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From an economic perspective there's a relatively simple solution: requiring experts to wager a certain amount of their own money on a measurable outcome of the
by logicchains 6y ago
From an economic perspective there's a relatively simple solution: requiring experts to wager a certain amount of their own money on a measurable outcome of their prediction when making public policy recommendations. If somebody's not confident enough in their own prediction to put their own money on it, then that prediction shouldn't be used as the basis for policies that can affect millions of peoples' lives.
- ineedasername 6y agoScience is not about being right every time. Stating a hypothesis publicly as you're experimenting to determine it's validity shouldn't require a wager.
- caddemon 6y agoTo be fair, betting isn't about being right every time either. To really make bank on a site like DraftKings you need to be good at the meta strategy, not just good at predicting sports outcomes. Obviously it's not a good idea to require a bet to make a public statement, but I also wouldn't mind seeing scientists be held more accountable for important decisions. How often are study sections evaluated after the fact, for example?
- ineedasername 6y agoIf we're talking public policy decisions, I don't think scientists should be punished when acting on the best available, but incomplete data, especially when two equally reasonable experts within the field can disagree on its interpretation.