6 ms·

Trump administration goes ahead with rule to scrap visa lottery

56 points by rawgabbit 6y ago

chindtooo 6y ago
Immigration activist here. Nothing in the H1B world is as it appears from outside. There are far deeper problems. Trump admin in particular (in my personal opinion) is driven by a great hatred for Indian and Chinese h1b holders and has been a bit like bull in china shop targeting both groups with various ridiculous and often completely illegal methods. Lottery assignment is based on first come first serve as per the law. I expect this change to be challenged and eventually thrown out by courts. Of course administration does have a case here as they can argue first come first serve is intended only when h1b cap is not met and once it is met, the agency must get deference to use whatever algorithm they chose to use. This sort by salary would sound like a good reform to many. It is not. The so called body shops will run circles around the incompetent people at USCIS who ignore all laws of economics and come up with heavy handed regulations which only further help the scammers and hurt the honest. Nothing prevents My Bodyshop Inc. from filing a petition with unreasonably high salary. Once the h1b petition is approved the employee then quickly changes jobs to My Brother's Bodyshop Inc. this time with a reasonable salary. There is nothing USCIS can do here but to approve the petition if the paperwork is in order. Trump administration out of sheer caprice decided to deny job change petitions thus putting thousands and perfectly genuine job changers into jeopardy (not to mention the law does not given them any such authority). If the Evil Bodyshop Inc wants to take bigger risks they do the following. They offer a pretty big salary to the employee to even beat Google and Facebook. But when the employee joins the employee is required to pay back the additional portion of the salary to some one else like a fake university running fake educational courses. The Extra Evil Bodyshop Inc promises they will pay a fat salary but simply does not pay that amount. Since most H1B holders from India will never get their greencards they do not have to worry about the future scrutiny during greencard process. They basically happy to continue on the low salary. After they have made decent money they might even catch a flight back to India. They have made their money. There is only one sensible H1B regulation. Permanently end the program. Let American companies move the job to Canada to India or some other place which is more willing to take in immigrants. That we "these people are taking our jobs" argument will vanish from public discourse. If there are no jobs in the country in first place, there are no jobs to steal. Just offer a EAD to greencard to all H1B holder within 2-3 years so they become free agents and do not have to be bound to their employer. This vastly reduces the paperwork for everyone and allows markets to promote higher wages.
Danieru 6y ago
This is a good change which prevents body shops from privatizing the financial surplus of the visa. Right now body shops can flood the lottery and underpay their employees relative to direct hire h1b.
- leereeves 6y ago
  I agree. The H-1B lottery favors exploiting foreign workers for relatively low paying tech jobs with poor working conditions. I hope this article is wrong about Biden reversing this.
  - Barrin92 6y ago
    There's no evidence that this is true. H-1B workers are generally paid above market wages compared to workers of similar skill level[1]. This argument is often brought up when people compare median wages, but they seem to forget that half of the American workforce isn't paid the median wage. [1]https://www.cato.org/blog/100-h-1b-employers-offer-average-market-wages-78-offer-more https://www.cato.org/blog/100-h-1b-employers-offer-average-m...
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
    - true_religion 6y ago
      H1-B visas were intended to be used to exceptional workers in cases where there was genuine immediate need for them. Currently they are just being used for matters of convenience. That’s people true gripe with them.
  - niq999 6y ago
    For the record, I make $300/month as a hired software engineer here in Russia. I would prefer slightly better conditions, than no such opportunity at all.
    - cpursley 6y ago
Hydraulix989 6y ago
What does this mean for people on H1-B visas right now?
- chindtooo 6y ago
  Nothing.
- kc10 6y ago
  People who are already on H1B do not fall into this quota. Their visas can be extended up to 3+3 years or their employer should apply for a green card so they can stay beyond the 6 year limit.
carlsborg 6y ago
The UK did this really well with the erstwhile Tier1 visa program: no work restrictions (including starting your own company), but show us annual earnings of more than, for example 2x of the general populations average salary when you apply to renew every 2 years.
- jzwinck 6y ago
  Doesn't that guarantee that foreigners will continue to be paid more than locals?
  - chindtooo 6y ago
    That is the whole point. No one is going to pay foreigners 2x if the local is available at 1x. Markets work better than any paperwork.
  - setr 6y ago
    Is that a problem? Isn’t the usual complaint that foreigners are happy to accept less pay, and h1bs are used to fuel that? You want foreigners to cost more, to incentivize usage of the local population first — and the whole point of the h1b was supposed to be to “improve the average”, by only hiring for those skills/expertise that can be met by local population.
    - orange_tee 6y ago
      It could cause other problems for other people, like gentrification of entire cities.
      - konjin 6y ago
        This is literally an episode of south park: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Here_Comes_the_Neighborhood https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Here_Comes_the_Neighborhood
  - smdz 6y ago
    Why would a business pay 2x to someone when they can get the same output from a local at 1x pay? Unless they(business) are doing some financial trickery
pg_bot 6y ago
The US should steal Australia's point based system of immigration. Put a value on the attributes we are looking for and if you reach that number of points you can immigrate. It is far too difficult to become a naturalized US citizen.
- konjin 6y ago
  It is a lot easier to become a US citizen than an Australian one.
  - zed88 6y ago
    Try New Zealand. Even harder.
    - checker659 6y ago
      Try Canada, the paperwork required is just something.
  - yen223 6y ago
    Statements like this requires a huge asterisk, in that it depends very heavily on where you are from and what's your background in general. This certainly isn't true for someone like me.
simonebrunozzi 6y ago
> ...a regulation to replace the lottery-based allocation system for the controversial H-1B visa with a wage-based process So, it seems that the deal is to switch from a "random" assignment, to one based on proposed wage, favoring - I presume - higher wages. This might actually be an interesting idea. Let me explain. I'm not up to date, but a few years ago the issue with H1-B was that the big Indian consulting firms (Wipro, Tata (TCS), HCL, Infosys, Tech Mahindra) [0] were used to submit a VERY large amount of H1-B applications, knowing that about 1/3rd to 1/4th of these would "win" the lottery and be accepted. As a result, most of the H1-B granted are theirs (top 3 in this list [1]). At least, if it's wage-based instead of random, they would be forced to review the wages offered to Indians moving to the US to work for them. I am not sure if there are other implications (did I miss something important in my little analysis?), but I think it would be something worth exploring more. [0]: https://www.deccanherald.com/business/economy-business/indias-top-5-it-firms-stare-at-historic-revenue-mark-766973.html https://www.deccanherald.com/business/economy-business/india... [1]: https://www.myvisajobs.com/Reports/2020-H1B-Visa-Sponsor.aspx https://www.myvisajobs.com/Reports/2020-H1B-Visa-Sponsor.asp...
christiansakai 6y ago
I personally know someone who managed to exploit H1B to work a relatively low skilled job who can be done by Americans instead. The person even managed to get a permanent residence an bringing his family with him. It was a motel manager job.

