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The era of CCP economic rise is over. Middle income trap and aging demographics dictate as much. CCP will now have to contend with - internal turmoil - poli

The era of CCP economic rise is over. Middle income trap and aging demographics dictate as much. CCP will now have to contend with - internal turmoil - political infighting - encirclement by democracies (India, Japan, Australia, US, UK, Canada, France, South Korea, Taiwan). Once Merkel is out in sept 2021, Germany will be onboard - negative sentiment from most of population in the world due to covid - exploding debt/bankruptcies - lack of efficient feedback loops to self correct, as dictatorship has little of that. Thus Jack Ma is no more. If you have a foreign commercial presence in China, expect - kidnapping of executives (for layoffs, unpaid bills) - no delivery for paid merchandises - seizure of molds/machines/factories (nationalization) - seizure of tangible assets (nationalization) - trademark/copyrights given to Chinese entities with no recourses.

vkou 6y ago
> If you have a foreign commercial presence in China, expect... In how many months do you expect your predictions will come true, in a way that will cause the majority of Fortune 500 firms to leave China? Three? Six? Sixty? Six hundred? I, for one, have strong doubts that the majority of those firms will ever leave China. I will also note that all of your criticisms can be applied even more-so to democracies. Internal turmoil, political infighting, negative world sentiment (for some of them), exploding debt, aging demographics, ossification of political structures and poor ability to self-correct, check, check, check. It's true that, say, the United States is not encircled, but it has a separate problem of having to over-reach to maintain an incredibly ambitious, and unsustainable overseas military presence. If those criteria were sufficient for a social collapse, then we're all living on borrowed time, and I don't see why you're singling China out as a likely point of failure.
- jonathannat 6y ago
  most of it is already happening, check chinalawblog (including tales/warnings of kidnapping). the only thing that hasn't happened full scale is nationalization of tangible assets, such as molds, machines or factories. But if you owe some (made up) bills to the local government when you close your factories, the local government will prevent you from grabbing your stuff.
  - vkou 6y ago
    So, when do you expect social collapse, and most of Fortune 500 pulling their presence out of the country? Give me a rough timeline. Three months? Six? Sixty? Six hundred? It's easy to make non-specific, non-committal predictions of doom and gloom. I can say with absolute certainty that, say, the Euro will become worthless sometime between now and the heat death of the universe. My prediction is as useless, as it is accurate. What kind of prediction, with what kind of error bar, are you ready to commit to?
- coredog64 6y ago
  Prior to this, seeing the writing on the wall, my previous (Fortune 100) employer was already on the way out. I think there will still be plenty of F500 companies that stay, but they will do a better job of fire walking their business from their operations in China and walking away from all but the highest returns.
- tkinom 6y ago
  Current CPP leaderships are blaming US/West for all the trouble. Xi is just a little red guard grew up from the culture revolution the only economic solution solution was follow Mao's "Nationalize" way.
- loceng 6y ago
  That's a trillion dollar question. Firms will leave China once democracies around the world make a multi-lateral trade agreement and put our money elsewhere that's aligned with our core beliefs including or primarily free speech, say India. Get the agreement in place, have it come into effect in 2 years ahead of time, provide investment grants or loans to businesses (globally if they're aligned with democracy/free speech) who want to manufacture whatever will fill a gap in production for what the 80% of what consumers buy currently from China. CCP could easily prevent this redirection of resources by allowing free speech and having elections.
  - blackrock 6y ago
    Have you ever been to India? The fine people of India believes that cows are sacred gods. They also believe that drinking cow piss is good for you. They also believe that bathing and wallowing in cow sh*t is healthy for you, because it’ll help strengthen your immune system. India has a very very long way to go. But hey, India has free speech and elections. So maybe you should tell all your multi-national corporations to relocate to India.
- rmk 6y ago
  With the election of Biden, the US will shift to a more cooperative strategy for containing China. There will be a higher emphasis on building/repairing relationships with allies in the region, so that American blood is not spilled (allies will help put boots on the ground, backed by American guarantees). How long this will continue and whether this strategy will continue regardless of the changes of leadership in the US is open to question, though. As part of the 'pivot to Asia' initiated by Obama, America has helped many neighbors of Israel make peace with it formally. Iran vs. Saudi Arabia is the only other major engagement in the region. America will also likely extricate itself from Afghanistan completely in order to focus its resources on containing China.
