4 ms·

What is a “violent upheaval”? Without a specific definition, such as “civil war resulting in 620,000 deaths”, they’re fairly easy to predict.

insert_coin 6y ago
Something other than a natural phenomena or war with an outside entity that makes you declare martial law in a considerable part of the country.
leereeves 6y ago
I think what happened in 2020 qualifies. While tame compared to the Civil War, it was comparable to the upheaval that happened about 50 years ago, and certainly not easy to predict. > between 15 million and 26 million people participated at some point in the demonstrations > arson, vandalism and looting caused about $1–2 billion in insured damage between May 26 and June 8, > By early June, at least 200 American cities had imposed curfews, while more than 30 states and Washington, D.C, had activated over 62,000 National Guard personnel in response to unrest. > By the end of June, at least 14,000 people had been arrested at protests https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_United_States_racial_unrest https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_United_State...
- flybrand 6y ago
  Technically he would have counted deaths, if I recall correctly. I agree w your idea though.
  - leereeves 6y ago
    I think 2020 might also qualify on that count. Massive 1-Year Rise In Homicide Rates...in 2020 > New Orleans-based data consultant Jeff Asher studied crime rates in more than 50 cities and says the crime spikes aren't just happening in big cities. With the numbers of homicides spiking in many places, Asher expects the final statistics for 2020 to tell a startlingly grim story. > "We're going to see, historically, the largest one-year rise in murder that we've ever seen," he says. https://www.npr.org/2021/01/06/953254623/massive-1-year-rise-in-homicide-rates-collided-with-the-pandemic-in-2020 https://www.npr.org/2021/01/06/953254623/massive-1-year-rise...
    - jeffbee 6y ago
      Is that really unprecedented? In 2016 Chicago had 60% more homicides than in 2015. Short-term spikes in statistics with small denominators can be expected. In 2015 Baltimore had 63% more homicides than in 2014.
      - leereeves 6y ago
        Sure, but the increase in the murder rate in 2020 wasn't a spike in a single city, it was a spike nationwide.
        jeffbee 6y ago
        Right, it just doesn't seem that dramatic in context. They are saying a 13% year-over-year bump in the homicide rate is the greatest ever recorded, but there was an 11% bump from 2014-2015 and 10% from 2015 to 2016, according to the FBI UCR. So 13% is the highest but is it really such a shocking figure?
        leereeves 6y ago
        AIUI, it's not saying that the increase in 2020 was only 13%, merely that 13% would be the largest increase in 50 years. We'll have to wait and see what the final figure is, but the midyear figure in the article is much higher: > Murder up 36.7% in 57 agencies with data through at least September (though most have data through November). (Note: I have no idea if Jeff Asher is a credible source, but NPR seems to think so.)
- Spinnaker_ 6y ago
  To put that in perspective, the 1992 Los Angeles riots had similar damage and arrest numbers, and were significantly more violent (63 killed). And that was a single city.
JPLeRouzic 6y ago
In describing how he built his database Turchin says [0] it is about lethal events: "Instability events vary in scale from intense and pro- longed civil wars claiming thousands (and sometimes even millions) of human lives to a one-day urban riot in which several people are killed, or even a violent demonstration in which no lives are lost. In constructing the database I chose to include only lethal events." [0] https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022343312442078 https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022343312442078
- wombatmobile 6y ago
  Does the model predict or account for the Oklahoma Federal building bombing (1996, 168 people killed)?
  - JPLeRouzic 6y ago
    It seems to be taken in account. From the article: "Thus, although the most common fatality rate per event was 1 (48% of cases), in rare cases the ‘butcher bill’ could run into hundreds (less than 1% of events had a fatality rate of 100 or more). As a result, the rare but bloody events have a disproportionate effect on the trajectory. A good example of this effect is the latest ‘peak’ in the trajectory (during the 1990s) – it is entirely due to 168 deaths associated with a single event, the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing."
flybrand 6y ago
He goes into it in some detail in the book - the math goes beyond my ability to summarize. He looks at conflicts / murders / etc per year.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]

insert_coin 6y ago

Something other than a natural phenomena or war with an outside entity that makes you declare martial law in a considerable part of the country.

