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> Then you think it must be a good strategy, because it's complicated to you. This is a very common fallacy. Exactly this. A friend of mine (PhD, smart guy, e

• wutbrodo 6y ago
  > You don't believe but there are hundreds of thousands smarter people with deeper pockets... Even if he is much smarter than all the quants at Goldman, they do this for sixty hours a week in a context where time matters a lot. That was the I will say that the efficient market hypothesis is probably overrated when it comes to an area where you have expertise; I used to make a bit higher than SPY or the Nasdaq by trading tech stocks on big movements (which are often insane), without using any insider info[1]. But the delta just wasn't worth having to spend my mornings looking at the markets so I didn't miss any trades, and I liked my day job a lot more.