blisterpeanuts 6y ago
Yes, many good points, but some of the same problems exist in the West and in the Asian democracies: covid, debt, aging demographics. China does have one compelling advantage: its enormous population. Even if a horrible plague or even a civil war happened and 100m people died, they still have plenty of people to accomplish anything they want. They have Ph.D. scientists, many trained at top Western universities, who are equal to anyone in the West. They are doing an amazing job in manufacturing and technology; virtually all high value objects are manufactured in China, and, increasingly, designed there as well. They're pushing into automotive and aerospace and every other field. I don't see them slowing down any time soon.
- bobthepanda 6y ago
  The one child policy makes China’s aging problem particularly rapid, at a time when they are not wealthy enough per capita to make the transition. One child supports two parents and four grandparents. Plus a low retirement age that is only now getting extended. (60 for men, 55 for women previously). Over a third of Shanghai is over 60, as is a quarter in Beijing, Tianjin, etc. Now the one child policy has been relaxed, but it will take a while before extra kids are available to work, and at this point it’s sort of a cultural norm to have one kid (plus prohibitively expensive to raise two kids and provide them decent resources).
  - blisterpeanuts 6y ago
    True, they're in trouble demographically. Projections I have read in the past (before one-child was repealed) suggested they would lose 400m people by end of 21st Century. 400m! Meanwhile, the West has its own implosion well underway... but, unlike China we have immigration. The U.S. population is still growing thanks to immigration, as is Europe's, even though both regions have replacement-level or below-replacement birthrates by natives. Immigrants tend to have higher birthrates however.
  - Ericson2314 6y ago
    I would think this is actually good for them, as more internal demand relative to supply will help further transition away from exports, and also help increases their productivity (at least if they make working hours less insane).
dk1138 6y ago
Is this a documented sequence of events? Is there a book/resource to read into more details on these types of evens played out?
jjcc 6y ago
Maybe your analysis make sense. But I often look opposite analysis to defeat the algorithm of social media. Personally I think it's partially responsible for there are 2 different realities that lead to the Jan 6 Capitol event. Here's a piece that draws quite different picture from yours. https://worldaffairs.blog/2020/12/31/from-terrified-to-triumphant-how-china-flipped-2020/ https://worldaffairs.blog/2020/12/31/from-terrified-to-trium...
- jonathannat 6y ago
  a quick glimpse of the link you sent, alot of the economic data depends on you trusting the data coming from a dictatorship which obfuscates every clear economic signals. So I don't buy it personally. As for politics, China aligned itself with small countries/other dictatorships, while the big democracies that composes of 80+% of the world's economies united. As for tech, you need to also believe the claims they made.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
- hker 6y ago
  When comparing the outcome of covid, I think we need to consider more than the response of the government. The civil society played a key role, too. Regarding covid, Taiwan did very well, despite being very close to China. - The government responded quickly, tracing everyone who entered Taiwan to control for spread of covid. - The civil society took it seriously, with the experience of SARS. Taiwan beat covid because the society has trust in science and the government [1]. [1]: https://www.wired.com/story/how-taiwans-unlikely-digital-minister-hacked-the-pandemic/ https://www.wired.com/story/how-taiwans-unlikely-digital-min... P.S. your link has a very pro-Beijing tone throughout: - It calls India and Australia as the vassal states of the US, and framing China's actions towards Australia as sending a warning to other vassal states. - The numbers cited there are not comprehensive: when measuring space launches, not counting SpaceX.
- bordercases 6y ago
  > In the midst of all these problems, America’s vassal states — India and Australia — saber rattled in ominous ways. [...] Australia was spanked very hard as a warning to other vassals. If Australia slips into a recession, the next Prime Minister will be a lot less racist and uncouth. And perhaps Australia will be more careful about committing war crimes in Afghanistan and elsewhere. "Objective Nonpartisan Insightful", really now! I think your source needs to learn how to write non-editorial English.
newen 6y ago
Westerners have been saying the era of Chinese economic rise is over for more than 20 years now. For pretty much all of the same reasons. One would think the lesson would be learned after 20 years.
- jonathannat 6y ago
  over the years, demographics change, macro economics change, geopolitics change, etc etc etc
hehehaha 6y ago
I agree with most of these. China is massively underestimating the implications from its widening wealth gap. People in China are not stupid.

