5 ms·

Look at it in terms of total number of deaths, not the rate. It's killed a LOT of people. Like 360,000 people in the US according to the CDC. https://covid.cd

Look at it in terms of total number of deaths, not the rate. It's killed a LOT of people. Like 360,000 people in the US according to the CDC. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100k... If you believe the numbers are cooked or something, then consider excess all-cause mortality there are clearly a LOT more dead people this year. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm I mean, you can just eyeball the weekly deaths graph between 2018 and now, and go 'oh, this isn't good.' There's no end in sight. LA ICUs are now nightmarish. "At Los Angeles County-USC Medical Center, the breaking point came Sunday night. There was not one available bed for at least 30 patients who needed intensive or intermediate levels of care, and the hospital had to shut its doors to all ambulance traffic for 12 hours. Some patients, including the very sick who required intensive oxygen, experienced wait times as long as 18 hours to get into the intensive care unit. The front entrance of Community Hospital of Huntington Park was closed to the public Monday; the back of the building saw a steady stream of ambulances over the weekend, with one security guard saying the vehicles arrived as frequently as every half hour. And Memorial Hospital of Gardena on Monday was running at 140% capacity, forcing officials to ask for a four-hour suspension of new ambulance calls so it could move patients. The hospital is struggling to keep enough oxygen and supplies on hand amid the crunch of COVID-19 patients who need it." ... "The crisis at Los Angeles County hospitals hit new levels as patients continued to stream in during the holiday weekend, and the medical system is bracing for a new wave of coronavirus spread arising from Christmas travel and gatherings. L.A. County’s cumulative COVID-19 death toll is expected to climb past 10,000 this week." https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-12-29/l-a-county-hospitals-at-the-breaking-point-turn-away-ambulances https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-12-29/l-a-coun... That's with the biggest state in the country (CA) jumping on the grenade and staying in lockdown. Imagine if CA behaved like North Dakota. Meanwhile, China is back to normal, with only minimal contact tracing required for the occasional outbreak here and there. They couldn't even run clinical trials for their vaccines in-country because not enough people have the virus anymore. There's a certain freedom in that. Hard to be free if you're dead.

salmon30salmon 6y ago
I do not think the numbers are cooked. I think you are interpreting them incorrectly, or disingenuously. We have had 399,857 deaths over the average expectation, and 328k over the upper bound. Are you saying that every single one of those excess deaths are from COVID infections? How many of those are from deaths of despair, lack of preventative healthcare due to closures, abuse, murders, aggravation of Alzheimer's etc. The simple fact, that I would love to hear a reasonable refutation of, is that a majority of the people who have died from COVID would have died this year from another cause. However, those who have died from the impact of our response would NOT have died this year. All in all, we reduced the number of life years due to our response. That is the problem. Edit: Lets look at state data. Florida has been widely criticized for their lax restrictions, while California has been widely celebrated for their lockdown. So which performed better? Florida has 18,000 excess deaths and a population of 21.48 million. California has had 37,000 excess deaths and a population of 39 millions. So about the fucking same. Notice also that a lot of the excess deaths in California came throughout the Summer, where there wasn't as big a spike as there is now.
- phaemon 6y ago
  Hospital beds are full. ICU beds are full. They are full of covid patients. That's the simplest I can put it. You're arguing against reality.
  - salmon30salmon 6y ago
    ICUs are always full. Literally. ICUs and ERs are on divert more often than not. At least in the USA, hospitals have a fiduciary responsibility to keep beds filled. We will just take the sicker ones now.
    - phaemon 6y ago
      They absolutely are not. Our typical occupancy this time of year would be around 50% (of pre-covid capacity) which is high because it's flu season. It's currently 140% which we can only accommodate because we've expanded the capacity specifically for covid. You don't know what you're talking about.

salmon30salmon 6y ago

I do not think the numbers are cooked. I think you are interpreting them incorrectly, or disingenuously. We have had 399,857 deaths over the average expectation, and 328k over the upper bound. Are you saying that every single one of those excess deaths are from COVID infections? How many of those are from deaths of despair, lack of preventative healthcare due to closures, abuse, murders, aggravation of Alzheimer's etc. The simple fact, that I would love to hear a reasonable refutation of, is that a majority of the people who have died from COVID would have died this year from another cause. However, those who have died from the impact of our response would NOT have died this year. All in all, we reduced the number of life years due to our response. That is the problem. Edit: Lets look at state data. Florida has been widely criticized for their lax restrictions, while California has been widely celebrated for their lockdown. So which performed better? Florida has 18,000 excess deaths and a population of 21.48 million. California has had 37,000 excess deaths and a population of 39 millions. So about the fucking same. Notice also that a lot of the excess deaths in California came throughout the Summer, where there wasn't as big a spike as there is now.

phaemon 6y ago
Hospital beds are full. ICU beds are full. They are full of covid patients. That's the simplest I can put it. You're arguing against reality.
- salmon30salmon 6y ago
  ICUs are always full. Literally. ICUs and ERs are on divert more often than not. At least in the USA, hospitals have a fiduciary responsibility to keep beds filled. We will just take the sicker ones now.
  - phaemon 6y ago
    They absolutely are not. Our typical occupancy this time of year would be around 50% (of pre-covid capacity) which is high because it's flu season. It's currently 140% which we can only accommodate because we've expanded the capacity specifically for covid. You don't know what you're talking about.