3 ms·

Technically he would have counted deaths, if I recall correctly. I agree w your idea though.

leereeves 6y ago
I think 2020 might also qualify on that count. Massive 1-Year Rise In Homicide Rates...in 2020 > New Orleans-based data consultant Jeff Asher studied crime rates in more than 50 cities and says the crime spikes aren't just happening in big cities. With the numbers of homicides spiking in many places, Asher expects the final statistics for 2020 to tell a startlingly grim story. > "We're going to see, historically, the largest one-year rise in murder that we've ever seen," he says. https://www.npr.org/2021/01/06/953254623/massive-1-year-rise-in-homicide-rates-collided-with-the-pandemic-in-2020 https://www.npr.org/2021/01/06/953254623/massive-1-year-rise...
- jeffbee 6y ago
  Is that really unprecedented? In 2016 Chicago had 60% more homicides than in 2015. Short-term spikes in statistics with small denominators can be expected. In 2015 Baltimore had 63% more homicides than in 2014.
  - leereeves 6y ago
    Sure, but the increase in the murder rate in 2020 wasn't a spike in a single city, it was a spike nationwide.
    - jeffbee 6y ago
      Right, it just doesn't seem that dramatic in context. They are saying a 13% year-over-year bump in the homicide rate is the greatest ever recorded, but there was an 11% bump from 2014-2015 and 10% from 2015 to 2016, according to the FBI UCR. So 13% is the highest but is it really such a shocking figure?
      - leereeves 6y ago
        AIUI, it's not saying that the increase in 2020 was only 13%, merely that 13% would be the largest increase in 50 years. We'll have to wait and see what the final figure is, but the midyear figure in the article is much higher: > Murder up 36.7% in 57 agencies with data through at least September (though most have data through November). (Note: I have no idea if Jeff Asher is a credible source, but NPR seems to think so.)

I think 2020 might also qualify on that count. Massive 1-Year Rise In Homicide Rates...in 2020 > New Orleans-based data consultant Jeff Asher studied crime rates in more than 50 cities and says the crime spikes aren't just happening in big cities. With the numbers of homicides spiking in many places, Asher expects the final statistics for 2020 to tell a startlingly grim story. > "We're going to see, historically, the largest one-year rise in murder that we've ever seen," he says. https://www.npr.org/2021/01/06/953254623/massive-1-year-rise-in-homicide-rates-collided-with-the-pandemic-in-2020 https://www.npr.org/2021/01/06/953254623/massive-1-year-rise...

jeffbee 6y ago
Is that really unprecedented? In 2016 Chicago had 60% more homicides than in 2015. Short-term spikes in statistics with small denominators can be expected. In 2015 Baltimore had 63% more homicides than in 2014.
- leereeves 6y ago
  Sure, but the increase in the murder rate in 2020 wasn't a spike in a single city, it was a spike nationwide.
  - jeffbee 6y ago
    Right, it just doesn't seem that dramatic in context. They are saying a 13% year-over-year bump in the homicide rate is the greatest ever recorded, but there was an 11% bump from 2014-2015 and 10% from 2015 to 2016, according to the FBI UCR. So 13% is the highest but is it really such a shocking figure?
    - leereeves 6y ago
      AIUI, it's not saying that the increase in 2020 was only 13%, merely that 13% would be the largest increase in 50 years. We'll have to wait and see what the final figure is, but the midyear figure in the article is much higher: > Murder up 36.7% in 57 agencies with data through at least September (though most have data through November). (Note: I have no idea if Jeff Asher is a credible source, but NPR seems to think so.)