3 ms·
A prediction without a time horizon is just a feeling.
by prostoalex 6y ago
A prediction without a time horizon is just a feeling.
- david927 6y agoThat's a bit unfair. If there's a time window then people will short, which will then force a short squeeze and instead of collapsing it will balloon more. The share price is already reflecting that people thought it would have collapsed last year.
- gremlinsinc 6y agoI'm not an investor, I'm out of work, wish I had money to gamble at the moment, but something tells me the smarter move would be creating some sentiment algorithm that invests like $500 every time a positive/electric car article comes out in a competitor. Say Toyota releases new electric car, invest $500 immediately in Toyota, Nissan, do the same, etc... Because when the tide turns all that money will go into whichever competitors are still standing and have the best e-car portfolios. Best to diversify. If you could time it right, sure shortsell, but that's a HUGE risk, this one not so much...again I'm NOT a financial guru, my negative bank account could prove that, but it's just a hunch I have, a similar one I had in 2013 about bitcoin and kick myself daily for every day.
- andrewmcwatters 6y agoWhat feeling? The market cap to asset ratio for Tesla is nearly 25.
- pfortuny 6y agoActually, this kind of prediction is just a fact by the laws of probability...
- pdog 6y agoGenerally speaking, you don't initiate a short position with longer than a two- to three-year time horizon. The cost of borrowing the shares, plus the opportunity cost of holding cash for margin maintenance requirements, is too prohibitive.
- xkjkls 6y agoThis is only in the current low interest rate environment. Back in the day you kids probably don't remember, where interest rates weren't 0, you could make some serious returns from the cash you got from selling the shares short.