vkou 6y ago

> If you have a foreign commercial presence in China, expect... In how many months do you expect your predictions will come true, in a way that will cause the majority of Fortune 500 firms to leave China? Three? Six? Sixty? Six hundred? I, for one, have strong doubts that the majority of those firms will ever leave China. I will also note that all of your criticisms can be applied even more-so to democracies. Internal turmoil, political infighting, negative world sentiment (for some of them), exploding debt, aging demographics, ossification of political structures and poor ability to self-correct, check, check, check. It's true that, say, the United States is not encircled, but it has a separate problem of having to over-reach to maintain an incredibly ambitious, and unsustainable overseas military presence. If those criteria were sufficient for a social collapse, then we're all living on borrowed time, and I don't see why you're singling China out as a likely point of failure.

jonathannat 6y ago
most of it is already happening, check chinalawblog (including tales/warnings of kidnapping). the only thing that hasn't happened full scale is nationalization of tangible assets, such as molds, machines or factories. But if you owe some (made up) bills to the local government when you close your factories, the local government will prevent you from grabbing your stuff.
- vkou 6y ago
  So, when do you expect social collapse, and most of Fortune 500 pulling their presence out of the country? Give me a rough timeline. Three months? Six? Sixty? Six hundred? It's easy to make non-specific, non-committal predictions of doom and gloom. I can say with absolute certainty that, say, the Euro will become worthless sometime between now and the heat death of the universe. My prediction is as useless, as it is accurate. What kind of prediction, with what kind of error bar, are you ready to commit to?
coredog64 6y ago
Prior to this, seeing the writing on the wall, my previous (Fortune 100) employer was already on the way out. I think there will still be plenty of F500 companies that stay, but they will do a better job of fire walking their business from their operations in China and walking away from all but the highest returns.
tkinom 6y ago
Current CPP leaderships are blaming US/West for all the trouble. Xi is just a little red guard grew up from the culture revolution the only economic solution solution was follow Mao's "Nationalize" way.
loceng 6y ago
That's a trillion dollar question. Firms will leave China once democracies around the world make a multi-lateral trade agreement and put our money elsewhere that's aligned with our core beliefs including or primarily free speech, say India. Get the agreement in place, have it come into effect in 2 years ahead of time, provide investment grants or loans to businesses (globally if they're aligned with democracy/free speech) who want to manufacture whatever will fill a gap in production for what the 80% of what consumers buy currently from China. CCP could easily prevent this redirection of resources by allowing free speech and having elections.
- blackrock 6y ago
  Have you ever been to India? The fine people of India believes that cows are sacred gods. They also believe that drinking cow piss is good for you. They also believe that bathing and wallowing in cow sh*t is healthy for you, because it’ll help strengthen your immune system. India has a very very long way to go. But hey, India has free speech and elections. So maybe you should tell all your multi-national corporations to relocate to India.
rmk 6y ago
With the election of Biden, the US will shift to a more cooperative strategy for containing China. There will be a higher emphasis on building/repairing relationships with allies in the region, so that American blood is not spilled (allies will help put boots on the ground, backed by American guarantees). How long this will continue and whether this strategy will continue regardless of the changes of leadership in the US is open to question, though. As part of the 'pivot to Asia' initiated by Obama, America has helped many neighbors of Israel make peace with it formally. Iran vs. Saudi Arabia is the only other major engagement in the region. America will also likely extricate itself from Afghanistan completely in order to focus its resources on containing China.

