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Yeah, according to the author I guess Einstein was "winging it" too.

by jeromec 15y ago

BasDirks 15y ago
Don't know why you were downvoted, it's a decent point you make. There are people who dedicated their entire life to an idea or ideal, and succeed _that_ way. Perhaps it's useful to distinguish between "entrepreneurial" success-stories and achievements like Einstein's
- jeromec 15y ago
  Well, yeah, I might give him some slack if he limited it to entrepreneurial success, although I still wouldn't agree with it. He contends the entrepreneurs behind Club Penguin (sold to Disney) or Mint (sold to Intuit) -- or to go old-school, Berkshire Hathaway -- "winged" their way to success. But he doesn't stop there: Even Fortune 500 CEOs, Nobel Prize winners, and U.S. presidents — all are really good at winging it. Proclaiming Nobel Prize winners in fields like Chemistry or Physics are "winging it" is, frankly, uninformed and insulting.
  - Alex3917 15y ago
    "He contends the entrepreneurs behind Club Penguin (sold to Disney) or Mint (sold to Intuit)" I can't speak for Mint, but Scott Cook (who founded Intuit) was definitely winging it: http://itc.conversationsnetwork.org/shows/detail523.html# http://itc.conversationsnetwork.org/shows/detail523.html#
    - jeromec 15y ago
      Yes, I didn't say all entrepreneurs have a clear idea of what they want to do, how they will do it, and how it's likely to come out -- many clearly don't. However, that's not always the case. I believe Club Penguin, a site that clearly targeted a demographic of youth, and Mint which targeted personal finance, are examples of companies set up from day one with a clear idea of what they were trying to accomplish.
josiah 15y ago
"If we knew what it was we were doing, it would not be called research, would it?" -- Albert Einstein
- jeromec 15y ago
  Sure, and we still research Gravity today. That doesn't mean we're guessing a ball will drop when released the same as it always has, now does it? At some point you do know what you're talking about, to a degree of certainty beyond "winging it", at any rate.
  - jeromec 15y ago
    I find it funny someone downvoted my comment above. They must imagine we really don't know anything about anything. Perhaps we should just throw out all scientific experimentation, proofs, textbooks, etc. ever done and pretend the universe is actually working according to Dr. Seuss type principles. It's just as likely, right? </sarcasm>
vannevar 15y ago
I think you're missing the point of his argument. It isn't that we don't know anything, or that we cannot know anything. It is simply that people who are successful do not know how they became successful. Even the work of someone like Einstein is subject to the vagaries of chance; it's entirely possible that had he not been inspired by some trivial incident in his life, he might never have had the insight that led to relativity. The author may overstate the argument, but his fundamental point is sound.
- jeromec 15y ago
  people who are successful do not know how they became successful. I'm afraid I don't follow. You're saying Warren Buffet, arguably the greatest investor of all time, doesn't know how he became successful? Or that some random chance gave him his uncanny investment insight? If that's the case why should we bother trying to control our lives at all? Why don't we just walk around with our eyes shut and hope luck drops into our lap?
  - vannevar 15y ago
    You're saying Warren Buffet, arguably the greatest investor of all time, doesn't know how he became successful? Yes. Or that some random chance gave him his uncanny investment insight? Possibly. The point is neither we, nor he, know. [W]hy should we bother trying to control our lives at all? A good question. Without getting into philosophical questions of free will, I suspect the pragmatic answer is that there is at least a weak correlation between the publicized 'formula' for success and actual success, for the same reason that most lottery winners are repeat buyers. By doing something, you expose yourself to fate. And generally, any activity we can afford to keep doing will at least permit us to make a living, which is the outcome for most. After all, we can't all be Warren Buffet---not even the Warren Buffets of the world.
    - jeromec 15y ago
      I suspect the pragmatic answer is that there is at least a weak correlation between the publicized 'formula' for success and actual success What is the publicized formula for success? By doing something, you expose yourself to fate. There are millions that do something with the stock market every week. Why is Warren Buffet the only one with his level of investment success?

