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How do China's ambitions stack up with their upcoming demographic changes? This is often framed as "Will China growth rich before it grows old?": * https://www

How do China's ambitions stack up with their upcoming demographic changes? This is often framed as "Will China growth rich before it grows old?": * https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-18091107 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-18091107 * https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/2095326/opinion-ignore-silk-road-hubris-china-will-grow-old-it-gets-rich https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/2095326/opini... * https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/china-is-very-likely-to-grow-old-before-it-grows-rich/news-story/74151f0dc5405056526334e7f482a74a https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/china-is-very-li...

throw0101a 6y ago
On a related note, while some may think that this is a consequence of China's one-child policy, a reasonable argument can be made that the policy was actually completely unnecessary: the fertility rates had already started plummeting for the 15 years prior to it being announced due to urbanization and other factors: * https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2016/october/china-one-child-policy-effect https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2016/october/china... * http://blogs.reuters.com/data-dive/2013/11/18/chinas-one-child-policy-policy-in-charts/ http://blogs.reuters.com/data-dive/2013/11/18/chinas-one-chi...
- hker 6y ago
  > the fertility rates had already started plummeting for the 15 years prior to it being announced Another article supporting this statement, on Chinese demography [1][2]. You may find it interesting. [1]: https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/chinese-demography https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/chinese-demography [2]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25558016 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25558016
hker 6y ago
> How do China's ambitions stack up with their upcoming demographic changes? Personal take: As long as Xi is in power, China’s ambitions are unlikely to scale back (at least on the surface), for otherwise it would be his failures. For example, after Xi set the goal to clear poverty in China by 2020, even after COVID, China did not give up on the goal, ignoring if achieving the goal on surface is sustainable: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/31/world/asia/china-poverty-xi-jinping.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/31/world/asia/china-poverty-...

throw0101a 6y ago

On a related note, while some may think that this is a consequence of China's one-child policy, a reasonable argument can be made that the policy was actually completely unnecessary: the fertility rates had already started plummeting for the 15 years prior to it being announced due to urbanization and other factors: * https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2016/october/china-one-child-policy-effect https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2016/october/china... * http://blogs.reuters.com/data-dive/2013/11/18/chinas-one-child-policy-policy-in-charts/ http://blogs.reuters.com/data-dive/2013/11/18/chinas-one-chi...

hker 6y ago
> the fertility rates had already started plummeting for the 15 years prior to it being announced Another article supporting this statement, on Chinese demography [1][2]. You may find it interesting. [1]: https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/chinese-demography https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/chinese-demography [2]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25558016 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25558016

hker 6y ago

> How do China's ambitions stack up with their upcoming demographic changes? Personal take: As long as Xi is in power, China’s ambitions are unlikely to scale back (at least on the surface), for otherwise it would be his failures. For example, after Xi set the goal to clear poverty in China by 2020, even after COVID, China did not give up on the goal, ignoring if achieving the goal on surface is sustainable: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/31/world/asia/china-poverty-xi-jinping.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/31/world/asia/china-poverty-...