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My first reply was flagged. My question, is it okay for user to say that they strategically support China more than Taiwan and would hope U.S policy eventually

My first reply was flagged. My question, is it okay for user to say that they strategically support China more than Taiwan and would hope U.S policy eventually follow suit?

someperson 6y ago
You can say and think what you want. But there's no situation where the United States stops supporting democratic Taiwan. The US supported Taiwan under-the-table since the 1970s which was well before democratization back when they were yet another brutal authoritarian ally of the United States (eg, Saudi Arabia etc). Now Taiwan is a vibrant democracy with the rule-of-law, free speech and world-leading industries the United States will stay allied to Taiwan. As they say: "In international relations, there are no permanent friends or permanent enemies, only permanent interests".
magicsmoke 6y ago
It's certainly not illegal or violates site guidelines if you can put forward a reasonably argued position. I personally think a future where China annexes Taiwan would bring about a more stable and peaceful geopolitical relationship between China and the US because of three reasons. 1. The US is not threatened by China. The Pacific prevents any invasion of the America's, and China cannot blockade the US given its two coastlines and world class navy. 2. China is threatened by the US. It's ringed by US military bases and depends on oil shipping through the Indian Ocean. 3. China has no ideology of global expansion and conversion like the USSR, nor does it need more land and resources like the much smaller Nazi Germany or Imperial Japan. Taiwan (and frankly all of China's other disputes) are limited goals of a nationalist ideology from the 1940s and losing Taiwan won't trigger a dominoe effect of China annexing the rest of the world and threatening America or Europe. In a future where Taiwan was annexed and the US has pulled it's bases back to Guam or Hawaii, I can't see any future flash points between the two nations. Rather, a much healthier and respectful relationship between two powerhouses that mind their own affairs instead of sticking weapons and provocations in each other's faces. However, this line of reasoning requires accepting that the US should not act as a global defender of democracy worldwide regardless of cost or strategy, and that encouraging a democracy to spring up in the path of a unsettled conflict wasn't the wisest of choices. Still, minority positions tend to be unpopular unless reality proves them to be true.
- someperson 6y ago
  An annexation of Taiwan would have big implications for the security of US and allies like South Korea, Japan, Thailand, (formerly) the Philippines. Taiwan is an unsinkable aircraft carrier that has immense strategic value. Vietnam and other countries (including Russia) are worried about China's territorial expansionism and annexing the South China Sea. Public policy experts are worried about the failed policy of "appeasement" that was used in WW2. Basically territorial ambitions increase when concessions happen. Taiwan is continues to be free to decide to unify with China by the ballet box though. If they have a free and fair election and decide to join China, the world will go along with it.
  - fuoqi 6y ago
    Russia does not care much about Spratly Islands and it will gladly trade recognition of China's sovereignty over them for recognition of Crimea/South Osetia/Abkhazia or even for smaller geopolitical favors. As for Taiwan, Russia's official stance has always been that it's part of the mainland China, so I doubt it will do anything beside raising pointless "concerns" in the event of its military occupation. If anything, from realpolitik point of view it will be beneficial for Russia, since a military conflict over Taiwan would significantly undermine either US', or China's geopolitical positions, or even both of them.
    - someperson 6y ago
      I was talking about the Russian sparsely populated far-East. The city of Vladivostok is in Qing China territory and was acquired in the Treaty of Aigun (which is considered an "unequal treaty"). In the area the Russian population is dwindling and the Chinese population is increasing, so those watching the region are expecting China to 'salami slice' its way to control over that massive amount of land. It would also bolster China's claim of being a 'near-Arctic state', so it's almost a foregone conclusion that they'll be moving to do this.
  - magicsmoke 6y ago
    Taiwan does have major benefits for the US today given the current power balance between the US in China. But in the future when the power balance continues shifting as it has the continued defense of Taiwan will be a major liability. I don't believe the US should unilaterally withdraw from Taiwan tomorrow, but I do believe that it should plan for a more stable and peaceful future where it does not have to defend a sphere of influence off the coast of a China even stronger than today, what path should be taken to reach that future balance without creating a second Pacific war, and if a war is necessary how to minimize casualties and damage. As for the worry about appeasement, that policy failed with Nazi Germany because the geopolitical balance of Europe required that they annex the land and agricultural capacity needed to become a major power. Any strategist could foresee that Germany would not have stopped at Austria and Czechoslovakia while leaving the farmlands of Poland and Eastern Europe. Appeasement was also to buy time for Britain to rearm after a devastating WW1. I do not believe this to be the case for China because there are no valuable agricultural lands to annex around them, and because modern technology has changed the nature of power projection where the winner is not the one with the bigger army but the one with the smarter army. Annexing economically unproductive land with unfriendly inhabitants is a very dumb move, unless it's holy land for the nationalist rhetoric of reunifying the Chinese nation and rejecting foreign pressure. Lastly, China's neighbors have every right to be worried. But how does spending for their defense benefit your typical American citizen who's more interested in sending their kids to college than sending them to die for the maintenance of an overseas empire?

