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> China economically overtaking the US are overblown. They never really stood a chance. Militarily, economically, socially, culturally and spiritually they off

by f430 6y ago

> China economically overtaking the US are overblown. They never really stood a chance. Militarily, economically, socially, culturally and spiritually they offer no better alternative to the American one. Similar to how "China owns US treasuries and can crash the US dollar" was the common trope until recently, the US called them out the trillion dollar loan to Qing dynasty which was transferred from KMT to CCP after Chiang Kai Shek's defeat (and really a symbol of CCP's legitimacy over Taipei), and China began buying more US treasuries to increase its US dollar dependence. Without HK, the yuan-hkd-usd peg is collapsing and CCP is running low on US dollars. Kyle Bass's interview with Guo Wengui explains this in detail [1] I even had Chinese students condescendingly tell me that China is taking over and everybody will be speaking Chinese by 2020 back in 2005. If Winnie the Pooh, censoring wikipedia, university students protesting over Tibet, Tianmen Square massacre, organ harvesting of Falun Gong (they are "scientology" so its okay they said) causes the security apparatus kick into high gear then you really are the complete opposite of anti-fragility which is what the US is. US is anti-fragile, authoritarians are not because they are susceptible to even the smallest shock in the economy or the mindset of its citizens, so they use excessive violence and fear to maintain its power. They don't last at all. It's more likely that people who made a lot of money working with/in China have an extremely skewed view of the world. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBl05xNq_AU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBl05xNq_AU

gedy 6y ago
I used to think that way, but demographics seem to favor China growth for much more people for longer than US and Europe. Seems that will drive growth quite a bit.
- f430 6y ago
  China has a rapidly aging demographic due to their one child policy and preference for male leading to a skewed gender ratio. All of this compared to its neighbors, US & Europe which simply uses immigration, leaves China in an unrecoverable state. The leadership knows this and all they can do is kick the can down the road. Unless they come up with robots or start opening up immigration (which will be a hard sell), you are going to have old single men competing for whatever economic avenues they can find. Single men living in dense urban zones in poverty is guarantee for unrest. ex) Syria PRC is Qing Dynasty 2.0 and it will be divided up by foreign powers when its weak. Sort of like how NATO & EU prevents Russia from retaking its former satellites permanently and this is exactly why Putin is in Crimea, Georgia, and now Latvia (massive open terrain allows fast ground, air invasion of Moscow and this has always been the central core of Russia both past and the present security policy). This time, it will not be allowed to unify. The West, China's neighbors who are after its loot, will simply allow all 55 minorities to declare independence, and massive civil war is a real possibility between competing regions. If you understand China, they are forced to follow Beijing. People from South are more westernized and business minded. The southern coastal provinces are best poised for economic recovery and could be the favored state. When the smoke clears, a unified Korea is in the best position to take over because of its soft power in the region. Nobody forced people to become America, people put it on themselves to become American. This is the power of culture and China simply played its hands too early and were caught stealing chips. Figuratively and literally
leafmeal 6y ago
Your claims about social, cultural and spiritual inferiority sound like outright zenophobia/racism.

by f430 6y ago

gedy 6y ago

I used to think that way, but demographics seem to favor China growth for much more people for longer than US and Europe. Seems that will drive growth quite a bit.

f430 6y ago
China has a rapidly aging demographic due to their one child policy and preference for male leading to a skewed gender ratio. All of this compared to its neighbors, US & Europe which simply uses immigration, leaves China in an unrecoverable state. The leadership knows this and all they can do is kick the can down the road. Unless they come up with robots or start opening up immigration (which will be a hard sell), you are going to have old single men competing for whatever economic avenues they can find. Single men living in dense urban zones in poverty is guarantee for unrest. ex) Syria PRC is Qing Dynasty 2.0 and it will be divided up by foreign powers when its weak. Sort of like how NATO & EU prevents Russia from retaking its former satellites permanently and this is exactly why Putin is in Crimea, Georgia, and now Latvia (massive open terrain allows fast ground, air invasion of Moscow and this has always been the central core of Russia both past and the present security policy). This time, it will not be allowed to unify. The West, China's neighbors who are after its loot, will simply allow all 55 minorities to declare independence, and massive civil war is a real possibility between competing regions. If you understand China, they are forced to follow Beijing. People from South are more westernized and business minded. The southern coastal provinces are best poised for economic recovery and could be the favored state. When the smoke clears, a unified Korea is in the best position to take over because of its soft power in the region. Nobody forced people to become America, people put it on themselves to become American. This is the power of culture and China simply played its hands too early and were caught stealing chips. Figuratively and literally

leafmeal 6y ago

Your claims about social, cultural and spiritual inferiority sound like outright zenophobia/racism.