6 ms·

I still remember the reporting when the epidemic started in Wuhan and thinking how incredibly draconian they were being with a complete shutdown of an entire ci

by lhorie 6y ago

I still remember the reporting when the epidemic started in Wuhan and thinking how incredibly draconian they were being with a complete shutdown of an entire city; stores, roads, everything. Now in hindsight, I pause to wonder if it isn't more draconian to keep enforcing these half-assed rules for months on end - and being clearly ineffectively, if reports of ICU capacity are any indication...

LatteLazy 6y ago
I agree. I don't understand why we couldn't have closed the borders, had 2months of hardcore super lockdown and then been covid free. That's basically what happened in Melbourne. They had to do it twice because some idiot mixed with newly arrived travellers and spread it. But they're in a much better place than we are. Almost everything is open again.
- salmon30salmon 6y ago
  I've said it many times, Australia and New Zealand are both islands, this makes restricting ingress far easier than land borders controlled by many different authorities. Furthermore, many countries have laws that prohibit house arrest, which is essentially what you are suggesting here. Finally, unless the entire world did the same, we would not be "covid-free". As soon as one person with covid entered the country post-lockdown, cases would grow. If Australia had actually beaten covid, then they could welcome people back. But they didn't beat it! That isolated themselves from the world and continue to do so. That isn't beating it at all. You may be right that almost everything is open again, but there are also leaving thousands of their citizens stranded abroad. This is an absurd payoff for a virus that, at worst, kills .5% of people who contract it. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/australia-coronavirus-stranded-quarantine-travel/2020/12/10/6d990c60-2e0d-11eb-9dd6-2d0179981719_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/australia-...
  - LatteLazy 6y ago
    Sorry, I should have clarified: I'm a limey brit so closing our (my) border is almost as easy as it is for the aussies. Similarly, we have no constitution or bill of rights, so a house arrest law is easy and quick to pass. The issue with the .5% figure is that 5% of covid patients would die if they didn't receive care. So the death rate is only 0.5% until your last hospital bed / ventilators / nurse is busy. Then it's 5%. We've fucked about letting more and more people get it. Which is fine because 0.5% and because we're following the "herd immunity" strategy. Unlike Aus that went for eradication. But now, so many people are sick the hospitals are full. London expects to run out of beds within 2 weeks. Rest of the UK in 3 weeks. Given the 5-6 day incubation period, that means we need to reduce the R number below 1 by Monday in London (where people are densely packed and rely on public transport). You have 7 more days for the rest of the place. Or we accept the 5% marginal death rate. 5% is pretty fucking high. Look around your office, your sports team, your family and fields. Pick 1 in 20 to die. And that's 5% across the board. It's higher for your grandparents, your sick cousin etc. Plus you have people permanently disabled and "Long Covid" to factor in. So having encouraged people to go out, having let people test the rules and find them unenforced, and having done all the easy cheap shit (office worked wfh), the government finds it has to get very strict, convince people it means it this time, and get them to stay home, all in the next few days. Oh, and the current government was elected by the people most likely to die of this. And the current leader is dumb and lazy. And he's spent the last year promising his party no more lockdowns...
    - salmon30salmon 6y ago
      I will need proof that 5% of people would die if they didn't receive care. The hospitalization rate is not at 5% in my state, so on the face of it that number is bunk. And I doubt anyone would seriously contend that every hospitalization would be death but for hospitalization. But lets take your numbers as they are. It wouldn't be 5% of all infections, or 5% of all severe infections. It would be 5% of all infections _above hospital capacity_. Health systems wouldn't disappear, they would just not take in more folks, or triage more aggressively. I know you address this in your comment, but it is important to note. Because it greatly changes the emotional appeal for your emotional argument to spell it out. Don't bring long-covid in to this discussion, there is no real hard evidence that it even exists AND is an artifact of covid.
- gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
  > I don't understand why we couldn't have closed the borders This was literally the most opposed aspect of Trump's presidency. I suspect one element that hasn't been touched by Democrats is admitting that absolute control of the border is something they want but would look like complete hypocrites admitting.
  - LatteLazy 6y ago
    He claimed he wanted to close the borders because he was scared of Mexicans and Muslims. He did nothing when covid came knocking...
    - gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
      You're ignoring that his opposition immediately yelled racism when he was taking steps like shutting down flights, etc. Nancy Pelosi was encouraging everyone to go to Chinatown when the virus was beginning to spread. In retrospect it's obvious how pretentious and unhelpful that was. I'm just pointing out that politically the issue is tough given the stances people staked their identities on.
