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Let's use math and statistics, not anecdotes. If an increase in variance means that you get a +5 outlier 10x more often, then looking at a 10x longer timescale
by titzer 6y ago
Let's use math and statistics, not anecdotes. If an increase in variance means that you get a +5 outlier 10x more often, then looking at a 10x longer timescale will mean that you see the +5 outlier roughly as often, making it seem "less exceptional". The problem is that the exceptional thing is now happening 10x more often.
For example, Texas getting three "500 year" floods in 3 years. These were floods that were estimated to be a 0.2% probability in any given year. The fact that they are happening at much higher frequency is because the entire probability distribution has shifted (and expanded). Now if you improved your ability to peer into the past and found another "500 year flood" a few hundred years back, you'd be tempted to think everything is fine, when everything is decidedly not fine.
- koheripbal 6y agoYou cannot take prove a global phenomenon with local data, unless you compare global occurrences of local events. Taking only Texas as an "example" means you're cherry picking data. I'm sure we could find other parts of the world that had multiple rare events in every decade of the last century as well.
- titzer 6y agoIt was just an example. If you look at all the data together, the trend is clear. Both median temperatures and variance are increasing. Same for other extreme weather events like hurricanes, wildfires, and droughts.
- koheripbal 6y agoIs there a data source that says that temperature variances have increased? I have never seen meaningful evidence of this. > Same for other extreme weather events like hurricanes, wildfires, and droughts. Extreme weather events are extremely hard to define, and have such a low occurrence rate that you cannot extrapolate an increase in the timeframe we're discussing on a global level.