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Is there any proof or data on Tether issuance preceding rallies? Because I have seen this claim often made on Twitter, but never with any sources. I personally
by gillesjacobs 6y ago
Is there any proof or data on Tether issuance preceding rallies? Because I have seen this claim often made on Twitter, but never with any sources.
I personally dislike Tether and avoid it, but strong claims require strong evidence.
- long 6y agoHere's an econ paper that studies that question: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342185292_Is_Bitcoin_Really_Untethered https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342185292_Is_Bitcoi...
- gillesjacobs 6y agoThanks, I will have to read it carefully, but from the abstract it doesn't seem as simple as "increased Tether printing makes BTC rally." But if there is in fact a statistically significant correlation, I would personally wager there's causation and hedge my bets accordingly.
- long 6y agoI think the abstract does effectively say that: "these patterns are most consistent with the supply‐based hypothesis of unbacked digital money inflating cryptocurrency prices." And this point is made more forcefully in the paper. FWIW, I don't have a strong opinion on the evidence presented in the paper -- the analyses seem sensible, but this isn't my field of expertise, so I'd be hard pressed to point out, for example, what alternative analyses they could / should have done. Also, it's not even obvious to me that unbacked Tether causing the BTC price rallies is necessarily a reason to pull out; markets are weird.