56 points by rawgabbit 6y ago

Immigration activist here. Nothing in the H1B world is as it appears from outside. There are far deeper problems. Trump admin in particular (in my personal opinion) is driven by a great hatred for Indian and Chinese h1b holders and has been a bit like bull in china shop targeting both groups with various ridiculous and often completely illegal methods. Lottery assignment is based on first come first serve as per the law. I expect this change to be challenged and eventually thrown out by courts. Of course administration does have a case here as they can argue first come first serve is intended only when h1b cap is not met and once it is met, the agency must get deference to use whatever algorithm they chose to use. This sort by salary would sound like a good reform to many. It is not. The so called body shops will run circles around the incompetent people at USCIS who ignore all laws of economics and come up with heavy handed regulations which only further help the scammers and hurt the honest. Nothing prevents My Bodyshop Inc. from filing a petition with unreasonably high salary. Once the h1b petition is approved the employee then quickly changes jobs to My Brother's Bodyshop Inc. this time with a reasonable salary. There is nothing USCIS can do here but to approve the petition if the paperwork is in order. Trump administration out of sheer caprice decided to deny job change petitions thus putting thousands and perfectly genuine job changers into jeopardy (not to mention the law does not given them any such authority). If the Evil Bodyshop Inc wants to take bigger risks they do the following. They offer a pretty big salary to the employee to even beat Google and Facebook. But when the employee joins the employee is required to pay back the additional portion of the salary to some one else like a fake university running fake educational courses. The Extra Evil Bodyshop Inc promises they will pay a fat salary but simply does not pay that amount. Since most H1B holders from India will never get their greencards they do not have to worry about the future scrutiny during greencard process. They basically happy to continue on the low salary. After they have made decent money they might even catch a flight back to India. They have made their money. There is only one sensible H1B regulation. Permanently end the program. Let American companies move the job to Canada to India or some other place which is more willing to take in immigrants. That we "these people are taking our jobs" argument will vanish from public discourse. If there are no jobs in the country in first place, there are no jobs to steal. Just offer a EAD to greencard to all H1B holder within 2-3 years so they become free agents and do not have to be bound to their employer. This vastly reduces the paperwork for everyone and allows markets to promote higher wages.

