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This Turchin fellow seems to have missed the boat by about 20 years. The book "Generations: The History of America's Future" by Strauss and Howe was published

This Turchin fellow seems to have missed the boat by about 20 years. The book "Generations: The History of America's Future" by Strauss and Howe was published in 1991 and predicted exactly the same thing. It was a bestseller at the time. It's so well known that it's notable on Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generational_theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generatio... It predicted a "crisis of 2020" caused by a number of factors including the temperaments of baby boomers. There's an interesting interview with one of the authors here: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/28/us/politics/coronavirus-republicans-trump.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/28/us/politics/coronavirus-r...

rossdavidh 6y ago
Turchin discusses this here: http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/prophecy-fourth-turning/ http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/prophecy-fourth-turning...
zebrafish 6y ago
Also Peter Zeihan forecasted a lot of this based on demographics and finance in his first book.
ryndbfsrw 6y ago
Fascinating! I hadn’t heard of this before. The closest I’ve found in the same vein is a 1994 article by Edward Luttwak who predicted another wave of fascism in the western world driven by economic decline of the middle class: “It is only mildly amusing that nowadays the standard Republican/Tory after-dinner speech is a two-part affair, in which part one celebrates the virtues of unimpeded competition and dynamic structural change, while part two mourns the decline of the family and community ‘values’ that were eroded precisely by the forces commended in part one. Thus at the present time the core of Republican/Tory beliefs is a perfect non-sequitur. And what does the moderate Left have to offer? Only more redistribution, more public assistance, and particularist concern for particular groups that can claim victim status, from the sublime peak of elderly, handicapped, black lesbians down to the merely poor.” Link to article here. https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v16/n07/edward-luttwak/why-fascism-is-the-wave-of-the-future https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v16/n07/edward-luttwak/why-f...

rossdavidh 6y ago

Turchin discusses this here: http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/prophecy-fourth-turning/ http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/prophecy-fourth-turning...

zebrafish 6y ago

Also Peter Zeihan forecasted a lot of this based on demographics and finance in his first book.

ryndbfsrw 6y ago

Fascinating! I hadn’t heard of this before. The closest I’ve found in the same vein is a 1994 article by Edward Luttwak who predicted another wave of fascism in the western world driven by economic decline of the middle class: “It is only mildly amusing that nowadays the standard Republican/Tory after-dinner speech is a two-part affair, in which part one celebrates the virtues of unimpeded competition and dynamic structural change, while part two mourns the decline of the family and community ‘values’ that were eroded precisely by the forces commended in part one. Thus at the present time the core of Republican/Tory beliefs is a perfect non-sequitur. And what does the moderate Left have to offer? Only more redistribution, more public assistance, and particularist concern for particular groups that can claim victim status, from the sublime peak of elderly, handicapped, black lesbians down to the merely poor.” Link to article here. https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v16/n07/edward-luttwak/why-fascism-is-the-wave-of-the-future https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v16/n07/edward-luttwak/why-f...