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Taiwan does have major benefits for the US today given the current power balance between the US in China. But in the future when the power balance continues shi
by magicsmoke 6y ago
Taiwan does have major benefits for the US today given the current power balance between the US in China. But in the future when the power balance continues shifting as it has the continued defense of Taiwan will be a major liability. I don't believe the US should unilaterally withdraw from Taiwan tomorrow, but I do believe that it should plan for a more stable and peaceful future where it does not have to defend a sphere of influence off the coast of a China even stronger than today, what path should be taken to reach that future balance without creating a second Pacific war, and if a war is necessary how to minimize casualties and damage.
As for the worry about appeasement, that policy failed with Nazi Germany because the geopolitical balance of Europe required that they annex the land and agricultural capacity needed to become a major power. Any strategist could foresee that Germany would not have stopped at Austria and Czechoslovakia while leaving the farmlands of Poland and Eastern Europe. Appeasement was also to buy time for Britain to rearm after a devastating WW1. I do not believe this to be the case for China because there are no valuable agricultural lands to annex around them, and because modern technology has changed the nature of power projection where the winner is not the one with the bigger army but the one with the smarter army. Annexing economically unproductive land with unfriendly inhabitants is a very dumb move, unless it's holy land for the nationalist rhetoric of reunifying the Chinese nation and rejecting foreign pressure.
Lastly, China's neighbors have every right to be worried. But how does spending for their defense benefit your typical American citizen who's more interested in sending their kids to college than sending them to die for the maintenance of an overseas empire?