5 ms·

Is my understanding correct that a virus so deadly would quickly peter out because it kills its hosts before it can spread?

roelschroeven 6y ago
That's my understanding as well. The problem, though, is that the virus doesn't completely peter out because it survives in the bats. There is a possibility a mutation makes the virus less lethal, in which case it could cause much more problems when it jumps again from bat to human. Maybe next year, maybe in a hundred years, maybe never. Disclaimer: I'm absolutely no expert. The above is only my best guess.
- Triv888 6y ago
  It probably could also mutate in a way that it would be just as lethal, but with a longer incubation period.
  - baxtr 6y ago
    Yeah. We all played that scenario on Plague!
comma_at 6y ago
The coronavirus alreay spreads before showing symptoms.
williamdclt 6y ago
It also depends on how long it stays asymptomatic (so that a host can go around and infect other people before dying) and how well it spreads from host to host, and probably other factors that I don't know about
- Symmetry 6y ago
  AIDS, for instance, also had an extremely high case fatality rate before modern treatment but due to it's slow progression it can spread just fine.
  - high_density 6y ago
    +1. btw, maybe moderna can go after AIDS sometime later? I wonder how mRNA vaccines will work for AIDS patients...
    - Renevith 6y ago
      If only there were some sort of... article you could read to find out about Moderna's vaccine plans :-P "The development programs announced today are mRNA vaccine candidates against seasonal flu, HIV and the Nipah virus."
    - jfengel 6y ago
      HIV is one of the three new programs in this announcement. So yes, that's precisely what they're hoping. (Pedantry: HIV is the virus that causes the disease AIDS. The goal is to prevent AIDS by vaccinating against HIV. It's unlikely that the vaccine would be able to help patients who already have AIDS.)
      - high_density 6y ago
        damn I have a habit of only reading HN comments and guessing what the article is about
        jfengel 6y ago
        It is slightly odd that the headline doesn't feature HIV more prominently, since this is a press release. PR puffery would call for a headline more like "We cured COVID and now we're going to cure Flu and AIDS (and another thing you've never heard of)." Props for modesty, I guess, but this is a weird instance to suddenly get coy.
        bluGill 6y ago
        The list of things they work working on is too long for a headline. I personally find HIV the least interesting (since I'm at extremely low risk by lifestyle - I'd still get the vaccine it work works, but it isn't a big deal to me). To me the correct headline is "moderna isn't working on vaccines for any of the cancers my family members are currently fighting" I have no doubt that someone else will read the article and respond "you idiot, they work working on X which is the most important things possible" - X of course being different for each personal situation.
ButWhatFor 6y ago
It also matters how long it takes to kill - but yes. Assume it takes a month to a kill a person... that’s a lot of time to infect others, especially if say 10 days of that are asymptomatic.
tibbydudeza 6y ago
Long incubation period with up to 6-21 days.
wmeredith 6y ago
Yes. See also: ebola. If a disease is fatal too fast, it cannot spread well.
- maxerickson 6y ago
  Also, Ebola spreads through direct contact with bodily fluids of an infected person, which has better mitigations than a lot of infections.
BitwiseFool 6y ago
If bats are a natural biological reservoir then no. Because if the disease is less lethal in bats that's how it will maintain itself.
roywiggins 6y ago
The 1910 Manchurian plague outbreak was spread pneumonically, with a nearly 100% mortality rate. It spread pretty well. It doesn't kill you instantly, so you can walk around and spread it before you inevitably die. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manchurian_plague https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manchurian_plague

roelschroeven 6y ago

That's my understanding as well. The problem, though, is that the virus doesn't completely peter out because it survives in the bats. There is a possibility a mutation makes the virus less lethal, in which case it could cause much more problems when it jumps again from bat to human. Maybe next year, maybe in a hundred years, maybe never. Disclaimer: I'm absolutely no expert. The above is only my best guess.

Triv888 6y ago
It probably could also mutate in a way that it would be just as lethal, but with a longer incubation period.
- baxtr 6y ago
  Yeah. We all played that scenario on Plague!

comma_at 6y ago

The coronavirus alreay spreads before showing symptoms.

williamdclt 6y ago

It also depends on how long it stays asymptomatic (so that a host can go around and infect other people before dying) and how well it spreads from host to host, and probably other factors that I don't know about

Symmetry 6y ago
AIDS, for instance, also had an extremely high case fatality rate before modern treatment but due to it's slow progression it can spread just fine.
- high_density 6y ago
  +1. btw, maybe moderna can go after AIDS sometime later? I wonder how mRNA vaccines will work for AIDS patients...
  - Renevith 6y ago
    If only there were some sort of... article you could read to find out about Moderna's vaccine plans :-P "The development programs announced today are mRNA vaccine candidates against seasonal flu, HIV and the Nipah virus."
  - jfengel 6y ago
    HIV is one of the three new programs in this announcement. So yes, that's precisely what they're hoping. (Pedantry: HIV is the virus that causes the disease AIDS. The goal is to prevent AIDS by vaccinating against HIV. It's unlikely that the vaccine would be able to help patients who already have AIDS.)
    - high_density 6y ago
      damn I have a habit of only reading HN comments and guessing what the article is about
      - jfengel 6y ago
        It is slightly odd that the headline doesn't feature HIV more prominently, since this is a press release. PR puffery would call for a headline more like "We cured COVID and now we're going to cure Flu and AIDS (and another thing you've never heard of)." Props for modesty, I guess, but this is a weird instance to suddenly get coy.
        bluGill 6y ago
        The list of things they work working on is too long for a headline. I personally find HIV the least interesting (since I'm at extremely low risk by lifestyle - I'd still get the vaccine it work works, but it isn't a big deal to me). To me the correct headline is "moderna isn't working on vaccines for any of the cancers my family members are currently fighting" I have no doubt that someone else will read the article and respond "you idiot, they work working on X which is the most important things possible" - X of course being different for each personal situation.

ButWhatFor 6y ago

It also matters how long it takes to kill - but yes. Assume it takes a month to a kill a person... that’s a lot of time to infect others, especially if say 10 days of that are asymptomatic.

tibbydudeza 6y ago

Long incubation period with up to 6-21 days.

wmeredith 6y ago

Yes. See also: ebola. If a disease is fatal too fast, it cannot spread well.

maxerickson 6y ago
Also, Ebola spreads through direct contact with bodily fluids of an infected person, which has better mitigations than a lot of infections.

BitwiseFool 6y ago

If bats are a natural biological reservoir then no. Because if the disease is less lethal in bats that's how it will maintain itself.

roywiggins 6y ago

The 1910 Manchurian plague outbreak was spread pneumonically, with a nearly 100% mortality rate. It spread pretty well. It doesn't kill you instantly, so you can walk around and spread it before you inevitably die. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manchurian_plague https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manchurian_plague