My first reply was flagged. My question, is it okay for user to say that they strategically support China more than Taiwan and would hope U.S policy eventually follow suit?

someperson 6y ago

You can say and think what you want. But there's no situation where the United States stops supporting democratic Taiwan. The US supported Taiwan under-the-table since the 1970s which was well before democratization back when they were yet another brutal authoritarian ally of the United States (eg, Saudi Arabia etc). Now Taiwan is a vibrant democracy with the rule-of-law, free speech and world-leading industries the United States will stay allied to Taiwan. As they say: "In international relations, there are no permanent friends or permanent enemies, only permanent interests".

magicsmoke 6y ago

It's certainly not illegal or violates site guidelines if you can put forward a reasonably argued position. I personally think a future where China annexes Taiwan would bring about a more stable and peaceful geopolitical relationship between China and the US because of three reasons. 1. The US is not threatened by China. The Pacific prevents any invasion of the America's, and China cannot blockade the US given its two coastlines and world class navy. 2. China is threatened by the US. It's ringed by US military bases and depends on oil shipping through the Indian Ocean. 3. China has no ideology of global expansion and conversion like the USSR, nor does it need more land and resources like the much smaller Nazi Germany or Imperial Japan. Taiwan (and frankly all of China's other disputes) are limited goals of a nationalist ideology from the 1940s and losing Taiwan won't trigger a dominoe effect of China annexing the rest of the world and threatening America or Europe. In a future where Taiwan was annexed and the US has pulled it's bases back to Guam or Hawaii, I can't see any future flash points between the two nations. Rather, a much healthier and respectful relationship between two powerhouses that mind their own affairs instead of sticking weapons and provocations in each other's faces. However, this line of reasoning requires accepting that the US should not act as a global defender of democracy worldwide regardless of cost or strategy, and that encouraging a democracy to spring up in the path of a unsettled conflict wasn't the wisest of choices. Still, minority positions tend to be unpopular unless reality proves them to be true.

someperson 6y ago
An annexation of Taiwan would have big implications for the security of US and allies like South Korea, Japan, Thailand, (formerly) the Philippines. Taiwan is an unsinkable aircraft carrier that has immense strategic value. Vietnam and other countries (including Russia) are worried about China's territorial expansionism and annexing the South China Sea. Public policy experts are worried about the failed policy of "appeasement" that was used in WW2. Basically territorial ambitions increase when concessions happen. Taiwan is continues to be free to decide to unify with China by the ballet box though. If they have a free and fair election and decide to join China, the world will go along with it.
- fuoqi 6y ago
  Russia does not care much about Spratly Islands and it will gladly trade recognition of China's sovereignty over them for recognition of Crimea/South Osetia/Abkhazia or even for smaller geopolitical favors. As for Taiwan, Russia's official stance has always been that it's part of the mainland China, so I doubt it will do anything beside raising pointless "concerns" in the event of its military occupation. If anything, from realpolitik point of view it will be beneficial for Russia, since a military conflict over Taiwan would significantly undermine either US', or China's geopolitical positions, or even both of them.
  - someperson 6y ago
    I was talking about the Russian sparsely populated far-East. The city of Vladivostok is in Qing China territory and was acquired in the Treaty of Aigun (which is considered an "unequal treaty"). In the area the Russian population is dwindling and the Chinese population is increasing, so those watching the region are expecting China to 'salami slice' its way to control over that massive amount of land. It would also bolster China's claim of being a 'near-Arctic state', so it's almost a foregone conclusion that they'll be moving to do this.
- magicsmoke 6y ago
  Taiwan does have major benefits for the US today given the current power balance between the US in China. But in the future when the power balance continues shifting as it has the continued defense of Taiwan will be a major liability. I don't believe the US should unilaterally withdraw from Taiwan tomorrow, but I do believe that it should plan for a more stable and peaceful future where it does not have to defend a sphere of influence off the coast of a China even stronger than today, what path should be taken to reach that future balance without creating a second Pacific war, and if a war is necessary how to minimize casualties and damage. As for the worry about appeasement, that policy failed with Nazi Germany because the geopolitical balance of Europe required that they annex the land and agricultural capacity needed to become a major power. Any strategist could foresee that Germany would not have stopped at Austria and Czechoslovakia while leaving the farmlands of Poland and Eastern Europe. Appeasement was also to buy time for Britain to rearm after a devastating WW1. I do not believe this to be the case for China because there are no valuable agricultural lands to annex around them, and because modern technology has changed the nature of power projection where the winner is not the one with the bigger army but the one with the smarter army. Annexing economically unproductive land with unfriendly inhabitants is a very dumb move, unless it's holy land for the nationalist rhetoric of reunifying the Chinese nation and rejecting foreign pressure. Lastly, China's neighbors have every right to be worried. But how does spending for their defense benefit your typical American citizen who's more interested in sending their kids to college than sending them to die for the maintenance of an overseas empire?