4 ms·

Is there a market for put options on bitcoins?

by bagels 6y ago

tux3 6y ago
You may be joking, but there are plenty of those. Seeing the bubble is the easy part. Timing the top? Much harder!
- mamon 6y ago
  I think 15th of January 2021 is a good candidate for a tipping point. Unless NYAG backs out again, postponing their move against Tether.
  - Calamity 6y ago
    If you guys know where one could secure those types of put options, please fill me in. The only avenue atm for me seems to be a spread bet on margin... Which I'm not that keen on as "market irrational for longer than solvent" and so forth.
  - DaiPlusPlus 6y ago
    If I was a betting man I’d say the 21st January - because I can’t help but think BTC’s inflated price is predicated on the uncertainties in our political situation. I don’t mean that in a “collapse of western civilisation”-sense - I mean it more that Biden may normalise relations with countries where Bitcoin is used for-real because of sanctions or concerns over economic disenfranchisement: if people (and oligarchs) in Russia, Iran and Venezuela can participate in the normative financial systems (SWIFT, Visa, Mastercard, etc) then BTC has far less real utility and thus less value. Heck, I think if more US states and other countries legalise drugs that would also deal a blow (no pun intended) to BTC’s price.
- bagels 6y ago
  Definitely not a joke. Either side of that trade is a good way to lose money, so I'm not participating. Just wanted to know if it existed.
possiblelion 6y ago
absolutely, Deribit is the market leader on that. just be careful, put options on BTC have bankrupted a lot of people.
- f430 6y ago
  > put options on BTC have bankrupted a lot of people. If you understand that Bitcoin options really aren't options then this shouldn't come as a surprise. Shady exchanges see massive positions and have successfully manipulated bids and ask (most of it is fake) to trick others into selling or buying which in turn moves prices even more. Once they take out the "option traders" they simply move on to the next. Yet the inexperienced "speculator" believes its his fault. Wat I credit bitcoin and its community for is its ability to create a bubble of their version of reality which is almost always getting people to buy the bitcoins they are already holding. Without them, the system would collapse and they would lose their investment. Bitcoin is a vehicle for transfering wealth from the FOMO ignorant crowd who shouldn't be speculating on ponzi schemes. So many ruined lives because little guys bought into crypto, ICO, and other false hopes. Bitcoin will bankrupt a lot more people I'm afraid.
  - radu_floricica 6y ago
    If you play the market sure, you should expect a hefty risk to get burned. But to me, a birdseye view of bitcoin is a currency that's created by design to be deflationary, that found a niche as a value store. Sure, there are ups and downs, and also considerable risks long term (regulatory first of all), but it should be noted that pretty much anybody that ever bought btc has lived to see a higher price, regardless of ups and downs. That's what makes it very good for what it does (long term value store).
  - smabie 6y ago
    Deribit is a legitimate exchange.
- robkop 6y ago
  You weren't joking. They've got a live count per day [0]. [0]: https://pro.deribit.com/statistics/BTC/insurance-fund https://pro.deribit.com/statistics/BTC/insurance-fund
arbol 6y ago
Deribit
nullc 6y ago
For US investors? Sure. LedgerX. (Unlike some other place LedgerX is physically delivered, and not just a bucket-shop sidebet on the market). They have contracts out to Dec2022, though volume on the Dec2022 contracts haven't been particularly significant yet and generally puts trade much less vigorously than calls there. https://trade.ledgerx.com/live https://trade.ledgerx.com/live
ZitchDog 6y ago
It is stupid to short Bitcoin. Bitcoin has no fundamental value, but its fundamental value is greater than zero. Since the value of a Bitcoin is impossible to predict it could just as easily go up as down.
- BlueTemplar 6y ago
  This is true, but only because nothing has fundamental value.
  - andirk 6y ago
    Food and water have fundamental value.
    - BlueTemplar 6y ago
      Only if you're lacking them.
twobitshifter 6y ago
If you think you can time the top, why not try Tesla?
- bagels 6y ago
  I didn't claim I could. I was just wondering if there was a derivative market yet. Speculation on speculation.

