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I used to believe it was only a matter of time until China is militarily able to take Taiwan. But it's not true: amphibious landings are notoriously difficult.

I used to believe it was only a matter of time until China is militarily able to take Taiwan. But it's not true: amphibious landings are notoriously difficult. Taiwan only has a few, easily defended beaches that can host an a landing. The rest of the coastline is jagged and rocky, and the Taiwan Strait hosts many typhoons and bad weather. For what it's worth, even the US would struggle to invade Taiwan militarily.

roenxi 6y ago
That just means they shouldn't try an amphibious landing first up. They could set up a blockade then use a bunch of missiles, artillery and drones to shell Taiwan until they surrender. If it is Taiwan v. China, Taiwan will lose. The only hope they have is support from someone with a strong enough navy that China can't blockade them.
yyyk 6y ago
The big problem is that Taiwan doesn't spend nearly enough on its military, soldiering is a low status job and morale isn't high. Simply put, the society has to become more militarized to survive. I also have doubts that the 'mass invasion via a few possible beaches after 3 weeks of obvious preparation which allow Taiwan ample time to mobilize its reserves' is the only relevant invasion scenario. At the very least, paratroopers can play a major role, and I can think of a few other ideas to spice it up. These can be defended against if Taiwan is seriously motivated - that's the big question mark.
dirtyid 6y ago
I respond below why invasion is not necessary, reunification through whatever means is preferable, but ultimately Chinese goals is for Taiwan not to be a strategic liability, and for that they can glass Taiwan into Yemen indefinitely without landing a single boot on the ground if US/Taiwan relation ever threatens Chinese security. US goal is to contain China, that's extremely difficult medium/long term without war, even if it means sacrificing Taiwan in the first place. This move is engineered to sacrifice Taiwan for an eventual confrontation that benefits US short/medium term force balance. Pompeo is fishing for war. Taiwan is the bait. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25707318 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25707318
- throw384742 6y ago
  Intermarriage between Mainland Chinese and Taiwanese is extremely high. Among my Taiwanese friends, almost a third are married to Mainlanders (and even more have dated). Even if this doesn't lead to reunification, at the very least it'll maintain the status quo.
  - dirtyid 6y ago
    Peaceful status quo is best, I find TW friends generally sensible about cross strait relations. PRC less so. But TW nationalism / independence is good election platform, and status quo is always elections away from being disrupted. Then there's also the 2049 deadline and PRC domestic politics. Xi wants premature reunion to cement his legacy, I doubt he'll be ruling at 105 years old, hopefully he comes to his senses. That said, this was long time coming. 92 consensus facade could only work for so long. It's hard to see what the next viable framework would be.

roenxi 6y ago

That just means they shouldn't try an amphibious landing first up. They could set up a blockade then use a bunch of missiles, artillery and drones to shell Taiwan until they surrender. If it is Taiwan v. China, Taiwan will lose. The only hope they have is support from someone with a strong enough navy that China can't blockade them.

yyyk 6y ago

The big problem is that Taiwan doesn't spend nearly enough on its military, soldiering is a low status job and morale isn't high. Simply put, the society has to become more militarized to survive. I also have doubts that the 'mass invasion via a few possible beaches after 3 weeks of obvious preparation which allow Taiwan ample time to mobilize its reserves' is the only relevant invasion scenario. At the very least, paratroopers can play a major role, and I can think of a few other ideas to spice it up. These can be defended against if Taiwan is seriously motivated - that's the big question mark.

dirtyid 6y ago

I respond below why invasion is not necessary, reunification through whatever means is preferable, but ultimately Chinese goals is for Taiwan not to be a strategic liability, and for that they can glass Taiwan into Yemen indefinitely without landing a single boot on the ground if US/Taiwan relation ever threatens Chinese security. US goal is to contain China, that's extremely difficult medium/long term without war, even if it means sacrificing Taiwan in the first place. This move is engineered to sacrifice Taiwan for an eventual confrontation that benefits US short/medium term force balance. Pompeo is fishing for war. Taiwan is the bait. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25707318 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25707318

throw384742 6y ago
Intermarriage between Mainland Chinese and Taiwanese is extremely high. Among my Taiwanese friends, almost a third are married to Mainlanders (and even more have dated). Even if this doesn't lead to reunification, at the very least it'll maintain the status quo.
- dirtyid 6y ago
  Peaceful status quo is best, I find TW friends generally sensible about cross strait relations. PRC less so. But TW nationalism / independence is good election platform, and status quo is always elections away from being disrupted. Then there's also the 2049 deadline and PRC domestic politics. Xi wants premature reunion to cement his legacy, I doubt he'll be ruling at 105 years old, hopefully he comes to his senses. That said, this was long time coming. 92 consensus facade could only work for so long. It's hard to see what the next viable framework would be.