> Just because it would have turned out good in hindsight doesn't mean it wasn't a stupid idea. The evidence confirms the the accuracy of my predictions. It’s

> Just because it would have turned out good in hindsight doesn't mean it wasn't a stupid idea. The evidence confirms the the accuracy of my predictions. It’s not empirical to brush aside evidence because it’s inconsistent with your prior. If you don’t sharply revise your prior with new evidence, it might be that your P(X | ~A) term is too large. You might be overestimating the probability that I would be right when your prior said it was a stupid idea. Instead it might be very unlikely for me to pick the best stock out of 3000 when you don’t think it’s possible for me to do that, so your idea that it’s not possible for me to do that is off. Your prior was off, and if you’re a Bayesian you now need to update your prior sharply. My argument, expressed repeatedly to my brother over the course of 2018, was that the American stock market regularly turns up stocks that increase by an order of magnitude or two, and in a subset of cases it’s reasonably possible to spot that ahead of time. Pop quiz: name 3 stocks that have gone up by an order of magnitude, over any time frame in history. Pretty much anyone familiar with stocks could do this. Follow-up, out of those, name one where you think you could reasonably have predicted it in time to invest. Most people will readily come up with one where, yeah, reasonably, you could tell at the time. My strategy was based on taking these facts seriously. It was further based on the observation that it’s easier to make one good decision than five or ten. My brother’s and my situation with an inheritance, where the money was not committed, where we could afford to lose it without dying, gave us an opportunity to make one good decision and thus end all personal financial concerns forever. > If you had invested and lost it all, how would your brother have treated you? We discussed that contingency. If we’d invested it all and lost, my brother had a solid backup plan where he’d be okay, and I did as well. This inheritance was available to invest. > Why blame and be angry on him? My brother repeatedly expressed his support for this plan. I blame and am angry because he consistently expressed support for this plan through most of 2018, then failed to act in 2019 when he needed to take concrete action in support of the plan. > And you never know if you would have sold earlier. Like all people saying "wish I bought bitcoin back then I would be so rich now!". No, you wouldn't. You would have cashed out when that $1k was $10k, not daring hold to $1M. The stated plan was to hold to a pre-split price of 3800 or 6000, based on Elon Musk’s commitments to meet specific market cap goals laid out in his 2018 compensation package. We were prepared to hold til 2028. TSLA is now at a pre-split price of 4400, in the range of our goal price, so we’d now be trying to figure out the exact right time to sell.