordpress.com/2020/09/21/the-lethal-nons...
avs733 6y ago
I wouldn't trust a PhD in literature to tell me about epidemiology, I'm disinclined to trust a chemist either.
krona 6y ago
Isn't it trivially true to say it's impossible for any natural process to sustain exponential growth for a sustained duration of time?
thesimon 6y ago
>Not only that but the WHO recently released a statement saying that PCR testing for COVID-19 is not suitable as it detects many forms of respiratory problems including the common cold. From what I read in the WHO link, they are mostly saying that users should read the manual and check the cycle treshold to make sure no false negative results are seen.
- kaczordon 6y ago
  Background noise or high cycles will likely disturb the specificity it is seeking. Thus meaning a common cold individual being tested may in fact just have a common cold virus of sorts.

aidenn0 6y ago

All apparent exponential growth is actually sigmoid growth. It's just that the difference doesn't matter until you are on the right-hand side of the curve. The author of TFA clearly understands this because if 70M people have undaignosed covid, that shifts us to the right of the curve.

selimthegrim 6y ago

There is a lot of pushback on Levitt's predictions that keep moving the goalposts. Let's just say his Nobel Prize wasn't in curve fitting. https://liorpachter.wordpress.com/2020/09/21/the-lethal-nonsense-of-michael-levitt/ https://liorpachter.wordpress.com/2020/09/21/the-lethal-nons...

avs733 6y ago

I wouldn't trust a PhD in literature to tell me about epidemiology, I'm disinclined to trust a chemist either.

krona 6y ago

Isn't it trivially true to say it's impossible for any natural process to sustain exponential growth for a sustained duration of time?

thesimon 6y ago

>Not only that but the WHO recently released a statement saying that PCR testing for COVID-19 is not suitable as it detects many forms of respiratory problems including the common cold. From what I read in the WHO link, they are mostly saying that users should read the manual and check the cycle treshold to make sure no false negative results are seen.

kaczordon 6y ago
Background noise or high cycles will likely disturb the specificity it is seeking. Thus meaning a common cold individual being tested may in fact just have a common cold virus of sorts.