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I don't own any TSLA, but the bull case would be that they have a 1000-mile head start on their competition, and a unique culture that allows them to be far nim

I don't own any TSLA, but the bull case would be that they have a 1000-mile head start on their competition, and a unique culture that allows them to be far nimbler than the GMs of the world. In 20 years, when we drive only electric cars, TSLA will be the near-monopolist of that market, similar to Google, Amazon, or Facebook. I don't think I really believe that case, but that's the way the valuation is justified. It's not something that can be captured easily in a discounted cash flow model, because after a couple years you're basically just inventing numbers there. But if you knew for sure that TSLA would succeed in dominating the electric car market, you'd probably buy it at much higher prices than we see today.

remote_phone 6y ago
Tesla has already lost market share in Europe and North America. There are many smaller and cheaper alternatives and that’s what people are buying.
- Closi 6y ago
  I looked at this earlier in the year, and my personal view at the time was that actually other electric cars were a bit cheaper but you get a lot less car. The price difference just isn’t that big in relative terms (the starting prices are all relatively high), but the difference in what you get is huge. And I think that’s part of the allure of Tesla - can a 2010-era-supercar be built for $25k? What about less? I ended up getting a 2nd hand diesel BMW because I got the feeling that the market would move a lot in the next 5 years.
itsoktocry 6y ago
>they have a 1000-mile head start on their competition This is just more abstract phrasing. They make good, albeit expensive, cars that their fan-base seems happy with. They lead in a few things(tech, batteries) and are behind in others (maybe self-driving, definitely quality). Where is the 1000-mile lead?
- howlgarnish 6y ago
  Many people would have said the same about Apple vs Nokia when the first iPhone came out.
  - itsoktocry 6y ago
    >Many people would have said the same about Apple vs Nokia when the first iPhone came out. So Tesla is Nokia in this analogy? I agree, their 1000-mile lead can disappear.
wasdfff 6y ago
The 1000 mile lead ended the day they sold their first car and revealed any and all novel things about their tech to the world.
- peteradio 6y ago
  Yes! You can purchase the talent that produced the success at the very worst case. In the best case you can reverse engineer with much less talent.

remote_phone 6y ago

Tesla has already lost market share in Europe and North America. There are many smaller and cheaper alternatives and that’s what people are buying.

Closi 6y ago
I looked at this earlier in the year, and my personal view at the time was that actually other electric cars were a bit cheaper but you get a lot less car. The price difference just isn’t that big in relative terms (the starting prices are all relatively high), but the difference in what you get is huge. And I think that’s part of the allure of Tesla - can a 2010-era-supercar be built for $25k? What about less? I ended up getting a 2nd hand diesel BMW because I got the feeling that the market would move a lot in the next 5 years.

itsoktocry 6y ago

>they have a 1000-mile head start on their competition This is just more abstract phrasing. They make good, albeit expensive, cars that their fan-base seems happy with. They lead in a few things(tech, batteries) and are behind in others (maybe self-driving, definitely quality). Where is the 1000-mile lead?

howlgarnish 6y ago
Many people would have said the same about Apple vs Nokia when the first iPhone came out.
- itsoktocry 6y ago
  >Many people would have said the same about Apple vs Nokia when the first iPhone came out. So Tesla is Nokia in this analogy? I agree, their 1000-mile lead can disappear.

wasdfff 6y ago

The 1000 mile lead ended the day they sold their first car and revealed any and all novel things about their tech to the world.

peteradio 6y ago
Yes! You can purchase the talent that produced the success at the very worst case. In the best case you can reverse engineer with much less talent.