If A and A+ both explain the data and make the same predictions, then they have exactly the same probability of being wrong: If A is true then A+ is true and vi

If A and A+ both explain the data and make the same predictions, then they have exactly the same probability of being wrong: If A is true then A+ is true and vice versa. The additional complexity in A+ does not correspond to additional information about the world, and this is why we can safely choose A over A+.