      - LatteLazy 6y ago
        I think you're conflating 2 different issues here. Or maybe I misunderstood you? If so sorry. Trump did launch a Muslim ban back in early 2017. Scotus struck it down. People called it racist. Trump later, separately, banned flights from China (with a bunch of exceptions, after most airlines already suspended them). I don't think anyone mainstream called him racist for that did they? Nancy Pelosi criticised it for being too little and too late (since the virus was already spreading fast in the US). But did she call it racist? Can you point me to who called Trump racist for the China travel ban?
        gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
        > On Jan. 31, President Trump issued the travel restrictions from China. One day after the travel restrictions were put into place, Biden said in Iowa, “We have, right now, a crisis with the coronavirus… This is no time for Donald Trump’s record of hysteria and xenophobia – hysterical xenophobia – and fearmongering to lead the way instead of science.” > Biden added, repeating a line from his USA Today oped: “Diseases have no borders, they have no borders.” > The same day, Biden Tweeted similarly, “A wall will not stop the coronavirus. Banning all travel from Europe — or any other part of the world — will not stop it…” https://www.cerescourier.com/opinion/editorial/biden-flips-china-travel-ban/ https://www.cerescourier.com/opinion/editorial/biden-flips-c... All Biden's statements are suffused with reminders of the idiotic things Trump is associated with even when it serves no purpose in context of a pandemic. "Diseases have no borders"? He was looking for opportunities to bring up campaign lines. At the end of the day, the narrative switched completely where before established health knowledge recognized NPIs outside of social distancing as largely ineffective.
- goatinaboat 6y ago
  I agree. I don't understand why we couldn't have closed the borders The UK does not have the capability to close its borders, even if we had the political will to do so. Odd for an island but it’s a fact. Too much coastline and too few people to patrol it.
salmon30salmon 6y ago
I find it absolutely terrifying that anyone would consider something as draconian as what happened in Wuhan to be a reasonable response to SARS-CoV-2. We are talking about a disease that has an IFR of .59%, with a vast majority of those deaths happening in those over 80 years old. If you truly believe that that trade-off is worth it, then I completely understand now how authoritarian governments convince otherwise logical people to submit. Create an enemy, make everyone afraid of it, and then claim you are the only one who can protect them. I am sure you are a smart, logical person. But your approval of what would be martial law for a .5% IFR is astounding.
- phobosanomaly 6y ago
  Look at it in terms of total number of deaths, not the rate. It's killed a LOT of people. Like 360,000 people in the US according to the CDC. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100k... If you believe the numbers are cooked or something, then consider excess all-cause mortality there are clearly a LOT more dead people this year. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm I mean, you can just eyeball the weekly deaths graph between 2018 and now, and go 'oh, this isn't good.' There's no end in sight. LA ICUs are now nightmarish. "At Los Angeles County-USC Medical Center, the breaking point came Sunday night. There was not one available bed for at least 30 patients who needed intensive or intermediate levels of care, and the hospital had to shut its doors to all ambulance traffic for 12 hours. Some patients, including the very sick who required intensive oxygen, experienced wait times as long as 18 hours to get into the intensive care unit. The front entrance of Community Hospital of Huntington Park was closed to the public Monday; the back of the building saw a steady stream of ambulances over the weekend, with one security guard saying the vehicles arrived as frequently as every half hour. And Memorial Hospital of Gardena on Monday was running at 140% capacity, forcing officials to ask for a four-hour suspension of new ambulance calls so it could move patients. The hospital is struggling to keep enough oxygen and supplies on hand amid the crunch of COVID-19 patients who need it." ... "The crisis at Los Angeles County hospitals hit new levels as patients continued to stream in during the holiday weekend, and the medical system is bracing for a new wave of coronavirus spread arising from Christmas travel and gatherings. L.A. County’s cumulative COVID-19 death toll is expected to climb past 10,000 this week." https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-12-29/l-a-county-hospitals-at-the-breaking-point-turn-away-ambulances https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-12-29/l-a-coun... That's with the biggest state in the country (CA) jumping on the grenade and staying in lockdown. Imagine if CA behaved like North Dakota. Meanwhile, China is back to normal, with only minimal contact tracing required for the occasional outbreak here and there. They couldn't even run clinical trials for their vaccines in-country because not enough people have the virus anymore. There's a certain freedom in that. Hard to be free if you're dead.

