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There are (somewhat awkward, but English) statistics for Berlin at https://www.berlin.de/sen/uvk/verkehr/verkehrsplanung/radverkehr/weitere-radinfrastruktur/zae

There are (somewhat awkward, but English) statistics for Berlin at https://www.berlin.de/sen/uvk/verkehr/verkehrsplanung/radverkehr/weitere-radinfrastruktur/zaehlstellen-und-fahrradbarometer/karte/ https://www.berlin.de/sen/uvk/verkehr/verkehrsplanung/radver... (No way to link to configured maps, unfortunately). Some numbers. These are total monthly counts of riders observed at the same 17 measurement points: 2019 2020 Sep 1,670,000 2,387,000. + 43 % Dec 900,000 1,100,000. + 22 % That's quite an increase year-over-year! The December number are lower, but possibly more impressive considering it was rather lockdown-ish and general mobility fell somewhat. It's also a good datapoint to counter concerns about the weather. It's interesting that there's an effect going on here that's somewhat close to a Giffen good (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giffen_good https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giffen_good): People avoid public transport and any single one might opt for a car instead. But because road capacity is fixed (that's income in the analogy), more of it needs to be devoted to the most efficient option, i. e. bikes. So the city converted car to bike lanes, and car traffic is actually down.

jamil7 6y ago
I'm hoping that some of the pop-up bike lanes we had around the city during the summer due to the lockdown will either return this year or drive some decision making around bike infrastructure in the city, although it always seems too little to late and to move so slowly. With an increase in cyclists last year we also sadly had an increase in cyclist deaths.
CaptArmchair 6y ago
> It's also a good datapoint to counter concerns about the weather. That statistic only observes a change in behaviour. It doesn't explain why it changed. So, I think that claim can/should be falsified: If there's an increase in bike usage, that's not because people feel the weather - in it's own regard - is less of an impediment to prefer biking over public transport. It's because people choose enduring changing weather conditions over accepting serious risk to their health for the sake of convenience. > It's interesting that there's an effect going on here that's somewhat close to a Giffen good According to Wikipedia [1] > There are three necessary preconditions for this situation to arise:[citation needed] > the good in question must be an inferior good, > there must be a lack of close substitute goods, and > the goods must constitute a substantial percentage of the buyer's income, but not such > a substantial percentage of the buyer's income that none of the associated normal > goods are consumed. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giffen_good https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giffen_good So, if the only other close alternate to bicycling was public transportation, and other options (car) are because their costs outweigh the benefits, then biking would be a Giffen good. This can be explained either because the perceived costs of the alternative - public transportation - became prohibitively expensive in terms of an increased health risk and the potentially associated costs that come with that risk (death, disabilities, healthcare costs, income loss,...). Or because people are now more willing to accept changing weather conditions (per your claim). Of course the only way to confirm this is to actually do a survey and gauge the motivations that prompted a population to change their behaviour. As an anecdotal aside: I was a heavy user of public transportation. I switched to going on foot, or taking my bike to get around exactly because of the pandemic.
- IfOnlyYouKnew 6y ago
  As to weather, I was commenting on the relative number between summer and winter. In both years, they hold up better than I would have thought, at around 50%. That would fit with, for example, commuters using the bike year-round, with the other half in summer consisting of tourism, generally increased activity, joyrides, etc. As to Giffen: people are shifting public transport -> car & bike. The "budget" (road capacity) is fixed and close to full utilisation. Increased demand with inelastic supply results "inflation", which is the somewhat convoluted way the income effect comes about. Aaaand... yeah, I can't quite remember how I made the next part fit. so you may be right.
Steltek 6y ago
It'd be interesting to see the corresponding public transit numbers. In the US, I'm not optimistic about a bike revolution lasting past covid. We've seen some new bike infra being deployed in Boston but not much more than we'd be getting anyway. When you say car traffic, I presume congestion and not volume of cars. I'm sure volume is down overall and I recall from discussions about congestion pricing, even a 10% decrease in volume can result in congestion completely dissipating. In normal times, Induced Demand would lead to volume going back up as transit users convert back to cars.
- sremani 6y ago
  Most US Public Transportation agencies publish their KPIs. DFW Metro: https://dart.org/about/dartkpi.asp https://dart.org/about/dartkpi.asp
matsemann 6y ago
I'm an avid biker, and commute by bike all year around even in harsh nordic winter climate. But my numbers for 2020 are faaar lower than usual. Normally I would bike to and from work 5 times a week, to swimming 3 times a week, to meet a friend for jogging, to the mall, etc. But now all those things are closed, so I use the bike for something maybe once a week instead. So I hope and believe the numbers will be even greater for 20211, actually. Multiple new people with bikes, and soon people will move about as usual.
- CydeWeys 6y ago
  Similar situation here. I live in NYC and commuted year-round to work via bicycle for 5 years straight ... and then COVID happened, I haven't even been allowed into the office in 9 months, and my bicycling activity has correspondingly plummeted off a cliff. I now do most of my biking on weekends (for errands and such), which was far from true before March. So, it's amazing how much the cycling numbers here have gone up even with people like me staying home. I'm looking forward to seeing how many people are cycling once it's all over. Will people like me going back to cycling be added on top of all the others who switched from subway to cycling, or will they go back to subway?
  - low_common 6y ago
    I did the exact opposite as you. I was a commuter biker before Covid and then once that stopped, I got Strava and took my bike all over the five boroughs. I was biking 100 miles a week until December when it got a little too cold for me. I added a gravel bike to my collection and took that out of the city on weekends. 2020 was the year of the bike!
    - CydeWeys 6y ago
      I've just been doing lots of running instead as exercise. I don't actually enjoy a lot of the biking in the city that much. It's too often too crowded and/or feels just a little bit unsafe because of driver misbehavior. I've done the whole 100 km ride up to Nyack and back on 9W thing and ... those cars man.
Mauricebranagh 6y ago
Probably because people avoided public transport (busses and trams) you need to see this data as well.
mswann 6y ago
General mobility in Berlin 2020 compared to 2019 [0] according to Robert Koch Institute (RKI) in: Sep -5 % to -13 % Dec -20 % to -41 % [incomplete data] [0] https://www.covid-19-mobility.org/current-mobility/ https://www.covid-19-mobility.org/current-mobility/
- llampx 6y ago
  Up until early September the weather was quite warm and the COVID rates were low. Both were not the case in December.

