4 ms·

Yes, many good points, but some of the same problems exist in the West and in the Asian democracies: covid, debt, aging demographics. China does have one comp

Yes, many good points, but some of the same problems exist in the West and in the Asian democracies: covid, debt, aging demographics. China does have one compelling advantage: its enormous population. Even if a horrible plague or even a civil war happened and 100m people died, they still have plenty of people to accomplish anything they want. They have Ph.D. scientists, many trained at top Western universities, who are equal to anyone in the West. They are doing an amazing job in manufacturing and technology; virtually all high value objects are manufactured in China, and, increasingly, designed there as well. They're pushing into automotive and aerospace and every other field. I don't see them slowing down any time soon.

bobthepanda 6y ago
The one child policy makes China’s aging problem particularly rapid, at a time when they are not wealthy enough per capita to make the transition. One child supports two parents and four grandparents. Plus a low retirement age that is only now getting extended. (60 for men, 55 for women previously). Over a third of Shanghai is over 60, as is a quarter in Beijing, Tianjin, etc. Now the one child policy has been relaxed, but it will take a while before extra kids are available to work, and at this point it’s sort of a cultural norm to have one kid (plus prohibitively expensive to raise two kids and provide them decent resources).
- blisterpeanuts 6y ago
  True, they're in trouble demographically. Projections I have read in the past (before one-child was repealed) suggested they would lose 400m people by end of 21st Century. 400m! Meanwhile, the West has its own implosion well underway... but, unlike China we have immigration. The U.S. population is still growing thanks to immigration, as is Europe's, even though both regions have replacement-level or below-replacement birthrates by natives. Immigrants tend to have higher birthrates however.
- Ericson2314 6y ago
  I would think this is actually good for them, as more internal demand relative to supply will help further transition away from exports, and also help increases their productivity (at least if they make working hours less insane).
  - bobthepanda 6y ago
    more internal demand but few people working is basically going to increase debt significantly, leave seniors in abject poverty, or some combination of the two. And possibly massive deflation as well since old people are on fixed incomes and don't spend too much.
    - Ericson2314 6y ago
      I thought Chinese household debt was absurdly low, but I guess that's changed. Still, I would prefer to "quotient out the money", and say either the demand is met or it isn't? To the extent it is met, perhaps there are imports of material goods or domestic labor (nurses?) I don't think it makes sense to worry about "domestic debt" in the same way, given the non-liberal political economy. Of course that doesn't mean there aren't limits, but the limits maybe would take the form of e.g. rising discontent and decreased productivity if it feels like an old-people-focused service economy with nothing in it for the workers.
      - bobthepanda 6y ago
        So, Lost Decade Japan on steroids. A massive debt hangover after an asset bubble pop, deflation for a decade, and worse employment prospects and economic conditions for young people.
        Ericson2314 6y ago
        It's silly to think that smaller portion of working age population -> worse employment prospects. That process is very possible but relies on higher order effects. You can't just blindly apply the economics of traditional liberal economies to a 21st century high tech illiberal economy.
jonathannat 6y ago
China's 1.3B population is not equal. around 700M still lives on $140/month income, with no education to "accomplish anything they want". It will have 500M 65 year olds by 2050, too old to "accomplish anything they want". China suffers brain drain to the West. Many of Chinese Ph.D students and scientists I know curse the day Xi Jing Ping declared himself to be the emperor, and is actively moving their families out of China as quickly as possible after 2018. China has had very little luck in advanced semiconductor or airplane engine productions
- blisterpeanuts 6y ago
  >advanced semiconductor or airplane engine... Not to disagree, but I believe it's just a matter of time. They're working hard in these areas. Also, recent stats I read somewhere say Chinese Ph.D.'s are returning to China in increasing numbers these days, somewhere around 50% or more compared to the old days when the majority stayed in America or Europe.
  - jonathannat 6y ago
    there's also alot more chinese students studying abroad, compared to the old days. The creme of the crop stays, and the rest goes back.
    - airstrike 6y ago
      The "rest" is still significantly better educated than those who never left, which implies they can fuel additional growth in China
    - hobofan 6y ago
      Do they actually have the freedom to decide to leave China?
  - ethbr0 6y ago
    The USSR worked hard on semiconductors and airplane engines, but ultimately failed to keep up with the West. Turns out, people with the means generally prefer living in countries with (a) individual freedom and rights, (b) freedom of the press, (c) an independent judiciary, & (d) economic surplus that responds to demand for luxury goods. We can whataboutism on where the West currently stands with regards to these things, but if you're pro- and con- ing various options as an educated professional then you have a choice. And if culture is a major consideration, then you could do worse than the Chinese communities in neighboring democratic states, or the literal democratic Chinese island...
varjag 6y ago
> China does have one compelling advantage: its enormous population. Which so far translates into ability to outcompete robots on cost and not much else.
aussiegreenie 6y ago
China between 1919-1949 China was ruled by "Warlordism" a weak central government and local strongmen controlling 10-100 million people. Uncle Xi is killing China. After Mao the whole political model was "collective" so no one could become so strong he would become an Emperor, Xi changes that by removing the two term (10 Yrs) rule of leadership. The CCP had one thing for legitimacy, economic growth. For 30 years China become richer and freer. In 2007 even people in HK were proud to be Chinese. That is not the case anymore. China peaked internationally in 2017. Post-Xi China whenever that occurs will be a large poor country surrounded by enemies without easy access to global markets. It is impossible to use any Chinese product without the possibility of the use of slave or child labour within the supply chain. China is more likely to return to Warlordism than become rich. TL:DR - China became richer and freer post-Mao and now that process has reversed and China is becoming less free and poorer.
wesleywt 6y ago
The incentives are pretty bad for researchers in China. Cheating and corruption is the best way to progress rather than innovation. I find it waste of time reading a Chinese scientific article, yet Chinese scientist in the US or Canada are brilliant.

