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The path to the current share price is littered with the bodies of past shorts....

by aurizon 6y ago

totalZero 6y ago
And yet, the fact that past speculators blew out their shorts has no bearing on whether the stock is presently rich.
- aurizon 6y ago
  It is hard to say how well Tesla will complete their giga factories and bring them into production. The Chinese one was a Tour de Force, if Texas and Germany get completed and into production in a similar way to defeat the gathering forces of the IC car industries electrification efforts then the share price will tend to flatline as Tesla and reality meet. If the IC car makers create a few years of crappy products(as is likely) their stumbles(which Tesla has already put behind it, I hope), then it may even go higher and the short-fry will become epic...
- jfengel 6y ago
  It has a bearing on whether future speculators will be able to remain solvent longer than the market can remain irrational.
  - totalZero 6y ago
    The outcome of a past coin toss tells us nothing about the outcome of a subsequent toss.
gremlinsinc 6y ago
Shorts cost money in interest etc, wouldn't it be better to hedge your bets, and just invest in the competitors evenly adjusting for news stories and maybe some sentiment analysis? If just one or two hit the electric bandwagon hard and start eating into TSLA's lead, then you hit pay dirt. Less payout, but less risk as well.
- aurizon 6y ago
  The change to EVs will proceed far faster than Tesla can keep up. Even the new EVs by the trsditional IC car makers will ramp slowly as the inevitable stumbles cause recalls and production delays. People are now witnessing the huge economies in EV, both in terms of far lower electric power costs coupled with the far lower mechanical repair costs due to the ability of an electric motor to last millions of miles compared to the thousands of threshing/wearing parts in an IC machine. The high first cost has been a barrier. I can see no reason that a large car, with a well streamlined body, and only 150-200 miles range as well as a far smaller motor than Tesla can not fill the low end chevy niche. This will save on the first cost of the battery. Many people can operate within that range for days and new houses will all have chargers, same with new condos. Many deliverers can use a small cube van that only goes 150 miles on a charge. With flat floors, they can easily make 2-3 versions with extra battery space under the floor as ordered. There will be an epic expansion of EVs over the next 10 years, and all makers will expand into that space. Short selling is a form of informed gambling/guessing...

The path to the current share price is littered with the bodies of past shorts....

totalZero 6y ago

And yet, the fact that past speculators blew out their shorts has no bearing on whether the stock is presently rich.

aurizon 6y ago
It is hard to say how well Tesla will complete their giga factories and bring them into production. The Chinese one was a Tour de Force, if Texas and Germany get completed and into production in a similar way to defeat the gathering forces of the IC car industries electrification efforts then the share price will tend to flatline as Tesla and reality meet. If the IC car makers create a few years of crappy products(as is likely) their stumbles(which Tesla has already put behind it, I hope), then it may even go higher and the short-fry will become epic...
jfengel 6y ago
It has a bearing on whether future speculators will be able to remain solvent longer than the market can remain irrational.
- totalZero 6y ago
  The outcome of a past coin toss tells us nothing about the outcome of a subsequent toss.

gremlinsinc 6y ago

Shorts cost money in interest etc, wouldn't it be better to hedge your bets, and just invest in the competitors evenly adjusting for news stories and maybe some sentiment analysis? If just one or two hit the electric bandwagon hard and start eating into TSLA's lead, then you hit pay dirt. Less payout, but less risk as well.

aurizon 6y ago
The change to EVs will proceed far faster than Tesla can keep up. Even the new EVs by the trsditional IC car makers will ramp slowly as the inevitable stumbles cause recalls and production delays. People are now witnessing the huge economies in EV, both in terms of far lower electric power costs coupled with the far lower mechanical repair costs due to the ability of an electric motor to last millions of miles compared to the thousands of threshing/wearing parts in an IC machine. The high first cost has been a barrier. I can see no reason that a large car, with a well streamlined body, and only 150-200 miles range as well as a far smaller motor than Tesla can not fill the low end chevy niche. This will save on the first cost of the battery. Many people can operate within that range for days and new houses will all have chargers, same with new condos. Many deliverers can use a small cube van that only goes 150 miles on a charge. With flat floors, they can easily make 2-3 versions with extra battery space under the floor as ordered. There will be an epic expansion of EVs over the next 10 years, and all makers will expand into that space. Short selling is a form of informed gambling/guessing...