8 ms·

'Big Short' investor predicts Tesla stock will collapse like the housing bubble

48 points by mgh2 6y ago

aurizon 6y ago
The path to the current share price is littered with the bodies of past shorts....
- totalZero 6y ago
  And yet, the fact that past speculators blew out their shorts has no bearing on whether the stock is presently rich.
  - aurizon 6y ago
    It is hard to say how well Tesla will complete their giga factories and bring them into production. The Chinese one was a Tour de Force, if Texas and Germany get completed and into production in a similar way to defeat the gathering forces of the IC car industries electrification efforts then the share price will tend to flatline as Tesla and reality meet. If the IC car makers create a few years of crappy products(as is likely) their stumbles(which Tesla has already put behind it, I hope), then it may even go higher and the short-fry will become epic...
  - jfengel 6y ago
    It has a bearing on whether future speculators will be able to remain solvent longer than the market can remain irrational.
    - totalZero 6y ago
      The outcome of a past coin toss tells us nothing about the outcome of a subsequent toss.
- gremlinsinc 6y ago
  Shorts cost money in interest etc, wouldn't it be better to hedge your bets, and just invest in the competitors evenly adjusting for news stories and maybe some sentiment analysis? If just one or two hit the electric bandwagon hard and start eating into TSLA's lead, then you hit pay dirt. Less payout, but less risk as well.
  - aurizon 6y ago
    The change to EVs will proceed far faster than Tesla can keep up. Even the new EVs by the trsditional IC car makers will ramp slowly as the inevitable stumbles cause recalls and production delays. People are now witnessing the huge economies in EV, both in terms of far lower electric power costs coupled with the far lower mechanical repair costs due to the ability of an electric motor to last millions of miles compared to the thousands of threshing/wearing parts in an IC machine. The high first cost has been a barrier. I can see no reason that a large car, with a well streamlined body, and only 150-200 miles range as well as a far smaller motor than Tesla can not fill the low end chevy niche. This will save on the first cost of the battery. Many people can operate within that range for days and new houses will all have chargers, same with new condos. Many deliverers can use a small cube van that only goes 150 miles on a charge. With flat floors, they can easily make 2-3 versions with extra battery space under the floor as ordered. There will be an epic expansion of EVs over the next 10 years, and all makers will expand into that space. Short selling is a form of informed gambling/guessing...
mgh2 6y ago
Yeah, it will be interesting to see how he gets vilified as the "anti-Cathy Woods" (if) the trend reverses. Unpopular views are always attacked/ridiculed, so keep this in check.
prostoalex 6y ago
A prediction without a time horizon is just a feeling.
- david927 6y ago
  That's a bit unfair. If there's a time window then people will short, which will then force a short squeeze and instead of collapsing it will balloon more. The share price is already reflecting that people thought it would have collapsed last year.
  - gremlinsinc 6y ago
    I'm not an investor, I'm out of work, wish I had money to gamble at the moment, but something tells me the smarter move would be creating some sentiment algorithm that invests like $500 every time a positive/electric car article comes out in a competitor. Say Toyota releases new electric car, invest $500 immediately in Toyota, Nissan, do the same, etc... Because when the tide turns all that money will go into whichever competitors are still standing and have the best e-car portfolios. Best to diversify. If you could time it right, sure shortsell, but that's a HUGE risk, this one not so much...again I'm NOT a financial guru, my negative bank account could prove that, but it's just a hunch I have, a similar one I had in 2013 about bitcoin and kick myself daily for every day.
- andrewmcwatters 6y ago
  What feeling? The market cap to asset ratio for Tesla is nearly 25.
- pfortuny 6y ago
  Actually, this kind of prediction is just a fact by the laws of probability...
