4 ms·

Israel has managed to give the first shot to 20% of its population, and at this rate will be into herd immunity territory by the end of the month. As far as pr

Israel has managed to give the first shot to 20% of its population, and at this rate will be into herd immunity territory by the end of the month. As far as pressures on healthcare systems though, once over 65s have been vaccinated (and the northern winter ends) the pressures pretty much vanish. > Similar to how we’ve never really admitted that people who’ve had COVID are immune and can no longer spread it. Well we don't know that. In many cases the virus reproduces and spreads without any symptoms. If the spread occurs before the immune system kicks in you could still be a carrier even though the vaccine makes your symptoms pretty much zero.

Aachen 6y ago
"once winter ends" I've been wondering about that. In June things were just great, but at the same time our health agency (RIVM) claims COVID-19 is not affected by seasons. Are they lying (since they're saying "is not" instead of "might not" / "unknown"), or was what happened around June a coincidence?
- GuB-42 6y ago
  I can't believe it is not a bit seasonal, whatever the reason is. First wave ended in June in the northern hemisphere and started in the southern hemisphere at about the same time. We are seeing a similar shift in the second wave. It can be a coincidence but since people are more likely to stay inside when it is cold outside, and transmission is more likely inside, it makes sense.
  - hutzlibu 6y ago
    "It can be a coincidence" Since the cold season is usually when it is cold outside, yeah. Might be more than coincidence.
- iso1210 6y ago
  More non-covid hospital pressure in winter. More people inside.
- graeme 6y ago
  On what basis are they saying it? Every single other coronavirus is seasonal, so I don’t see why this one wouldn’t be. Have a look at hcov’s seasonality in figure 2 here: https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-virology-012420-022445 https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-virology-0... “It’s not seasonal” is one of the mantras health agencies repeated in february, along with “masks aren’t shown to work” and “it doesn’t” spread by aerosol. My guess is your health agency simply hasn’t re-examined their beliefs as evidence came in.
- gomjabbar 6y ago
  Hello from summer in Australia right now
  - iso1210 6y ago
    NZ doesn't count as there's no cases. Austrialia has big problems in Austrailian 'winter', July through September, when daily cases were far higher
- eli_gottlieb 6y ago
  Easier in summer to just open every window and get enough of a breeze that it's harder to infect people.
zaroth 6y ago
> Well we don't know that. In many cases the virus reproduces and spreads without any symptoms. We know that asymptomatic people who are not immune can possibly spread the virus. But that’s a slightly different question. We know that it’s very rare for someone with antibodies to be symptomatically reinfected with COVID. That’s also a slightly different question. The specific question on the likelihood of someone with natural immunity to be able to later spread COVID without a symptomatic infection; I’ve never heard of a single confirmed case of this happening. And the point is not that it never happens, the point is it’s a negligible risk. Smaller than, for example, someone who isn’t immune who is wearing a mask. But from a public policy perspective, we’ll never actually admit this, just because the second order effects — where some people can rightfully walk around without a mask and are rightfully not subject to mitigations and lockdowns - are political untenable.
- selimthegrim 6y ago
  Well more the idea that immunity passports bring back memories of really bad old societal sequelae from the yellow fever days
  - iso1210 6y ago
    Yellow fever days? You mean before international travel mostly stopped? I have to show my yellow piece of paper with the stamp from my jab when I travel to several countries, most recently Nigeria
    - selimthegrim 6y ago
      In antebellum New Orleans, people would often try to get infected with yellow fever as soon as they got here to get it over with so if they survived they could claim immunity.

Aachen 6y ago

"once winter ends" I've been wondering about that. In June things were just great, but at the same time our health agency (RIVM) claims COVID-19 is not affected by seasons. Are they lying (since they're saying "is not" instead of "might not" / "unknown"), or was what happened around June a coincidence?

GuB-42 6y ago
I can't believe it is not a bit seasonal, whatever the reason is. First wave ended in June in the northern hemisphere and started in the southern hemisphere at about the same time. We are seeing a similar shift in the second wave. It can be a coincidence but since people are more likely to stay inside when it is cold outside, and transmission is more likely inside, it makes sense.
- hutzlibu 6y ago
  "It can be a coincidence" Since the cold season is usually when it is cold outside, yeah. Might be more than coincidence.
iso1210 6y ago
More non-covid hospital pressure in winter. More people inside.
graeme 6y ago
On what basis are they saying it? Every single other coronavirus is seasonal, so I don’t see why this one wouldn’t be. Have a look at hcov’s seasonality in figure 2 here: https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-virology-012420-022445 https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-virology-0... “It’s not seasonal” is one of the mantras health agencies repeated in february, along with “masks aren’t shown to work” and “it doesn’t” spread by aerosol. My guess is your health agency simply hasn’t re-examined their beliefs as evidence came in.
gomjabbar 6y ago
Hello from summer in Australia right now
- iso1210 6y ago
  NZ doesn't count as there's no cases. Austrialia has big problems in Austrailian 'winter', July through September, when daily cases were far higher
eli_gottlieb 6y ago
Easier in summer to just open every window and get enough of a breeze that it's harder to infect people.

zaroth 6y ago

> Well we don't know that. In many cases the virus reproduces and spreads without any symptoms. We know that asymptomatic people who are not immune can possibly spread the virus. But that’s a slightly different question. We know that it’s very rare for someone with antibodies to be symptomatically reinfected with COVID. That’s also a slightly different question. The specific question on the likelihood of someone with natural immunity to be able to later spread COVID without a symptomatic infection; I’ve never heard of a single confirmed case of this happening. And the point is not that it never happens, the point is it’s a negligible risk. Smaller than, for example, someone who isn’t immune who is wearing a mask. But from a public policy perspective, we’ll never actually admit this, just because the second order effects — where some people can rightfully walk around without a mask and are rightfully not subject to mitigations and lockdowns - are political untenable.

selimthegrim 6y ago
Well more the idea that immunity passports bring back memories of really bad old societal sequelae from the yellow fever days
- iso1210 6y ago
  Yellow fever days? You mean before international travel mostly stopped? I have to show my yellow piece of paper with the stamp from my jab when I travel to several countries, most recently Nigeria
  - selimthegrim 6y ago
    In antebellum New Orleans, people would often try to get infected with yellow fever as soon as they got here to get it over with so if they survived they could claim immunity.