7 ms·

For those accustomed to US/Imperial units, -25×9÷5+32=-13°F. Temperatures in Madrid dropped to -16°C (3°F). As others here have mentioned, these temperatures a

by cs702 6y ago

For those accustomed to US/Imperial units, -25×9÷5+32=-13°F. Temperatures in Madrid dropped to -16°C (3°F). As others here have mentioned, these temperatures are unusually low for January in this region of Spain. They are the kinds of temperatures one would have seen in January during the "Little Ice Age" between the 15th and 19th centuries.[a][b][c] Let's hope this unusual drop in temperature is just a "one-off" rare climate event, and not a portend of things to come. -- [a] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age [b] https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/04/01/how-the-little-ice-age-changed-history https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/04/01/how-the-little... [c] http://www.iberianature.com/material/iceage.html http://www.iberianature.com/material/iceage.html

evgen 6y ago
I believe that this is due to the recent collapse of this year's polar vortex. The same thing happened last year and pushed large amounts of cold polar air into Europe. We are expecting a few more waves of this over the next few weeks.
PeterisP 6y ago
It absolutely is an example of things to come - scenarios like this are caused by the weakened polar vortex that generally separates European weather from Arctic weather; the polar vortex has become weaker over the last years because of recent climate change / regional warming, and it is strongly expected to become even weaker in the coming decade(s), making weather like this more frequent.
- waheoo 6y ago
  Is this related to the polar vortex collapse discussed just the other day, https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25713704 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25713704
  - throwaway5752 6y ago
    This isn't related to the polar vortex splitting, this is the polar vortex that has split. This is a part of the cold air mass that normally sits on the North Pole, but on top of Spain. Normally the cold arctic air spins around the north pole stably because it is cold and low pressure in the northern hemisphere winter. Warm air intruded into it, destabilized it, and it spun out into lower latitudes with corresponding intrusions of equally hot temperatures elsewhere (Tibetan plateau https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1348693028022738951/photo/1 https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1348693028022738951/...)
- nextos 6y ago
  It looks unusual, and I agree with you that it might be an example of the things to come. But I'd love to see an analysis of snowstorms in central Spain using extreme value theory. It might not be that infrequent. In EVT terms, the return level might not be more than a few decades. Central Spain is quite cold. For example, when the International Brigades came to fight in the Civil War they were expecting a mild Winter, but they were shocked by pretty extreme temperatures. Luckily, everyone got prepared as next few years were even worse. In 1937, Teruel Battle was consistently fought below -20 C. Aside from 1937, 1956 and 1971 saw pretty intense snowstorms. The 1971 one was much worse than the current storm according to the data I've seen.
baxtr 6y ago
Wasn’t this kinda expected? It’s an El Niño year I believe? Australian summer is also colder than usual I think. EDIT: Seems like it’s a “La niña” Winter...
- ben_w 6y ago
  The average minimum in Madrid in January is +3°C, and -3°C in Molina de Aragón, so no. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_Madrid https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_Madrid https://www.weather-atlas.com/en/spain/molina-de-aragon-climate#climate_text_1 https://www.weather-atlas.com/en/spain/molina-de-aragon-clim...
- knowhy 6y ago
  According to Wikipedia [0] that should not affect Europe. 0: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Ni%C3%B1a#/media/File:La_Nina_regional_impacts.gif https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Ni%C3%B1a#/media/File:La_Ni...
- King-Aaron 6y ago
  41 degrees in Perth the other day, it seems pretty on par on this side of the island
nojokes 6y ago
In principle snow is good. It is better than rain as it will not flow quickly away. Melting snow lets more water to sink into ground and build up water table.
- throw0101a 6y ago
  As someone who lives in Canada: you don't have to shovel rain.
  - serf 6y ago
    as a former citizen of Huntington Beach CA during the 1997 El Nino storms, i'd take the snow. I have the newspaper clipping of my grandmother being rescued from her home via dinghy by city rescue workers. Everyone I knew had their house ruined in hours after weeks of shoveling sandbags fruitlessly in front of the neighborhoods and homes. And that was just the flood damage and personal effect , itself. Untold amounts of environmental and biological damage occurred when sea-levels were temporarily higher than any of the sanitation and oil-recollection facilities that were in town. That said , snow sucks, but i'd rather sweep it off my roof and winterize my plumbing than attempting to figure out the physics behind flood-proofing acres of land (almost always fruitlessly) and having to surf in sewage for years past the event.
    - stickfigure 6y ago
      Oh you sweet summer child... (take the summer part literally) > i'd rather sweep it off my roof Any significant amount of snow in LA would crush every single one of those beautiful flat modernist roofs. Snow load is no joke.
      - tpmx 6y ago
        That's both very correct and very unfair, at the same time. Bravo! /Spent an hour shoveling snow today
    - tharkun__ 6y ago
      Snow is awesome! Except when it all melts in spring all at once and the river(s) flood their surroundings. The ones that stupid (or corrupt or both) city planners and developers have been building on for years now. Flood plains? What's that? Oh you mean all that nice river front property that would sell for really great prices? The bridge I used to take to work (before covid) is also affected by this. Both in the sense that the only other bridge to take from here was getting closed due to the rivers water level, meaning traffic doubled overnight and in the sense that we were mere inches away from that bridge also having to close.
oh_sigh 6y ago
Wouldn't a little ice age be great right about now? Then we can burn all the oil we want and be helping stay within our temperature bounds, not blowing through them.
- Shared404 6y ago
  Not an expert by any means, but... The issue is that this is caused by the collapse of standard weather systems. This isn't a sign of an ice age, it's the sign of instability.

by cs702 6y ago

evgen 6y ago

I believe that this is due to the recent collapse of this year's polar vortex. The same thing happened last year and pushed large amounts of cold polar air into Europe. We are expecting a few more waves of this over the next few weeks.

