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It's worked out extremely well for AMD... and recall everyone was saying it would be the end of AMD when they spun off their FAB into Global Foundries. Fabrica

by Alupis 6y ago

It's worked out extremely well for AMD... and recall everyone was saying it would be the end of AMD when they spun off their FAB into Global Foundries. Fabricating, and design are very different businesses.

ogre_codes 6y ago
Well yes, but while AMD has great technology, their success as a CPU maker has always relied on the success of the x86 platform. The assumption is x86 will remain competitive for years to come, but that seems a lot less clear now. It feels like what ARM is doing right now is quite similar to what x86 did to mini computers and mainframes. ARM has become a competitive pressure that will prevent Intel and AMD from cashing in on that platform the way they have in the past. Chromebooks and the iPad have been nibbling at the low end for a few years now. Now Apple's M1 is taking a big chunk out of Intel's lucrative ultrabook market. Microsoft and other OEMs are going to start pushing harder on ARM just to stay competitive. Though being the sole licensee of x86, maybe AMD can pull a weird rabbit out of their hat.
- Alupis 6y ago
  AMD also has ARM irons in the fire[1]. [1] https://www.amd.com/en/amd-opteron-a1100 https://www.amd.com/en/amd-opteron-a1100
  - ogre_codes 6y ago
    I didn't realize AMD had ARM CPUs. I was trying to hint that AMD might make some weird hybrid x86/ ARM beast that could have the advantages of ARM much of the time, but could run x86 native. I'm not sure that's even possible. AMD might do well in a post x86 world. It's just a broader playing field.
    - Alupis 6y ago
      That would indeed be an interesting setup, kind of like the big.LITTLE configuration popular on a lot of high-end ARM processors. I'm sure it could be done... but probably would have some interesting effects on software (unless you do full x86 emulation on the ARM cores... but then what's the point). It's far more likely we'll start seeing ARM processors with hundreds or thousands of cores in the server market first. These would be particularly interesting to virtual server providers like Amazon, Google, Digital Ocean and others.
    - owowow 6y ago
      AMD stopped building these in 2016 and Amazon hired away most of the AMD team that worked on this chip.
  - perfopt 6y ago
    This was several years ago. They never really launched their ARM line. I believe they no longer have an ARM license. They certainly dont have a product ARM line
yread 6y ago
Extremely well? The split happened 12 years ago - AMD was struggling almost bankrupt until last year or two. Global Foundries is also not doing so well - they also gave up on chasing the latest process and focus on specialized 12nm stuff
- Alupis 6y ago
  Extremely well, yes. AMD, in fact, did not go bankrupt. Keeping their Fab arm was quite literally going to bankrupt them back when they made the decision to spin it off. They could not afford to sink the R&D cost into newer, smaller process fabing and recognized maintaining their own Fab would (a) bankrupt AMD attempting to push into newer processes and/or (b) prevent AMD from ever being competitive in the x86 market due to using old process. In hindsight, it was a brilliant move, and now has allowed AMD to partner with any Fab that has the technology AMD needs.
  - jjoonathan 6y ago
    It was brilliant -- but it reduced the number of leading-edge fab players from 3 to 2. Intel pulling the same move would reduce the number of leading-edge fab players from 2 to 1. See the problem?
    - Alupis 6y ago
      What? Intel hasn't been a "leading-edge" fab in years and years at this point. And that is exactly why they've lost their "advantage" over AMD. Intel got bogged down in very expensive R&D, and failed over and over to produce yield good enough to mass produce retail chips. As far as I know, TSMC and Samsung are both considered leading-edge.
      - jjoonathan 6y ago
        Samsung is burning money to produce chips a node behind TSMC. They are a leading-edge fab right now like Intel is a leading-edge fab right now. You're right that they are a contender, but the fab market is always going to be this way: one player will be the best, the others won't be. If you design CPUs but don't manufacture them, your supplier will always have a natural monopoly, meanwhile your customers have more options every day. Ditching the monopoly market to focus on the competitive market is not a good long-term strategy.

by Alupis 6y ago

ogre_codes 6y ago

Well yes, but while AMD has great technology, their success as a CPU maker has always relied on the success of the x86 platform. The assumption is x86 will remain competitive for years to come, but that seems a lot less clear now. It feels like what ARM is doing right now is quite similar to what x86 did to mini computers and mainframes. ARM has become a competitive pressure that will prevent Intel and AMD from cashing in on that platform the way they have in the past. Chromebooks and the iPad have been nibbling at the low end for a few years now. Now Apple's M1 is taking a big chunk out of Intel's lucrative ultrabook market. Microsoft and other OEMs are going to start pushing harder on ARM just to stay competitive. Though being the sole licensee of x86, maybe AMD can pull a weird rabbit out of their hat.

Alupis 6y ago
AMD also has ARM irons in the fire[1]. [1] https://www.amd.com/en/amd-opteron-a1100 https://www.amd.com/en/amd-opteron-a1100
- ogre_codes 6y ago
  I didn't realize AMD had ARM CPUs. I was trying to hint that AMD might make some weird hybrid x86/ ARM beast that could have the advantages of ARM much of the time, but could run x86 native. I'm not sure that's even possible. AMD might do well in a post x86 world. It's just a broader playing field.
  - Alupis 6y ago
    That would indeed be an interesting setup, kind of like the big.LITTLE configuration popular on a lot of high-end ARM processors. I'm sure it could be done... but probably would have some interesting effects on software (unless you do full x86 emulation on the ARM cores... but then what's the point). It's far more likely we'll start seeing ARM processors with hundreds or thousands of cores in the server market first. These would be particularly interesting to virtual server providers like Amazon, Google, Digital Ocean and others.
  - owowow 6y ago
    AMD stopped building these in 2016 and Amazon hired away most of the AMD team that worked on this chip.
- perfopt 6y ago
  This was several years ago. They never really launched their ARM line. I believe they no longer have an ARM license. They certainly dont have a product ARM line

yread 6y ago

Extremely well? The split happened 12 years ago - AMD was struggling almost bankrupt until last year or two. Global Foundries is also not doing so well - they also gave up on chasing the latest process and focus on specialized 12nm stuff

Alupis 6y ago
Extremely well, yes. AMD, in fact, did not go bankrupt. Keeping their Fab arm was quite literally going to bankrupt them back when they made the decision to spin it off. They could not afford to sink the R&D cost into newer, smaller process fabing and recognized maintaining their own Fab would (a) bankrupt AMD attempting to push into newer processes and/or (b) prevent AMD from ever being competitive in the x86 market due to using old process. In hindsight, it was a brilliant move, and now has allowed AMD to partner with any Fab that has the technology AMD needs.
- jjoonathan 6y ago
  It was brilliant -- but it reduced the number of leading-edge fab players from 3 to 2. Intel pulling the same move would reduce the number of leading-edge fab players from 2 to 1. See the problem?
  - Alupis 6y ago
    What? Intel hasn't been a "leading-edge" fab in years and years at this point. And that is exactly why they've lost their "advantage" over AMD. Intel got bogged down in very expensive R&D, and failed over and over to produce yield good enough to mass produce retail chips. As far as I know, TSMC and Samsung are both considered leading-edge.
    - jjoonathan 6y ago
      Samsung is burning money to produce chips a node behind TSMC. They are a leading-edge fab right now like Intel is a leading-edge fab right now. You're right that they are a contender, but the fab market is always going to be this way: one player will be the best, the others won't be. If you design CPUs but don't manufacture them, your supplier will always have a natural monopoly, meanwhile your customers have more options every day. Ditching the monopoly market to focus on the competitive market is not a good long-term strategy.