blisterpeanuts 6y ago

Yes, many good points, but some of the same problems exist in the West and in the Asian democracies: covid, debt, aging demographics. China does have one compelling advantage: its enormous population. Even if a horrible plague or even a civil war happened and 100m people died, they still have plenty of people to accomplish anything they want. They have Ph.D. scientists, many trained at top Western universities, who are equal to anyone in the West. They are doing an amazing job in manufacturing and technology; virtually all high value objects are manufactured in China, and, increasingly, designed there as well. They're pushing into automotive and aerospace and every other field. I don't see them slowing down any time soon.

bobthepanda 6y ago
The one child policy makes China’s aging problem particularly rapid, at a time when they are not wealthy enough per capita to make the transition. One child supports two parents and four grandparents. Plus a low retirement age that is only now getting extended. (60 for men, 55 for women previously). Over a third of Shanghai is over 60, as is a quarter in Beijing, Tianjin, etc. Now the one child policy has been relaxed, but it will take a while before extra kids are available to work, and at this point it’s sort of a cultural norm to have one kid (plus prohibitively expensive to raise two kids and provide them decent resources).
- blisterpeanuts 6y ago
  True, they're in trouble demographically. Projections I have read in the past (before one-child was repealed) suggested they would lose 400m people by end of 21st Century. 400m! Meanwhile, the West has its own implosion well underway... but, unlike China we have immigration. The U.S. population is still growing thanks to immigration, as is Europe's, even though both regions have replacement-level or below-replacement birthrates by natives. Immigrants tend to have higher birthrates however.
- Ericson2314 6y ago
  I would think this is actually good for them, as more internal demand relative to supply will help further transition away from exports, and also help increases their productivity (at least if they make working hours less insane).

dk1138 6y ago

Is this a documented sequence of events? Is there a book/resource to read into more details on these types of evens played out?

jjcc 6y ago

Maybe your analysis make sense. But I often look opposite analysis to defeat the algorithm of social media. Personally I think it's partially responsible for there are 2 different realities that lead to the Jan 6 Capitol event. Here's a piece that draws quite different picture from yours. https://worldaffairs.blog/2020/12/31/from-terrified-to-triumphant-how-china-flipped-2020/ https://worldaffairs.blog/2020/12/31/from-terrified-to-trium...

jonathannat 6y ago
a quick glimpse of the link you sent, alot of the economic data depends on you trusting the data coming from a dictatorship which obfuscates every clear economic signals. So I don't buy it personally. As for politics, China aligned itself with small countries/other dictatorships, while the big democracies that composes of 80+% of the world's economies united. As for tech, you need to also believe the claims they made.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
hker 6y ago
When comparing the outcome of covid, I think we need to consider more than the response of the government. The civil society played a key role, too. Regarding covid, Taiwan did very well, despite being very close to China. - The government responded quickly, tracing everyone who entered Taiwan to control for spread of covid. - The civil society took it seriously, with the experience of SARS. Taiwan beat covid because the society has trust in science and the government [1]. [1]: https://www.wired.com/story/how-taiwans-unlikely-digital-minister-hacked-the-pandemic/ https://www.wired.com/story/how-taiwans-unlikely-digital-min... P.S. your link has a very pro-Beijing tone throughout: - It calls India and Australia as the vassal states of the US, and framing China's actions towards Australia as sending a warning to other vassal states. - The numbers cited there are not comprehensive: when measuring space launches, not counting SpaceX.
bordercases 6y ago
> In the midst of all these problems, America’s vassal states — India and Australia — saber rattled in ominous ways. [...] Australia was spanked very hard as a warning to other vassals. If Australia slips into a recession, the next Prime Minister will be a lot less racist and uncouth. And perhaps Australia will be more careful about committing war crimes in Afghanistan and elsewhere. "Objective Nonpartisan Insightful", really now! I think your source needs to learn how to write non-editorial English.

newen 6y ago

Westerners have been saying the era of Chinese economic rise is over for more than 20 years now. For pretty much all of the same reasons. One would think the lesson would be learned after 20 years.

jonathannat 6y ago
over the years, demographics change, macro economics change, geopolitics change, etc etc etc

hehehaha 6y ago

I agree with most of these. China is massively underestimating the implications from its widening wealth gap. People in China are not stupid.