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Does this mean there's now a variant that is immune to all the vaccines, and we're basically back at square one with the pandemic?!?! :( or am I misunderstandin

Does this mean there's now a variant that is immune to all the vaccines, and we're basically back at square one with the pandemic?!?! :( or am I misunderstanding? Is it still protected against from mRNA vaccines, but just not prevented by immunity from past infections? I have no knowledge of biology whatsoever.

mckirk 6y ago
From what I've gathered, it's more like: It's likely that the vaccine will have reduced efficacy (seen over the whole population) against this new strain. That's because your immune system essentially learns to recognize a random part of the virus, and if it ends up "training" itself using that part of the spike protein that's changed in this strain, it won't detect the virus.
graeme 6y ago
Not square one. It’s unlikely there would be 0% efficacy. But it could be less. But also not square one because it takes literally a day to redesign mrna vaccines for new variants. Then hopefully they can be approved faster the second go and manufactured/distributed more quickly. But I’d say all northern hemisphere countries should do their best to focus on local elimination in summer 2021. Most of europe had it in reach summer 2020 but decided to reopen early and keep the virus at a low level. That was an abject failure. It probably only would have taken another month of heavy restrictions to eliminate. The mutations we’re seeing in the winter of high case volumes caution against doing another cycle like this.
- FuckButtons 6y ago
  That was very much the opinion of the immunologists I have been reading the opinions of recently. Giving this virus opportunity to mutate through allowing circulation is playing with fire next to a dynamite factory.
- TheRealSteel 6y ago
  Great, thanks for the info. mRNA tech really is amazing!! I agree. Everywhere should've pursued elimination strategy like Australia and New Zealand, and even at this late stage would be the best option.
  - Mediterraneo10 6y ago
    > Everywhere should've pursued elimination strategy like Australia and New Zealand Australia and New Zealand were very unusual in having that possibility, not everyone could have followed such a strategy. The EU had to move thousands and thousands of migrant agricultural workers from Eastern Europe to Western Europe for the harvests, otherwise there would have been scarcities of common foodstuffs. Also goods move through Europe largely through freight trucks that mean drivers moving about, not container shipping like the two island nations you mention.
    - graeme 6y ago
      I’m in Atlantic Canada, where we had eliminated it locally. We moved in agricultural workers, it was fine. We just had an isolation requirement and testing. We have freight trucks from the US too! A lot of obstacles are not, in fact, insurmountable. The actual issue is that most places weren’t aiming at elimination.
      - Mediterraneo10 6y ago
        > We moved in agricultural workers, it was fine. We just had an isolation requirement and testing. As you might remember, there was a shortage of tests the first time that the EU needed to move its agricultural workers en masse (which happened already in the spring – harvests in Spain are more or less continuous, unlike Atlantic Canada where it is much more restricted seasonally). Also, many of those agricultural laborers live in precarious working conditions that the state has little insight into, and arranging any kind of isolation on short notice was not possible. The EU was not aiming at total elimination because the virus had already spread throughout the bloc practically before the authorities were even aware of it and again, these are not island nations.
- Mediterraneo10 6y ago
  > But I’d say all northern hemisphere countries should do their best to focus on local elimination in summer 2021. This isn’t realistic. Fatigue with COVID restrictions has already set in across Europe: people are wearing masks in sloppy ways (not covering the nose, or even just putting the mask over their chin) and returning to socializing or even leisure travel. The authorities know this, and while they can do things like keep restaurants and theatres closed, they appear to feel little democratic mandate for using the police to enforce strict social separation between individuals. And that is in the winter: once the warm weather comes back, expect even more flaunting of restrictions.
  - graeme 6y ago
    That happened summer 2020 and look where things ended up. There are a few factors I think you’re missing: 1. The virus is seasonal. Substantially less restrictions are needed over the summer. Outdoor socialization really isn’t high risk 2. School is out. This naturally lowers spread 3. A bunch of people will be vaccinated. This will surely make it easier 4. We’ll probably have new rapid tests by the summer. They go a long way to reducing spread without much inconvenience. Michael Mina has been banging his head against the wall for months to get people to listen: these can be as effective as lockdowns and much less burdensome. 5. At least some countries will figure this out, go for elimination, and require a vaccine/negative test for entry and make travel arrangements with other covid zero areas Now it might be the vaccines work perfectly, no mutant strains escape them, and we won’t have a repeat of this in fall/winter 2021/22. But if that scenario does seem likely them elimination is overwhelmingly the best option. And society that can’t pull itself together to do that will live in a purgatory.
    - disabled 6y ago
      > 4. We’ll probably have new rapid tests by the summer. They go a long way to reducing spread without much inconvenience. Michael Mina has been banging his head against the wall for months to get people to listen: these can be as effective as lockdowns and much less burdensome. The “inconvenience” in the USA (besides outright coronavirus deniers and people who flout restrictions in contempt of expert and professional public health officials) is that there is no guaranteed paid sick/isolation leave if one is ordered to go into isolation. Given that 40% of Americans have less than $400 for a “rainy day”, going to work while sick may be necessary. Also, in a lot of cases, no job: no health insurance, which is tragic and consequential during a pandemic. You also need to have a strong public health system in place well in advance, where citizens already have been following and adhering to prevention programs for a long time, along with trust in the system. The EU countries generally do better with this, in the most general sense, but it depends on the country. For example, there are published reports of what percent of the country’s population washes their hands every time after they use the restroom. Some of the more “eastern” EU countries (which are now westernized) do way better that west/north Europe. Also, some countries routinely issue self-isolation orders for 14 days, and the police will check, multiple times. In some countries these fines are over $1,200 for the first offense, and for the second offense, it’s $20,000. Both of these fines are unaffordable for the majority of the population. Anyways, my point is that rapid self tests do work, but it requires a properly functioning government, with a strong public health system, and a cooperative public that trusts their officials and adheres to public health recommendations well before a pandemic occurs.

