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What worries me is that there doesn't seem to be some global coordination in the distribution of the vaccines. It looks more like an individual race, than a syn
by GistNoesis 6y ago
What worries me is that there doesn't seem to be some global coordination in the distribution of the vaccines. It looks more like an individual race, than a synchronized collective effort.
In the scenario where only the old accept to get vaccinated, and the vaccine doesn't reach the required threshold to stomp the virus. The virus become manageable, the economy reopen but the virus run rampant in the asymptotic population slowly mutating over-time until it finds a variant that is resistant to the vaccine by successfully infecting a vaccinated person.
And it just needs for this to happen in a large population cluster where the vaccination doesn't reach the threshold, either because they do not have access to the vaccine yet or because some fraction of the population decide to not get vaccinated, for everyone to get screwed-up again.
Then we get a new vaccine every year.
- Thorentis 6y agoCongratulations, you discovered the flu.
- GistNoesis 6y agoTouché ! What is so sad is that it can still be avoided. But the current situation where we simultaneously have a high number of active case and high number of vaccinated people over a sufficiently long time because of slow vaccination schedule, is a recipe for creating vaccine resistant variants. As soon as we start vaccinating we are giving the virus opportunities to pressure-select against the vaccine. The more active case we have and the longer it takes the better for the virus. I'm no epidemiologist, but with the apparition in a short amount of time of 2 variants which affects the spike protein, it seems the current level of active case we are entering a red-zone, where the virus is given too many opportunities to mutate. And we should try to contain it via the current measures (masks, tracking and lock-downs), before sabotaging our best card.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]