jamil7 6y ago

I'm hoping that some of the pop-up bike lanes we had around the city during the summer due to the lockdown will either return this year or drive some decision making around bike infrastructure in the city, although it always seems too little to late and to move so slowly. With an increase in cyclists last year we also sadly had an increase in cyclist deaths.

CaptArmchair 6y ago

> It's also a good datapoint to counter concerns about the weather. That statistic only observes a change in behaviour. It doesn't explain why it changed. So, I think that claim can/should be falsified: If there's an increase in bike usage, that's not because people feel the weather - in it's own regard - is less of an impediment to prefer biking over public transport. It's because people choose enduring changing weather conditions over accepting serious risk to their health for the sake of convenience. > It's interesting that there's an effect going on here that's somewhat close to a Giffen good According to Wikipedia [1] > There are three necessary preconditions for this situation to arise:[citation needed] > the good in question must be an inferior good, > there must be a lack of close substitute goods, and > the goods must constitute a substantial percentage of the buyer's income, but not such > a substantial percentage of the buyer's income that none of the associated normal > goods are consumed. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giffen_good https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giffen_good So, if the only other close alternate to bicycling was public transportation, and other options (car) are because their costs outweigh the benefits, then biking would be a Giffen good. This can be explained either because the perceived costs of the alternative - public transportation - became prohibitively expensive in terms of an increased health risk and the potentially associated costs that come with that risk (death, disabilities, healthcare costs, income loss,...). Or because people are now more willing to accept changing weather conditions (per your claim). Of course the only way to confirm this is to actually do a survey and gauge the motivations that prompted a population to change their behaviour. As an anecdotal aside: I was a heavy user of public transportation. I switched to going on foot, or taking my bike to get around exactly because of the pandemic.

IfOnlyYouKnew 6y ago
As to weather, I was commenting on the relative number between summer and winter. In both years, they hold up better than I would have thought, at around 50%. That would fit with, for example, commuters using the bike year-round, with the other half in summer consisting of tourism, generally increased activity, joyrides, etc. As to Giffen: people are shifting public transport -> car & bike. The "budget" (road capacity) is fixed and close to full utilisation. Increased demand with inelastic supply results "inflation", which is the somewhat convoluted way the income effect comes about. Aaaand... yeah, I can't quite remember how I made the next part fit. so you may be right.

Steltek 6y ago

It'd be interesting to see the corresponding public transit numbers. In the US, I'm not optimistic about a bike revolution lasting past covid. We've seen some new bike infra being deployed in Boston but not much more than we'd be getting anyway. When you say car traffic, I presume congestion and not volume of cars. I'm sure volume is down overall and I recall from discussions about congestion pricing, even a 10% decrease in volume can result in congestion completely dissipating. In normal times, Induced Demand would lead to volume going back up as transit users convert back to cars.

sremani 6y ago
Most US Public Transportation agencies publish their KPIs. DFW Metro: https://dart.org/about/dartkpi.asp https://dart.org/about/dartkpi.asp

matsemann 6y ago

I'm an avid biker, and commute by bike all year around even in harsh nordic winter climate. But my numbers for 2020 are faaar lower than usual. Normally I would bike to and from work 5 times a week, to swimming 3 times a week, to meet a friend for jogging, to the mall, etc. But now all those things are closed, so I use the bike for something maybe once a week instead. So I hope and believe the numbers will be even greater for 20211, actually. Multiple new people with bikes, and soon people will move about as usual.

CydeWeys 6y ago
Similar situation here. I live in NYC and commuted year-round to work via bicycle for 5 years straight ... and then COVID happened, I haven't even been allowed into the office in 9 months, and my bicycling activity has correspondingly plummeted off a cliff. I now do most of my biking on weekends (for errands and such), which was far from true before March. So, it's amazing how much the cycling numbers here have gone up even with people like me staying home. I'm looking forward to seeing how many people are cycling once it's all over. Will people like me going back to cycling be added on top of all the others who switched from subway to cycling, or will they go back to subway?
- low_common 6y ago
  I did the exact opposite as you. I was a commuter biker before Covid and then once that stopped, I got Strava and took my bike all over the five boroughs. I was biking 100 miles a week until December when it got a little too cold for me. I added a gravel bike to my collection and took that out of the city on weekends. 2020 was the year of the bike!
  - CydeWeys 6y ago
    I've just been doing lots of running instead as exercise. I don't actually enjoy a lot of the biking in the city that much. It's too often too crowded and/or feels just a little bit unsafe because of driver misbehavior. I've done the whole 100 km ride up to Nyack and back on 9W thing and ... those cars man.

Mauricebranagh 6y ago

Probably because people avoided public transport (busses and trams) you need to see this data as well.

mswann 6y ago

General mobility in Berlin 2020 compared to 2019 [0] according to Robert Koch Institute (RKI) in: Sep -5 % to -13 % Dec -20 % to -41 % [incomplete data] [0] https://www.covid-19-mobility.org/current-mobility/ https://www.covid-19-mobility.org/current-mobility/

llampx 6y ago
Up until early September the weather was quite warm and the COVID rates were low. Both were not the case in December.