leereeves 6y ago

I think what happened in 2020 qualifies. While tame compared to the Civil War, it was comparable to the upheaval that happened about 50 years ago, and certainly not easy to predict. > between 15 million and 26 million people participated at some point in the demonstrations > arson, vandalism and looting caused about $1–2 billion in insured damage between May 26 and June 8, > By early June, at least 200 American cities had imposed curfews, while more than 30 states and Washington, D.C, had activated over 62,000 National Guard personnel in response to unrest. > By the end of June, at least 14,000 people had been arrested at protests https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_United_States_racial_unrest https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_United_State...

flybrand 6y ago
Technically he would have counted deaths, if I recall correctly. I agree w your idea though.
- leereeves 6y ago
  I think 2020 might also qualify on that count. Massive 1-Year Rise In Homicide Rates...in 2020 > New Orleans-based data consultant Jeff Asher studied crime rates in more than 50 cities and says the crime spikes aren't just happening in big cities. With the numbers of homicides spiking in many places, Asher expects the final statistics for 2020 to tell a startlingly grim story. > "We're going to see, historically, the largest one-year rise in murder that we've ever seen," he says. https://www.npr.org/2021/01/06/953254623/massive-1-year-rise-in-homicide-rates-collided-with-the-pandemic-in-2020 https://www.npr.org/2021/01/06/953254623/massive-1-year-rise...
  - jeffbee 6y ago
    Is that really unprecedented? In 2016 Chicago had 60% more homicides than in 2015. Short-term spikes in statistics with small denominators can be expected. In 2015 Baltimore had 63% more homicides than in 2014.
    - leereeves 6y ago
      Sure, but the increase in the murder rate in 2020 wasn't a spike in a single city, it was a spike nationwide.
      - jeffbee 6y ago
        Right, it just doesn't seem that dramatic in context. They are saying a 13% year-over-year bump in the homicide rate is the greatest ever recorded, but there was an 11% bump from 2014-2015 and 10% from 2015 to 2016, according to the FBI UCR. So 13% is the highest but is it really such a shocking figure?
        leereeves 6y ago
        AIUI, it's not saying that the increase in 2020 was only 13%, merely that 13% would be the largest increase in 50 years. We'll have to wait and see what the final figure is, but the midyear figure in the article is much higher: > Murder up 36.7% in 57 agencies with data through at least September (though most have data through November). (Note: I have no idea if Jeff Asher is a credible source, but NPR seems to think so.)
Spinnaker_ 6y ago
To put that in perspective, the 1992 Los Angeles riots had similar damage and arrest numbers, and were significantly more violent (63 killed). And that was a single city.

JPLeRouzic 6y ago

In describing how he built his database Turchin says [0] it is about lethal events: "Instability events vary in scale from intense and pro- longed civil wars claiming thousands (and sometimes even millions) of human lives to a one-day urban riot in which several people are killed, or even a violent demonstration in which no lives are lost. In constructing the database I chose to include only lethal events." [0] https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022343312442078 https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022343312442078

wombatmobile 6y ago
Does the model predict or account for the Oklahoma Federal building bombing (1996, 168 people killed)?
- JPLeRouzic 6y ago
  It seems to be taken in account. From the article: "Thus, although the most common fatality rate per event was 1 (48% of cases), in rare cases the ‘butcher bill’ could run into hundreds (less than 1% of events had a fatality rate of 100 or more). As a result, the rare but bloody events have a disproportionate effect on the trajectory. A good example of this effect is the latest ‘peak’ in the trajectory (during the 1990s) – it is entirely due to 168 deaths associated with a single event, the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing."

flybrand 6y ago

He goes into it in some detail in the book - the math goes beyond my ability to summarize. He looks at conflicts / murders / etc per year.

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]