by lhorie 6y ago

LatteLazy 6y ago

I agree. I don't understand why we couldn't have closed the borders, had 2months of hardcore super lockdown and then been covid free. That's basically what happened in Melbourne. They had to do it twice because some idiot mixed with newly arrived travellers and spread it. But they're in a much better place than we are. Almost everything is open again.

salmon30salmon 6y ago
I've said it many times, Australia and New Zealand are both islands, this makes restricting ingress far easier than land borders controlled by many different authorities. Furthermore, many countries have laws that prohibit house arrest, which is essentially what you are suggesting here. Finally, unless the entire world did the same, we would not be "covid-free". As soon as one person with covid entered the country post-lockdown, cases would grow. If Australia had actually beaten covid, then they could welcome people back. But they didn't beat it! That isolated themselves from the world and continue to do so. That isn't beating it at all. You may be right that almost everything is open again, but there are also leaving thousands of their citizens stranded abroad. This is an absurd payoff for a virus that, at worst, kills .5% of people who contract it. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/australia-coronavirus-stranded-quarantine-travel/2020/12/10/6d990c60-2e0d-11eb-9dd6-2d0179981719_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/australia-...
- LatteLazy 6y ago
  Sorry, I should have clarified: I'm a limey brit so closing our (my) border is almost as easy as it is for the aussies. Similarly, we have no constitution or bill of rights, so a house arrest law is easy and quick to pass. The issue with the .5% figure is that 5% of covid patients would die if they didn't receive care. So the death rate is only 0.5% until your last hospital bed / ventilators / nurse is busy. Then it's 5%. We've fucked about letting more and more people get it. Which is fine because 0.5% and because we're following the "herd immunity" strategy. Unlike Aus that went for eradication. But now, so many people are sick the hospitals are full. London expects to run out of beds within 2 weeks. Rest of the UK in 3 weeks. Given the 5-6 day incubation period, that means we need to reduce the R number below 1 by Monday in London (where people are densely packed and rely on public transport). You have 7 more days for the rest of the place. Or we accept the 5% marginal death rate. 5% is pretty fucking high. Look around your office, your sports team, your family and fields. Pick 1 in 20 to die. And that's 5% across the board. It's higher for your grandparents, your sick cousin etc. Plus you have people permanently disabled and "Long Covid" to factor in. So having encouraged people to go out, having let people test the rules and find them unenforced, and having done all the easy cheap shit (office worked wfh), the government finds it has to get very strict, convince people it means it this time, and get them to stay home, all in the next few days. Oh, and the current government was elected by the people most likely to die of this. And the current leader is dumb and lazy. And he's spent the last year promising his party no more lockdowns...
  - salmon30salmon 6y ago
    I will need proof that 5% of people would die if they didn't receive care. The hospitalization rate is not at 5% in my state, so on the face of it that number is bunk. And I doubt anyone would seriously contend that every hospitalization would be death but for hospitalization. But lets take your numbers as they are. It wouldn't be 5% of all infections, or 5% of all severe infections. It would be 5% of all infections _above hospital capacity_. Health systems wouldn't disappear, they would just not take in more folks, or triage more aggressively. I know you address this in your comment, but it is important to note. Because it greatly changes the emotional appeal for your emotional argument to spell it out. Don't bring long-covid in to this discussion, there is no real hard evidence that it even exists AND is an artifact of covid.
gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
> I don't understand why we couldn't have closed the borders This was literally the most opposed aspect of Trump's presidency. I suspect one element that hasn't been touched by Democrats is admitting that absolute control of the border is something they want but would look like complete hypocrites admitting.
- LatteLazy 6y ago
  He claimed he wanted to close the borders because he was scared of Mexicans and Muslims. He did nothing when covid came knocking...
  - gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
    You're ignoring that his opposition immediately yelled racism when he was taking steps like shutting down flights, etc. Nancy Pelosi was encouraging everyone to go to Chinatown when the virus was beginning to spread. In retrospect it's obvious how pretentious and unhelpful that was. I'm just pointing out that politically the issue is tough given the stances people staked their identities on.
    - LatteLazy 6y ago
      I think you're conflating 2 different issues here. Or maybe I misunderstood you? If so sorry. Trump did launch a Muslim ban back in early 2017. Scotus struck it down. People called it racist. Trump later, separately, banned flights from China (with a bunch of exceptions, after most airlines already suspended them). I don't think anyone mainstream called him racist for that did they? Nancy Pelosi criticised it for being too little and too late (since the virus was already spreading fast in the US). But did she call it racist? Can you point me to who called Trump racist for the China travel ban?
      - gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
        > On Jan. 31, President Trump issued the travel restrictions from China. One day after the travel restrictions were put into place, Biden said in Iowa, “We have, right now, a crisis with the coronavirus… This is no time for Donald Trump’s record of hysteria and xenophobia – hysterical xenophobia – and fearmongering to lead the way instead of science.” > Biden added, repeating a line from his USA Today oped: “Diseases have no borders, they have no borders.” > The same day, Biden Tweeted similarly, “A wall will not stop the coronavirus. Banning all travel from Europe — or any other part of the world — will not stop it…” https://www.cerescourier.com/opinion/editorial/biden-flips-china-travel-ban/ https://www.cerescourier.com/opinion/editorial/biden-flips-c... All Biden's statements are suffused with reminders of the idiotic things Trump is associated with even when it serves no purpose in context of a pandemic. "Diseases have no borders"? He was looking for opportunities to bring up campaign lines. At the end of the day, the narrative switched completely where before established health knowledge recognized NPIs outside of social distancing as largely ineffective.
goatinaboat 6y ago
I agree. I don't understand why we couldn't have closed the borders The UK does not have the capability to close its borders, even if we had the political will to do so. Odd for an island but it’s a fact. Too much coastline and too few people to patrol it.