mckirk 6y ago

From what I've gathered, it's more like: It's likely that the vaccine will have reduced efficacy (seen over the whole population) against this new strain. That's because your immune system essentially learns to recognize a random part of the virus, and if it ends up "training" itself using that part of the spike protein that's changed in this strain, it won't detect the virus.

graeme 6y ago

Not square one. It’s unlikely there would be 0% efficacy. But it could be less. But also not square one because it takes literally a day to redesign mrna vaccines for new variants. Then hopefully they can be approved faster the second go and manufactured/distributed more quickly. But I’d say all northern hemisphere countries should do their best to focus on local elimination in summer 2021. Most of europe had it in reach summer 2020 but decided to reopen early and keep the virus at a low level. That was an abject failure. It probably only would have taken another month of heavy restrictions to eliminate. The mutations we’re seeing in the winter of high case volumes caution against doing another cycle like this.

FuckButtons 6y ago
That was very much the opinion of the immunologists I have been reading the opinions of recently. Giving this virus opportunity to mutate through allowing circulation is playing with fire next to a dynamite factory.
TheRealSteel 6y ago
Great, thanks for the info. mRNA tech really is amazing!! I agree. Everywhere should've pursued elimination strategy like Australia and New Zealand, and even at this late stage would be the best option.
- Mediterraneo10 6y ago
  > Everywhere should've pursued elimination strategy like Australia and New Zealand Australia and New Zealand were very unusual in having that possibility, not everyone could have followed such a strategy. The EU had to move thousands and thousands of migrant agricultural workers from Eastern Europe to Western Europe for the harvests, otherwise there would have been scarcities of common foodstuffs. Also goods move through Europe largely through freight trucks that mean drivers moving about, not container shipping like the two island nations you mention.
  - graeme 6y ago
    I’m in Atlantic Canada, where we had eliminated it locally. We moved in agricultural workers, it was fine. We just had an isolation requirement and testing. We have freight trucks from the US too! A lot of obstacles are not, in fact, insurmountable. The actual issue is that most places weren’t aiming at elimination.
    - Mediterraneo10 6y ago
      > We moved in agricultural workers, it was fine. We just had an isolation requirement and testing. As you might remember, there was a shortage of tests the first time that the EU needed to move its agricultural workers en masse (which happened already in the spring – harvests in Spain are more or less continuous, unlike Atlantic Canada where it is much more restricted seasonally). Also, many of those agricultural laborers live in precarious working conditions that the state has little insight into, and arranging any kind of isolation on short notice was not possible. The EU was not aiming at total elimination because the virus had already spread throughout the bloc practically before the authorities were even aware of it and again, these are not island nations.
Mediterraneo10 6y ago
> But I’d say all northern hemisphere countries should do their best to focus on local elimination in summer 2021. This isn’t realistic. Fatigue with COVID restrictions has already set in across Europe: people are wearing masks in sloppy ways (not covering the nose, or even just putting the mask over their chin) and returning to socializing or even leisure travel. The authorities know this, and while they can do things like keep restaurants and theatres closed, they appear to feel little democratic mandate for using the police to enforce strict social separation between individuals. And that is in the winter: once the warm weather comes back, expect even more flaunting of restrictions.
- graeme 6y ago
  That happened summer 2020 and look where things ended up. There are a few factors I think you’re missing: 1. The virus is seasonal. Substantially less restrictions are needed over the summer. Outdoor socialization really isn’t high risk 2. School is out. This naturally lowers spread 3. A bunch of people will be vaccinated. This will surely make it easier 4. We’ll probably have new rapid tests by the summer. They go a long way to reducing spread without much inconvenience. Michael Mina has been banging his head against the wall for months to get people to listen: these can be as effective as lockdowns and much less burdensome. 5. At least some countries will figure this out, go for elimination, and require a vaccine/negative test for entry and make travel arrangements with other covid zero areas Now it might be the vaccines work perfectly, no mutant strains escape them, and we won’t have a repeat of this in fall/winter 2021/22. But if that scenario does seem likely them elimination is overwhelmingly the best option. And society that can’t pull itself together to do that will live in a purgatory.
  - disabled 6y ago
    > 4. We’ll probably have new rapid tests by the summer. They go a long way to reducing spread without much inconvenience. Michael Mina has been banging his head against the wall for months to get people to listen: these can be as effective as lockdowns and much less burdensome. The “inconvenience” in the USA (besides outright coronavirus deniers and people who flout restrictions in contempt of expert and professional public health officials) is that there is no guaranteed paid sick/isolation leave if one is ordered to go into isolation. Given that 40% of Americans have less than $400 for a “rainy day”, going to work while sick may be necessary. Also, in a lot of cases, no job: no health insurance, which is tragic and consequential during a pandemic. You also need to have a strong public health system in place well in advance, where citizens already have been following and adhering to prevention programs for a long time, along with trust in the system. The EU countries generally do better with this, in the most general sense, but it depends on the country. For example, there are published reports of what percent of the country’s population washes their hands every time after they use the restroom. Some of the more “eastern” EU countries (which are now westernized) do way better that west/north Europe. Also, some countries routinely issue self-isolation orders for 14 days, and the police will check, multiple times. In some countries these fines are over $1,200 for the first offense, and for the second offense, it’s $20,000. Both of these fines are unaffordable for the majority of the population. Anyways, my point is that rapid self tests do work, but it requires a properly functioning government, with a strong public health system, and a cooperative public that trusts their officials and adheres to public health recommendations well before a pandemic occurs.