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One of these is for the little known Nipah virus. This virus is really scary. Like the Coronavirus, it jumps to humans from bats. Unlike the Coronavirus, it is

One of these is for the little known Nipah virus. This virus is really scary. Like the Coronavirus, it jumps to humans from bats. Unlike the Coronavirus, it is extremely lethal. In the last outbreak, in 2018 [1], the case fatality rate was 89%. Fortunately, there were only 19 cases (17 died). [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Nipah_virus_outbreak_in_Kerala https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Nipah_virus_outbreak_in_K...

throw0101a 6y ago
> One of these is for the little known Nipah virus. I just submitted about this: * https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210106-nipah-virus-how-bats-could-cause-the-next-pandemic https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210106-nipah-virus-how-... * https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25741798 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25741798
alexpetralia 6y ago
Is my understanding correct that a virus so deadly would quickly peter out because it kills its hosts before it can spread?
- roelschroeven 6y ago
  That's my understanding as well. The problem, though, is that the virus doesn't completely peter out because it survives in the bats. There is a possibility a mutation makes the virus less lethal, in which case it could cause much more problems when it jumps again from bat to human. Maybe next year, maybe in a hundred years, maybe never. Disclaimer: I'm absolutely no expert. The above is only my best guess.
  - Triv888 6y ago
    It probably could also mutate in a way that it would be just as lethal, but with a longer incubation period.
    - baxtr 6y ago
      Yeah. We all played that scenario on Plague!
- comma_at 6y ago
  The coronavirus alreay spreads before showing symptoms.
- williamdclt 6y ago
  It also depends on how long it stays asymptomatic (so that a host can go around and infect other people before dying) and how well it spreads from host to host, and probably other factors that I don't know about
  - Symmetry 6y ago
    AIDS, for instance, also had an extremely high case fatality rate before modern treatment but due to it's slow progression it can spread just fine.
    - high_density 6y ago
      +1. btw, maybe moderna can go after AIDS sometime later? I wonder how mRNA vaccines will work for AIDS patients...
      - Renevith 6y ago
        If only there were some sort of... article you could read to find out about Moderna's vaccine plans :-P "The development programs announced today are mRNA vaccine candidates against seasonal flu, HIV and the Nipah virus."
      - jfengel 6y ago
        HIV is one of the three new programs in this announcement. So yes, that's precisely what they're hoping. (Pedantry: HIV is the virus that causes the disease AIDS. The goal is to prevent AIDS by vaccinating against HIV. It's unlikely that the vaccine would be able to help patients who already have AIDS.)
        high_density 6y ago
        damn I have a habit of only reading HN comments and guessing what the article is about
        6y ago
- ButWhatFor 6y ago
  It also matters how long it takes to kill - but yes. Assume it takes a month to a kill a person... that’s a lot of time to infect others, especially if say 10 days of that are asymptomatic.
- tibbydudeza 6y ago
  Long incubation period with up to 6-21 days.
- wmeredith 6y ago
  Yes. See also: ebola. If a disease is fatal too fast, it cannot spread well.
  - maxerickson 6y ago
    Also, Ebola spreads through direct contact with bodily fluids of an infected person, which has better mitigations than a lot of infections.
- BitwiseFool 6y ago
  If bats are a natural biological reservoir then no. Because if the disease is less lethal in bats that's how it will maintain itself.
- roywiggins 6y ago
  The 1910 Manchurian plague outbreak was spread pneumonically, with a nearly 100% mortality rate. It spread pretty well. It doesn't kill you instantly, so you can walk around and spread it before you inevitably die. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manchurian_plague https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manchurian_plague
chanmad29 6y ago
I'd assume fowl to be much more common carriers but why are bats always the ones? Is there something glaring that I am missing?
- mzs 6y ago
  bats have an unusual immune system: https://www.sciencenews.org/article/bats-immune-system-viruses-ebola-marburg-people https://www.sciencenews.org/article/bats-immune-system-virus...
- justin66 6y ago
  Bats get around (they can fly!) and they're mammals, so the viruses they carry are somewhat compatible with us. Not that birds aren't also virus spreaders (West Nile, etc.). There's much more to it, of course. https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/why-do-bats-have-so-many-viruses/2020/07/10/0327f584-b65e-11ea-a8da-693df3d7674a_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/why-do-bats-have-so-m...
baxtr 6y ago
I’d be a bit careful with those numbers. Who knows how many people really had it. Maybe a good number of cases showed no symptoms and thus were not detected?
tkinom 6y ago
It happened so infrequently. How are they plan to test the vaccine on people?
- credit_guy 6y ago
  The announcement states that only the other 2 vaccines will start Phase 1 trials in 2021, and is silent on Phase 1 trials on the Nipah vaccine. There's development work before that though: in vitro trials and trials on animal models. Depending on the outcomes, they can move to Phase 1 trials, where, just like they did for the Covid vaccine, they'll look at the safety (i.e. if there are side-effects) and the immune response (how many antibodies, and what type of T-cell and B-cell response there is). If they do that, they would be in a position to quickly proceed to Phase 2/3 trials in case there's an outbreak anywhere in the world.
ed_balls 6y ago
It seems we need to cull a lot of bats.
- woleium 6y ago
  that actually makes transmission more likely. more culling means less comptition for food so more reproduction, which leads to a larger number of juvenile bats. Additionally, bats eat insects including mosquitos that cause maleria and they also pollinate fruit.
  - ed_balls 6y ago
    not really https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53856776 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53856776
deskamess 6y ago
They made a movie about it : Virus[1] on Amazon Prime. Unfortunately due to flashbacks, which introduce non-linearity, it may be difficult for those who are not native speakers to follow through the movie. The problem is no obvious visual highlighting indicating that a scene was a flashback (like going black and white). Otherwise a really solid watch. [1] https://www.imdb.com/title/tt8941440/ https://www.imdb.com/title/tt8941440/

throw0101a 6y ago

> One of these is for the little known Nipah virus. I just submitted about this: * https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210106-nipah-virus-how-bats-could-cause-the-next-pandemic https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210106-nipah-virus-how-... * https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25741798 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25741798

alexpetralia 6y ago

Is my understanding correct that a virus so deadly would quickly peter out because it kills its hosts before it can spread?