bobthepanda 6y ago

The one child policy makes China’s aging problem particularly rapid, at a time when they are not wealthy enough per capita to make the transition. One child supports two parents and four grandparents. Plus a low retirement age that is only now getting extended. (60 for men, 55 for women previously). Over a third of Shanghai is over 60, as is a quarter in Beijing, Tianjin, etc. Now the one child policy has been relaxed, but it will take a while before extra kids are available to work, and at this point it’s sort of a cultural norm to have one kid (plus prohibitively expensive to raise two kids and provide them decent resources).

blisterpeanuts 6y ago
True, they're in trouble demographically. Projections I have read in the past (before one-child was repealed) suggested they would lose 400m people by end of 21st Century. 400m! Meanwhile, the West has its own implosion well underway... but, unlike China we have immigration. The U.S. population is still growing thanks to immigration, as is Europe's, even though both regions have replacement-level or below-replacement birthrates by natives. Immigrants tend to have higher birthrates however.
Ericson2314 6y ago
I would think this is actually good for them, as more internal demand relative to supply will help further transition away from exports, and also help increases their productivity (at least if they make working hours less insane).
- bobthepanda 6y ago
  more internal demand but few people working is basically going to increase debt significantly, leave seniors in abject poverty, or some combination of the two. And possibly massive deflation as well since old people are on fixed incomes and don't spend too much.
  - Ericson2314 6y ago
    I thought Chinese household debt was absurdly low, but I guess that's changed. Still, I would prefer to "quotient out the money", and say either the demand is met or it isn't? To the extent it is met, perhaps there are imports of material goods or domestic labor (nurses?) I don't think it makes sense to worry about "domestic debt" in the same way, given the non-liberal political economy. Of course that doesn't mean there aren't limits, but the limits maybe would take the form of e.g. rising discontent and decreased productivity if it feels like an old-people-focused service economy with nothing in it for the workers.
    - bobthepanda 6y ago
      So, Lost Decade Japan on steroids. A massive debt hangover after an asset bubble pop, deflation for a decade, and worse employment prospects and economic conditions for young people.
      - Ericson2314 6y ago
        It's silly to think that smaller portion of working age population -> worse employment prospects. That process is very possible but relies on higher order effects. You can't just blindly apply the economics of traditional liberal economies to a 21st century high tech illiberal economy.

jonathannat 6y ago

China's 1.3B population is not equal. around 700M still lives on $140/month income, with no education to "accomplish anything they want". It will have 500M 65 year olds by 2050, too old to "accomplish anything they want". China suffers brain drain to the West. Many of Chinese Ph.D students and scientists I know curse the day Xi Jing Ping declared himself to be the emperor, and is actively moving their families out of China as quickly as possible after 2018. China has had very little luck in advanced semiconductor or airplane engine productions

blisterpeanuts 6y ago
>advanced semiconductor or airplane engine... Not to disagree, but I believe it's just a matter of time. They're working hard in these areas. Also, recent stats I read somewhere say Chinese Ph.D.'s are returning to China in increasing numbers these days, somewhere around 50% or more compared to the old days when the majority stayed in America or Europe.
- jonathannat 6y ago
  there's also alot more chinese students studying abroad, compared to the old days. The creme of the crop stays, and the rest goes back.
  - airstrike 6y ago
    The "rest" is still significantly better educated than those who never left, which implies they can fuel additional growth in China
  - hobofan 6y ago
    Do they actually have the freedom to decide to leave China?
- ethbr0 6y ago
  The USSR worked hard on semiconductors and airplane engines, but ultimately failed to keep up with the West. Turns out, people with the means generally prefer living in countries with (a) individual freedom and rights, (b) freedom of the press, (c) an independent judiciary, & (d) economic surplus that responds to demand for luxury goods. We can whataboutism on where the West currently stands with regards to these things, but if you're pro- and con- ing various options as an educated professional then you have a choice. And if culture is a major consideration, then you could do worse than the Chinese communities in neighboring democratic states, or the literal democratic Chinese island...

varjag 6y ago

> China does have one compelling advantage: its enormous population. Which so far translates into ability to outcompete robots on cost and not much else.

aussiegreenie 6y ago

China between 1919-1949 China was ruled by "Warlordism" a weak central government and local strongmen controlling 10-100 million people. Uncle Xi is killing China. After Mao the whole political model was "collective" so no one could become so strong he would become an Emperor, Xi changes that by removing the two term (10 Yrs) rule of leadership. The CCP had one thing for legitimacy, economic growth. For 30 years China become richer and freer. In 2007 even people in HK were proud to be Chinese. That is not the case anymore. China peaked internationally in 2017. Post-Xi China whenever that occurs will be a large poor country surrounded by enemies without easy access to global markets. It is impossible to use any Chinese product without the possibility of the use of slave or child labour within the supply chain. China is more likely to return to Warlordism than become rich. TL:DR - China became richer and freer post-Mao and now that process has reversed and China is becoming less free and poorer.

wesleywt 6y ago

The incentives are pretty bad for researchers in China. Cheating and corruption is the best way to progress rather than innovation. I find it waste of time reading a Chinese scientific article, yet Chinese scientist in the US or Canada are brilliant.