salmon30salmon 6y ago

I find it absolutely terrifying that anyone would consider something as draconian as what happened in Wuhan to be a reasonable response to SARS-CoV-2. We are talking about a disease that has an IFR of .59%, with a vast majority of those deaths happening in those over 80 years old. If you truly believe that that trade-off is worth it, then I completely understand now how authoritarian governments convince otherwise logical people to submit. Create an enemy, make everyone afraid of it, and then claim you are the only one who can protect them. I am sure you are a smart, logical person. But your approval of what would be martial law for a .5% IFR is astounding.

phobosanomaly 6y ago
Look at it in terms of total number of deaths, not the rate. It's killed a LOT of people. Like 360,000 people in the US according to the CDC. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100k... If you believe the numbers are cooked or something, then consider excess all-cause mortality there are clearly a LOT more dead people this year. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm I mean, you can just eyeball the weekly deaths graph between 2018 and now, and go 'oh, this isn't good.' There's no end in sight. LA ICUs are now nightmarish. "At Los Angeles County-USC Medical Center, the breaking point came Sunday night. There was not one available bed for at least 30 patients who needed intensive or intermediate levels of care, and the hospital had to shut its doors to all ambulance traffic for 12 hours. Some patients, including the very sick who required intensive oxygen, experienced wait times as long as 18 hours to get into the intensive care unit. The front entrance of Community Hospital of Huntington Park was closed to the public Monday; the back of the building saw a steady stream of ambulances over the weekend, with one security guard saying the vehicles arrived as frequently as every half hour. And Memorial Hospital of Gardena on Monday was running at 140% capacity, forcing officials to ask for a four-hour suspension of new ambulance calls so it could move patients. The hospital is struggling to keep enough oxygen and supplies on hand amid the crunch of COVID-19 patients who need it." ... "The crisis at Los Angeles County hospitals hit new levels as patients continued to stream in during the holiday weekend, and the medical system is bracing for a new wave of coronavirus spread arising from Christmas travel and gatherings. L.A. County’s cumulative COVID-19 death toll is expected to climb past 10,000 this week." https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-12-29/l-a-county-hospitals-at-the-breaking-point-turn-away-ambulances https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-12-29/l-a-coun... That's with the biggest state in the country (CA) jumping on the grenade and staying in lockdown. Imagine if CA behaved like North Dakota. Meanwhile, China is back to normal, with only minimal contact tracing required for the occasional outbreak here and there. They couldn't even run clinical trials for their vaccines in-country because not enough people have the virus anymore. There's a certain freedom in that. Hard to be free if you're dead.