Yeah, according to the author I guess Einstein was "winging it" too.

by jeromec 15y ago

Yeah, according to the author I guess Einstein was "winging it" too.

Don't know why you were downvoted, it's a decent point you make. There are people who dedicated their entire life to an idea or ideal, and succeed _that_ way. Perhaps it's useful to distinguish between "entrepreneurial" success-stories and achievements like Einstein's

jeromec 15y ago
Well, yeah, I might give him some slack if he limited it to entrepreneurial success, although I still wouldn't agree with it. He contends the entrepreneurs behind Club Penguin (sold to Disney) or Mint (sold to Intuit) -- or to go old-school, Berkshire Hathaway -- "winged" their way to success. But he doesn't stop there: Even Fortune 500 CEOs, Nobel Prize winners, and U.S. presidents — all are really good at winging it. Proclaiming Nobel Prize winners in fields like Chemistry or Physics are "winging it" is, frankly, uninformed and insulting.
- Alex3917 15y ago
  "He contends the entrepreneurs behind Club Penguin (sold to Disney) or Mint (sold to Intuit)" I can't speak for Mint, but Scott Cook (who founded Intuit) was definitely winging it: http://itc.conversationsnetwork.org/shows/detail523.html# http://itc.conversationsnetwork.org/shows/detail523.html#
  - jeromec 15y ago
    Yes, I didn't say all entrepreneurs have a clear idea of what they want to do, how they will do it, and how it's likely to come out -- many clearly don't. However, that's not always the case. I believe Club Penguin, a site that clearly targeted a demographic of youth, and Mint which targeted personal finance, are examples of companies set up from day one with a clear idea of what they were trying to accomplish.

josiah 15y ago

"If we knew what it was we were doing, it would not be called research, would it?" -- Albert Einstein

jeromec 15y ago
Sure, and we still research Gravity today. That doesn't mean we're guessing a ball will drop when released the same as it always has, now does it? At some point you do know what you're talking about, to a degree of certainty beyond "winging it", at any rate.
- jeromec 15y ago
  I find it funny someone downvoted my comment above. They must imagine we really don't know anything about anything. Perhaps we should just throw out all scientific experimentation, proofs, textbooks, etc. ever done and pretend the universe is actually working according to Dr. Seuss type principles. It's just as likely, right? </sarcasm>

vannevar 15y ago

I think you're missing the point of his argument. It isn't that we don't know anything, or that we cannot know anything. It is simply that people who are successful do not know how they became successful. Even the work of someone like Einstein is subject to the vagaries of chance; it's entirely possible that had he not been inspired by some trivial incident in his life, he might never have had the insight that led to relativity. The author may overstate the argument, but his fundamental point is sound.

jeromec 15y ago
people who are successful do not know how they became successful. I'm afraid I don't follow. You're saying Warren Buffet, arguably the greatest investor of all time, doesn't know how he became successful? Or that some random chance gave him his uncanny investment insight? If that's the case why should we bother trying to control our lives at all? Why don't we just walk around with our eyes shut and hope luck drops into our lap?
- vannevar 15y ago
  You're saying Warren Buffet, arguably the greatest investor of all time, doesn't know how he became successful? Yes. Or that some random chance gave him his uncanny investment insight? Possibly. The point is neither we, nor he, know. [W]hy should we bother trying to control our lives at all? A good question. Without getting into philosophical questions of free will, I suspect the pragmatic answer is that there is at least a weak correlation between the publicized 'formula' for success and actual success, for the same reason that most lottery winners are repeat buyers. By doing something, you expose yourself to fate. And generally, any activity we can afford to keep doing will at least permit us to make a living, which is the outcome for most. After all, we can't all be Warren Buffet---not even the Warren Buffets of the world.
  - jeromec 15y ago
    I suspect the pragmatic answer is that there is at least a weak correlation between the publicized 'formula' for success and actual success What is the publicized formula for success? By doing something, you expose yourself to fate. There are millions that do something with the stock market every week. Why is Warren Buffet the only one with his level of investment success?