Is there a market for put options on bitcoins?

by bagels 6y ago

Is there a market for put options on bitcoins?

tux3 6y ago

You may be joking, but there are plenty of those. Seeing the bubble is the easy part. Timing the top? Much harder!

mamon 6y ago
I think 15th of January 2021 is a good candidate for a tipping point. Unless NYAG backs out again, postponing their move against Tether.
- Calamity 6y ago
  If you guys know where one could secure those types of put options, please fill me in. The only avenue atm for me seems to be a spread bet on margin... Which I'm not that keen on as "market irrational for longer than solvent" and so forth.
- DaiPlusPlus 6y ago
  If I was a betting man I’d say the 21st January - because I can’t help but think BTC’s inflated price is predicated on the uncertainties in our political situation. I don’t mean that in a “collapse of western civilisation”-sense - I mean it more that Biden may normalise relations with countries where Bitcoin is used for-real because of sanctions or concerns over economic disenfranchisement: if people (and oligarchs) in Russia, Iran and Venezuela can participate in the normative financial systems (SWIFT, Visa, Mastercard, etc) then BTC has far less real utility and thus less value. Heck, I think if more US states and other countries legalise drugs that would also deal a blow (no pun intended) to BTC’s price.
bagels 6y ago
Definitely not a joke. Either side of that trade is a good way to lose money, so I'm not participating. Just wanted to know if it existed.

possiblelion 6y ago

absolutely, Deribit is the market leader on that. just be careful, put options on BTC have bankrupted a lot of people.

f430 6y ago
> put options on BTC have bankrupted a lot of people. If you understand that Bitcoin options really aren't options then this shouldn't come as a surprise. Shady exchanges see massive positions and have successfully manipulated bids and ask (most of it is fake) to trick others into selling or buying which in turn moves prices even more. Once they take out the "option traders" they simply move on to the next. Yet the inexperienced "speculator" believes its his fault. Wat I credit bitcoin and its community for is its ability to create a bubble of their version of reality which is almost always getting people to buy the bitcoins they are already holding. Without them, the system would collapse and they would lose their investment. Bitcoin is a vehicle for transfering wealth from the FOMO ignorant crowd who shouldn't be speculating on ponzi schemes. So many ruined lives because little guys bought into crypto, ICO, and other false hopes. Bitcoin will bankrupt a lot more people I'm afraid.
- radu_floricica 6y ago
  If you play the market sure, you should expect a hefty risk to get burned. But to me, a birdseye view of bitcoin is a currency that's created by design to be deflationary, that found a niche as a value store. Sure, there are ups and downs, and also considerable risks long term (regulatory first of all), but it should be noted that pretty much anybody that ever bought btc has lived to see a higher price, regardless of ups and downs. That's what makes it very good for what it does (long term value store).
- smabie 6y ago
  Deribit is a legitimate exchange.
robkop 6y ago
You weren't joking. They've got a live count per day [0]. [0]: https://pro.deribit.com/statistics/BTC/insurance-fund https://pro.deribit.com/statistics/BTC/insurance-fund

arbol 6y ago

Deribit

nullc 6y ago

For US investors? Sure. LedgerX. (Unlike some other place LedgerX is physically delivered, and not just a bucket-shop sidebet on the market). They have contracts out to Dec2022, though volume on the Dec2022 contracts haven't been particularly significant yet and generally puts trade much less vigorously than calls there. https://trade.ledgerx.com/live https://trade.ledgerx.com/live

ZitchDog 6y ago

It is stupid to short Bitcoin. Bitcoin has no fundamental value, but its fundamental value is greater than zero. Since the value of a Bitcoin is impossible to predict it could just as easily go up as down.

BlueTemplar 6y ago
This is true, but only because nothing has fundamental value.
- andirk 6y ago
  Food and water have fundamental value.
  - BlueTemplar 6y ago
    Only if you're lacking them.

twobitshifter 6y ago

If you think you can time the top, why not try Tesla?

bagels 6y ago
I didn't claim I could. I was just wondering if there was a derivative market yet. Speculation on speculation.