PeterisP 6y ago

It absolutely is an example of things to come - scenarios like this are caused by the weakened polar vortex that generally separates European weather from Arctic weather; the polar vortex has become weaker over the last years because of recent climate change / regional warming, and it is strongly expected to become even weaker in the coming decade(s), making weather like this more frequent.

waheoo 6y ago
Is this related to the polar vortex collapse discussed just the other day, https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25713704 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25713704
- throwaway5752 6y ago
  This isn't related to the polar vortex splitting, this is the polar vortex that has split. This is a part of the cold air mass that normally sits on the North Pole, but on top of Spain. Normally the cold arctic air spins around the north pole stably because it is cold and low pressure in the northern hemisphere winter. Warm air intruded into it, destabilized it, and it spun out into lower latitudes with corresponding intrusions of equally hot temperatures elsewhere (Tibetan plateau https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1348693028022738951/photo/1 https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1348693028022738951/...)
nextos 6y ago
It looks unusual, and I agree with you that it might be an example of the things to come. But I'd love to see an analysis of snowstorms in central Spain using extreme value theory. It might not be that infrequent. In EVT terms, the return level might not be more than a few decades. Central Spain is quite cold. For example, when the International Brigades came to fight in the Civil War they were expecting a mild Winter, but they were shocked by pretty extreme temperatures. Luckily, everyone got prepared as next few years were even worse. In 1937, Teruel Battle was consistently fought below -20 C. Aside from 1937, 1956 and 1971 saw pretty intense snowstorms. The 1971 one was much worse than the current storm according to the data I've seen.

baxtr 6y ago

Wasn’t this kinda expected? It’s an El Niño year I believe? Australian summer is also colder than usual I think. EDIT: Seems like it’s a “La niña” Winter...

ben_w 6y ago
The average minimum in Madrid in January is +3°C, and -3°C in Molina de Aragón, so no. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_Madrid https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_Madrid https://www.weather-atlas.com/en/spain/molina-de-aragon-climate#climate_text_1 https://www.weather-atlas.com/en/spain/molina-de-aragon-clim...
knowhy 6y ago
According to Wikipedia [0] that should not affect Europe. 0: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Ni%C3%B1a#/media/File:La_Nina_regional_impacts.gif https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Ni%C3%B1a#/media/File:La_Ni...
King-Aaron 6y ago
41 degrees in Perth the other day, it seems pretty on par on this side of the island

nojokes 6y ago

In principle snow is good. It is better than rain as it will not flow quickly away. Melting snow lets more water to sink into ground and build up water table.

throw0101a 6y ago
As someone who lives in Canada: you don't have to shovel rain.
- serf 6y ago
  as a former citizen of Huntington Beach CA during the 1997 El Nino storms, i'd take the snow. I have the newspaper clipping of my grandmother being rescued from her home via dinghy by city rescue workers. Everyone I knew had their house ruined in hours after weeks of shoveling sandbags fruitlessly in front of the neighborhoods and homes. And that was just the flood damage and personal effect , itself. Untold amounts of environmental and biological damage occurred when sea-levels were temporarily higher than any of the sanitation and oil-recollection facilities that were in town. That said , snow sucks, but i'd rather sweep it off my roof and winterize my plumbing than attempting to figure out the physics behind flood-proofing acres of land (almost always fruitlessly) and having to surf in sewage for years past the event.
  - stickfigure 6y ago
    Oh you sweet summer child... (take the summer part literally) > i'd rather sweep it off my roof Any significant amount of snow in LA would crush every single one of those beautiful flat modernist roofs. Snow load is no joke.
    - tpmx 6y ago
      That's both very correct and very unfair, at the same time. Bravo! /Spent an hour shoveling snow today
  - tharkun__ 6y ago
    Snow is awesome! Except when it all melts in spring all at once and the river(s) flood their surroundings. The ones that stupid (or corrupt or both) city planners and developers have been building on for years now. Flood plains? What's that? Oh you mean all that nice river front property that would sell for really great prices? The bridge I used to take to work (before covid) is also affected by this. Both in the sense that the only other bridge to take from here was getting closed due to the rivers water level, meaning traffic doubled overnight and in the sense that we were mere inches away from that bridge also having to close.

oh_sigh 6y ago

Wouldn't a little ice age be great right about now? Then we can burn all the oil we want and be helping stay within our temperature bounds, not blowing through them.

Shared404 6y ago
Not an expert by any means, but... The issue is that this is caused by the collapse of standard weather systems. This isn't a sign of an ice age, it's the sign of instability.