- pdog 6y ago
  Generally speaking, you don't initiate a short position with longer than a two- to three-year time horizon. The cost of borrowing the shares, plus the opportunity cost of holding cash for margin maintenance requirements, is too prohibitive.
java-man 6y ago
It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future. [0] https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/10/20/no-predict/ https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/10/20/no-predict/
totalZero 6y ago
The biggest catalyst on the horizon for TSLA is actually the mainstream buy-in of major automakers into EVs. There are two reasons why this is actually bad for TSLA: 1. Tesla Motors makes money on regulatory credits that conventional automakers must purchase in order to offset their ICE vehicle production. That's actually Tesla's only source of profit. Unfortunately for Tesla Motors, those regulatory credits aren't going to be in such high demand in a world where major automakers each produce hundreds of thousands of electric vehicles. 2. Tesla Motors doesn't currently compete on things like build quality and fit/finish, because the major factor determining whether you want to buy a Tesla is whether you want to buy an electric car. However, the time will come when you can get a mainstream electric car with the interior of an Audi, or the reliability of a Toyota, or the utility of a Ford truck. That competitive environment would be a wind shift for Tesla's business, not to mention the amount of pressure that other automakers will put on Tesla's autonomous driving features in court and with regulators.
- worker767424 6y ago
  > regulatory credits Why is it that all of Musk's companies rely on government support in some significant way?
  - xyzzyz 6y ago
    > government support I wouldn’t exactly call tax credits “government support”. They are, no doubt, very beneficial to Tesla, and other recipients of these tax credits. They aren’t support though: it’s the rest of the companies that are more burdened by the taxes.
  - sawjet 6y ago
    the government wanted to buy something and they have the means to sell it to them. How is that reliance on government support?
  - akmiller 6y ago
    I suggest you don't look at the oil companies and traditional auto manufacturers if you think this is just an Elon Musk thing!
hourislate 6y ago
It's frightening, at the current rate Tesla will soon be worth more than every auto manufacturer in the world put together. Tesla market cap as of January 07, 2021 is $696.81B. It's well over 700B today. Market Cap as of Jan 7, 2021 Toyota is $214.45B. General Motors is $59.63B. Ford Motor is $35.17B. Fiat Chrysler Automobiles is $36.13B. VW is 89.23B. Porsche is 21B. Audi is 83B. Nissan is 20B. Honda 49B.
- tutfbhuf 6y ago
  > at the current rate Tesla will soon be worth more than every... company on earth put together. Just a few more x10 away.
  - camjohnson26 6y ago
    They’re already bigger than the entire stock market of several countries.
    - mywittyname 6y ago
      There are many very small countries and few large ones.
- worker767424 6y ago
  I'm a Tesla bear, but I know better than to bet against it. Arguably, Tesla's implied success is priced into to these other car companies. A lot of these companies are behind on electric cars, Toyota in particular.
  - camjohnson26 6y ago
    Tesla’s product is the stock, pure and simple. Everything they do from rushing the model Y, causing its lead engineer to leave the company, to battery day, autonomy day, $420 funding secured, the solar city merger, the semi, roadster, FSD, all of these exist to support the stock price and nothing else.
11thEarlOfMar 6y ago
At the same P/E that Apple currently holds, and assuming a 15% net margin for Tesla, Elon needs to sell 5x the cars he sold in 2020 to yield today's price. Current auto capacity is 2x units sold in 2020 (Fremont + Shanghai). By the end of 2021, will be 3x (+Berlin). By the end of 2022, should be 4-5x with Texas and expansions at the earlier factories. Tesla will be producing the Cyber Truck, Semi tractor and updated Roadster, though the unit leader should be Model Y(?). Historic sales growth is somewhat behind capacity growth. 2017 ended at about $12B. 2020 is tracking to maybe $32B. That's around 40% annual sales growth. Let's call 2.5 million cars $125B in sales. At 40%, Tesla needs around 4 years to get to the $125B level. Essentially, the back of my envelope says long buyers today will need to hold for 4 years to see a profit based on some semblance of fundamentals. Stock prices for high-growth companies can be fluffy for a long time. I absolutely agree that current levels are in the realm of absurdly ridiculous, but as long as the underlying economy doesn't crater, the exuberants can be irrational for quite a long time. Can they hold out for 4 years?
- xyzzyz 6y ago
  Why would you compare with Apple, though, instead of other auto companies?
  - DamnYuppie 6y ago
    I think for many investors the large appeal of Tesla is in the batteries and infrastructure put in place for charge stations.