roelschroeven 6y ago
That's my understanding as well. The problem, though, is that the virus doesn't completely peter out because it survives in the bats. There is a possibility a mutation makes the virus less lethal, in which case it could cause much more problems when it jumps again from bat to human. Maybe next year, maybe in a hundred years, maybe never. Disclaimer: I'm absolutely no expert. The above is only my best guess.
- Triv888 6y ago
  It probably could also mutate in a way that it would be just as lethal, but with a longer incubation period.
  - baxtr 6y ago
    Yeah. We all played that scenario on Plague!
comma_at 6y ago
The coronavirus alreay spreads before showing symptoms.
williamdclt 6y ago
It also depends on how long it stays asymptomatic (so that a host can go around and infect other people before dying) and how well it spreads from host to host, and probably other factors that I don't know about
- Symmetry 6y ago
  AIDS, for instance, also had an extremely high case fatality rate before modern treatment but due to it's slow progression it can spread just fine.
  - high_density 6y ago
    +1. btw, maybe moderna can go after AIDS sometime later? I wonder how mRNA vaccines will work for AIDS patients...
    - Renevith 6y ago
      If only there were some sort of... article you could read to find out about Moderna's vaccine plans :-P "The development programs announced today are mRNA vaccine candidates against seasonal flu, HIV and the Nipah virus."
    - jfengel 6y ago
      HIV is one of the three new programs in this announcement. So yes, that's precisely what they're hoping. (Pedantry: HIV is the virus that causes the disease AIDS. The goal is to prevent AIDS by vaccinating against HIV. It's unlikely that the vaccine would be able to help patients who already have AIDS.)
      - high_density 6y ago
        damn I have a habit of only reading HN comments and guessing what the article is about
        6y ago
ButWhatFor 6y ago
It also matters how long it takes to kill - but yes. Assume it takes a month to a kill a person... that’s a lot of time to infect others, especially if say 10 days of that are asymptomatic.
tibbydudeza 6y ago
Long incubation period with up to 6-21 days.
wmeredith 6y ago
Yes. See also: ebola. If a disease is fatal too fast, it cannot spread well.
- maxerickson 6y ago
  Also, Ebola spreads through direct contact with bodily fluids of an infected person, which has better mitigations than a lot of infections.
BitwiseFool 6y ago
If bats are a natural biological reservoir then no. Because if the disease is less lethal in bats that's how it will maintain itself.
roywiggins 6y ago
The 1910 Manchurian plague outbreak was spread pneumonically, with a nearly 100% mortality rate. It spread pretty well. It doesn't kill you instantly, so you can walk around and spread it before you inevitably die. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manchurian_plague https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manchurian_plague

chanmad29 6y ago

I'd assume fowl to be much more common carriers but why are bats always the ones? Is there something glaring that I am missing?

mzs 6y ago
bats have an unusual immune system: https://www.sciencenews.org/article/bats-immune-system-viruses-ebola-marburg-people https://www.sciencenews.org/article/bats-immune-system-virus...
justin66 6y ago
Bats get around (they can fly!) and they're mammals, so the viruses they carry are somewhat compatible with us. Not that birds aren't also virus spreaders (West Nile, etc.). There's much more to it, of course. https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/why-do-bats-have-so-many-viruses/2020/07/10/0327f584-b65e-11ea-a8da-693df3d7674a_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/why-do-bats-have-so-m...

baxtr 6y ago

I’d be a bit careful with those numbers. Who knows how many people really had it. Maybe a good number of cases showed no symptoms and thus were not detected?

tkinom 6y ago

It happened so infrequently. How are they plan to test the vaccine on people?

credit_guy 6y ago
The announcement states that only the other 2 vaccines will start Phase 1 trials in 2021, and is silent on Phase 1 trials on the Nipah vaccine. There's development work before that though: in vitro trials and trials on animal models. Depending on the outcomes, they can move to Phase 1 trials, where, just like they did for the Covid vaccine, they'll look at the safety (i.e. if there are side-effects) and the immune response (how many antibodies, and what type of T-cell and B-cell response there is). If they do that, they would be in a position to quickly proceed to Phase 2/3 trials in case there's an outbreak anywhere in the world.

ed_balls 6y ago

It seems we need to cull a lot of bats.

woleium 6y ago
that actually makes transmission more likely. more culling means less comptition for food so more reproduction, which leads to a larger number of juvenile bats. Additionally, bats eat insects including mosquitos that cause maleria and they also pollinate fruit.
- ed_balls 6y ago
  not really https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53856776 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53856776

deskamess 6y ago

They made a movie about it : Virus[1] on Amazon Prime. Unfortunately due to flashbacks, which introduce non-linearity, it may be difficult for those who are not native speakers to follow through the movie. The problem is no obvious visual highlighting indicating that a scene was a flashback (like going black and white). Otherwise a really solid watch. [1] https://www.imdb.com/title/tt8941440/ https://www.imdb.com/title/tt8941440/