Danieru 6y ago

This is a good change which prevents body shops from privatizing the financial surplus of the visa. Right now body shops can flood the lottery and underpay their employees relative to direct hire h1b.

leereeves 6y ago
I agree. The H-1B lottery favors exploiting foreign workers for relatively low paying tech jobs with poor working conditions. I hope this article is wrong about Biden reversing this.
- Barrin92 6y ago
  There's no evidence that this is true. H-1B workers are generally paid above market wages compared to workers of similar skill level[1]. This argument is often brought up when people compare median wages, but they seem to forget that half of the American workforce isn't paid the median wage. [1]https://www.cato.org/blog/100-h-1b-employers-offer-average-market-wages-78-offer-more https://www.cato.org/blog/100-h-1b-employers-offer-average-m...
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - true_religion 6y ago
    H1-B visas were intended to be used to exceptional workers in cases where there was genuine immediate need for them. Currently they are just being used for matters of convenience. That’s people true gripe with them.
- niq999 6y ago
  For the record, I make $300/month as a hired software engineer here in Russia. I would prefer slightly better conditions, than no such opportunity at all.
  - cpursley 6y ago

Hydraulix989 6y ago

What does this mean for people on H1-B visas right now?

chindtooo 6y ago
Nothing.
kc10 6y ago
People who are already on H1B do not fall into this quota. Their visas can be extended up to 3+3 years or their employer should apply for a green card so they can stay beyond the 6 year limit.

carlsborg 6y ago

The UK did this really well with the erstwhile Tier1 visa program: no work restrictions (including starting your own company), but show us annual earnings of more than, for example 2x of the general populations average salary when you apply to renew every 2 years.

jzwinck 6y ago
Doesn't that guarantee that foreigners will continue to be paid more than locals?
- chindtooo 6y ago
  That is the whole point. No one is going to pay foreigners 2x if the local is available at 1x. Markets work better than any paperwork.
- setr 6y ago
  Is that a problem? Isn’t the usual complaint that foreigners are happy to accept less pay, and h1bs are used to fuel that? You want foreigners to cost more, to incentivize usage of the local population first — and the whole point of the h1b was supposed to be to “improve the average”, by only hiring for those skills/expertise that can be met by local population.
  - orange_tee 6y ago
    It could cause other problems for other people, like gentrification of entire cities.
    - konjin 6y ago
      This is literally an episode of south park: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Here_Comes_the_Neighborhood https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Here_Comes_the_Neighborhood
- smdz 6y ago
  Why would a business pay 2x to someone when they can get the same output from a local at 1x pay? Unless they(business) are doing some financial trickery

pg_bot 6y ago

The US should steal Australia's point based system of immigration. Put a value on the attributes we are looking for and if you reach that number of points you can immigrate. It is far too difficult to become a naturalized US citizen.

konjin 6y ago
It is a lot easier to become a US citizen than an Australian one.
- zed88 6y ago
  Try New Zealand. Even harder.
  - checker659 6y ago
    Try Canada, the paperwork required is just something.
- yen223 6y ago
  Statements like this requires a huge asterisk, in that it depends very heavily on where you are from and what's your background in general. This certainly isn't true for someone like me.

simonebrunozzi 6y ago

> ...a regulation to replace the lottery-based allocation system for the controversial H-1B visa with a wage-based process So, it seems that the deal is to switch from a "random" assignment, to one based on proposed wage, favoring - I presume - higher wages. This might actually be an interesting idea. Let me explain. I'm not up to date, but a few years ago the issue with H1-B was that the big Indian consulting firms (Wipro, Tata (TCS), HCL, Infosys, Tech Mahindra) [0] were used to submit a VERY large amount of H1-B applications, knowing that about 1/3rd to 1/4th of these would "win" the lottery and be accepted. As a result, most of the H1-B granted are theirs (top 3 in this list [1]). At least, if it's wage-based instead of random, they would be forced to review the wages offered to Indians moving to the US to work for them. I am not sure if there are other implications (did I miss something important in my little analysis?), but I think it would be something worth exploring more. [0]: https://www.deccanherald.com/business/economy-business/indias-top-5-it-firms-stare-at-historic-revenue-mark-766973.html https://www.deccanherald.com/business/economy-business/india... [1]: https://www.myvisajobs.com/Reports/2020-H1B-Visa-Sponsor.aspx https://www.myvisajobs.com/Reports/2020-H1B-Visa-Sponsor.asp...

christiansakai 6y ago

I personally know someone who managed to exploit H1B to work a relatively low skilled job who can be done by Americans instead. The person even managed to get a permanent residence an bringing his family with him. It was a motel manager job.