5 ms·

Another good read: https://rameznaam.com/2020/05/14/solars-future-is-insanely-cheap-2020/ https://rameznaam.com/2020/05/14/solars-future-is-insanely-c... Sola

Another good read: https://rameznaam.com/2020/05/14/solars-future-is-insanely-cheap-2020/ https://rameznaam.com/2020/05/14/solars-future-is-insanely-c... Solar follow exponential cheaper trajectory with no signs of slowing down. Virtually all forecast underestimated the trend. In less than a decade solar will be way cheaper than operating cost of gas or coal plants. It make sense to overprovision capacity and shut down pretty much anything that could be shut down during the day. Plus cheap spurious electricity opens a lot of new frontiers.

polote 6y ago
And previous discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23185166 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23185166
igravious 6y ago
“A naive observer, reading the reports of falling prices for photovoltaic cells and wind turbines, might conclude that the rising shares of solar and wind power will bring a new era of falling electricity prices. Just the opposite has been true.” https://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/policy/electricity-its-wonderfully-affordable-but-its-no-longer-getting-any-cheaper https://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/policy/electricity-its-wond... this is the reality “Before the year 2000, when Germany embarked on its large-scale and expensive Energiewende (energy transition), that country’s residential electricity prices were low and declining, bottoming at less than €0.14/kWh ($.13/kWh, using the prevailing exchange rate) in 2000.” “By 2015, Germany’s combined solar and wind capacity of nearly 84 gigawatts had surpassed the total installed in fossil-fueled plants, and by March 2019 more than 20 percent of all electricity came from the new renewables. However, over an 18-year period (2000 to 2018) electricity prices more than doubled, to €0.31/ kWh. The E.U.’s largest economy thus has the continent’s highest electricity prices, followed by heavily wind-dependent Denmark, at €0.3/kWh.” and finally, “A similar contrast can be seen in the United States. In California, where the new renewables have taken an increasing share, electricity prices have been rising five times as fast as the national mean and are now nearly 60 percent higher than the countrywide average.”
- jakozaur 6y ago
  1. Early adopters pays premium. Especially true for technology that gets exponential cheaper. Rich countries such as Germany, Denmark and California pay R&D for rest of us. 2. If not renewables or other form of non-fossil fuel, the price of energy would be increasing anyway. We are reaching peak of fossil fuel production. Fracking make it cheap temporarily, but overall we are depleting cheap fields and would be forced to use ones which are harder to access.
  - andromeduck 6y ago
    How do you explain France?
- kilotaras 6y ago
  > bottoming at less than €0.14/kWh + ???/kWh in environmental cost.
  - andromeduck 6y ago
    Versus France, Germany is only twice as dirty for only twice the price which seems like a pretty good deal if you ask me. IMO the policy has been a natitonal disaster for German, not only have prices increased without materially offsetting carbon, it has also made them much more dependent on Russian gas which increases the economic cost of standing up to Russian aggression in Ukraine and elsewhere. The promises of jobs from domestic production of panels also never quite panned out due to competition from Europe and installation/maintenance related jobs are likely offset by reduced competitiveness from electrical costs not to mention increased strategic dependence on China for components. Wind has been quite a bit better but locals are starting to push back from what I've been reading.
    - ohgodplsno 6y ago
      > Germany is only twice as dirty Germany emits 485g of CO2 per kWh. [1] France emits 80g of CO2 per kWh. [2] [1] https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en/press/pressinformation/co2-emissions-per-kilowatt-hour-of-electricity-in https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en/press/pressinformation/co2... [2] https://www.rte-france.com/eco2mix/les-emissions-de-co2-par-kwh-produit-en-france https://www.rte-france.com/eco2mix/les-emissions-de-co2-par-...

polote 6y ago

And previous discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23185166 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23185166

igravious 6y ago

“A naive observer, reading the reports of falling prices for photovoltaic cells and wind turbines, might conclude that the rising shares of solar and wind power will bring a new era of falling electricity prices. Just the opposite has been true.” https://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/policy/electricity-its-wonderfully-affordable-but-its-no-longer-getting-any-cheaper https://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/policy/electricity-its-wond... this is the reality “Before the year 2000, when Germany embarked on its large-scale and expensive Energiewende (energy transition), that country’s residential electricity prices were low and declining, bottoming at less than €0.14/kWh ($.13/kWh, using the prevailing exchange rate) in 2000.” “By 2015, Germany’s combined solar and wind capacity of nearly 84 gigawatts had surpassed the total installed in fossil-fueled plants, and by March 2019 more than 20 percent of all electricity came from the new renewables. However, over an 18-year period (2000 to 2018) electricity prices more than doubled, to €0.31/ kWh. The E.U.’s largest economy thus has the continent’s highest electricity prices, followed by heavily wind-dependent Denmark, at €0.3/kWh.” and finally, “A similar contrast can be seen in the United States. In California, where the new renewables have taken an increasing share, electricity prices have been rising five times as fast as the national mean and are now nearly 60 percent higher than the countrywide average.”

jakozaur 6y ago
1. Early adopters pays premium. Especially true for technology that gets exponential cheaper. Rich countries such as Germany, Denmark and California pay R&D for rest of us. 2. If not renewables or other form of non-fossil fuel, the price of energy would be increasing anyway. We are reaching peak of fossil fuel production. Fracking make it cheap temporarily, but overall we are depleting cheap fields and would be forced to use ones which are harder to access.
- andromeduck 6y ago
  How do you explain France?
kilotaras 6y ago
> bottoming at less than €0.14/kWh + ???/kWh in environmental cost.
- andromeduck 6y ago
  Versus France, Germany is only twice as dirty for only twice the price which seems like a pretty good deal if you ask me. IMO the policy has been a natitonal disaster for German, not only have prices increased without materially offsetting carbon, it has also made them much more dependent on Russian gas which increases the economic cost of standing up to Russian aggression in Ukraine and elsewhere. The promises of jobs from domestic production of panels also never quite panned out due to competition from Europe and installation/maintenance related jobs are likely offset by reduced competitiveness from electrical costs not to mention increased strategic dependence on China for components. Wind has been quite a bit better but locals are starting to push back from what I've been reading.
  - ohgodplsno 6y ago
    > Germany is only twice as dirty Germany emits 485g of CO2 per kWh. [1] France emits 80g of CO2 per kWh. [2] [1] https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en/press/pressinformation/co2-emissions-per-kilowatt-hour-of-electricity-in https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en/press/pressinformation/co2... [2] https://www.rte-france.com/eco2mix/les-emissions-de-co2-par-kwh-produit-en-france https://www.rte-france.com/eco2mix/les-emissions-de-co2-par-...