To be clear - you're right, I did the run-through the worst-case scenario, but I did it for someone else who wasn't seeing it. It's not that my own view rests o

To be clear - you're right, I did the run-through the worst-case scenario, but I did it for someone else who wasn't seeing it. It's not that my own view rests on it. I won't share my email or other contact here since I tend to share somewhat personal stories on HN so I'd rather it not totally tie to who I am (though really who cares) so let me lay out the simplest view of my short case on BTC. I believe that valuation matters. I "believe" in the price of an oil futures contract for example because I know it represents the best effort of invested parties to arrive at what that price ought to be (through a market mechanism.) So people say things like "I am bullish on oil as long as it's under $X" - and once it goes above $X (plus some margin perhaps) even the bulls sell. This is good because it's sane behavior in the market. With Bitcoin, I don't see anyone say "I am bullish until it crosses $X" - the culture of the marketplace is that it's going up no matter the price. In market terms it creates unchecked upward pressure on the price, which in my mind equates to bubble conditions. And then I have seen enough bubbles burst (in my lifetime and through study of history) to know that unchecked upward pressure will stop just after it reaches its max. And since people aren't anchoring to an analytic $X price, there's likewise no floor on the way down. I spelled out the mechanics of this in what you call Armageddon analysis. To boil this down very simply: 1. Whenever people are buying without an attempt to valuate, they inflate a bubble. 2. Bubbles always burst. I have other, more technical and psychological elements to the short case, but this is the simplest piece. People bidding something up without concern for valuation always spells trouble.