    - xyzzyz 6y ago
      If it's about batteries, why isn't then Panasonic stock booming? Panasonic is the one that's actually supplying the technology and building the Tesla's battery factories. However, Panasonic's market cap is less than 5% of Tesla's, and batteries are not even its main business. It seems that the investors value Panasonic's battery technology and expertise at something like 1% of Tesla's market cap. I'm not sure what exactly you mean by "infrastructure put in place", but I can't imagine running charge stations to be hugely profitable business: gas stations most certainly aren't. They might still be pretty good business, but they clearly are not so good to account for hundreds of billions in valuation.
sleepysysadmin 6y ago
Typical PE ratio for any stock is on average around 17. Just before the financial crisis the market average was around 25. Before the dotcom bust it was 25-30. TSLA is at 1,671 LOL!!! The market right now is around 40. Obviously technically we are in a recession but the stock market is going up. So where's the crash? What are your typical measures that we have a massive market crash coming? If people believe this they will move their money to something that shouldnt crash or at least are isolated. Amazon is sky high as well. Bitcoin is at $40,000. Ethereum is way up as well. Gold is way up. Bond market is way down(implying people are buying bonds in droves) Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, France, Switzerland are all negative interest rates. The thing about the summer and covid lockdowns. People got out to spend money in the summer due to lockdown being over. We are now back to lockdown. Which means earnings calls are going to be bad. Late spring we will be seeing the crash. People are moving their money now to safer places. Tesla, Amazon, Gold, Bitcoin, Bonds is how they are doing it. When the crash comes, it will likely not be Tesla.
- dmode 6y ago
  There will be no crash as we have demonstrated that you can always print money
  - sleepysysadmin 6y ago
    >There will be no crash as we have demonstrated that you can always print money One of the best metrics to see this: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/central-bank-balance-sheet https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/central-bank-bala... Basically in a fiat currency the very last place for debt to go. You can clearly see when the financial crisis happened and how the USA never really recovered from it. Then you can see when the covid recession hit. https://tradingeconomics.com/venezuela/central-bank-balance-sheet https://tradingeconomics.com/venezuela/central-bank-balance-... There's only 2 ways to see where this goes. It means bankruptcy OR major inflation. Biden government will decide which they choose.
- marvin 6y ago
  You can get an arbitrarily high P/E ratio if you're running a growth company that aggressively reinvests. It's a meaningless metric in this context. Look at gross margin and price to revenue instead. Tesla is still richly priced by these, but within the realm of plausibility if you make the right assumptions.
subsubzero 6y ago
I'm mixed on tesla. I bought in when the stock was at ~$50 in 2013 and sold after it jumped to $175. I bought into the company as I was seeing model S's everywhere I looked and realized it was a company that was growing rapidly. Fast forward a few years I owned a house that has solarcity(owned by tesla now) panels on the roof, the roof needs to be replaced and dealing with solarcity was probably one of the worst experiences I have ever dealt with in my life. After that experience I wrote off Tesla as a really badly run company and have since never owned their stock. I think alot of the growth is FOMO and extreme hype around the cult of Elon Musk. I like that Musk takes chances and goes for moonshots, we need more of that in todays society. That being said the stock is in stupid territory and I'll be taking a short position myself(I think even Elon thinks its overvalued).
systemtrigger 6y ago
Burry has been predicting the fall of TSLA for months. On Sep 22 he compared its market cap / total revenue (17.84) and -$69M EBIT to the other top 32 global auto makers (0.35 and $100B EBIT).[1] Even back then the market cap / EBIT of TSLA (-6,353) looked crazy compared to that of the global auto industry w/o TSLA (8.08). Then Tesla released its 3rd quarter earnings (which moderately surpassed Wall Street's expectations) and the stock has since risen dramatically. Burry's argument that TSLA is overvalued appears cogent based on Sep 22 data and more so today. Burry deleted hundreds of his tweets from 2020.[2] He should stick to picking stocks. His #FauciFraud nonsense was irresponsible.[3] [1] http://web.archive.org/web/20200924024110/https://twitter.com/michaeljburry/ http://web.archive.org/web/20200924024110/https://twitter.co... [2] http://web.archive.org/web/20200523143011if_/https://twitter.com/michaeljburry http://web.archive.org/web/20200523143011if_/https://twitter... [3] http://web.archive.org/web/20200410021906if_/https://twitter.com/michaeljburry http://web.archive.org/web/20200410021906if_/https://twitter...
- xkjkls 6y ago
  People have been predicting the fall of Tesla for awhile. It's valuation is absurd by any possible metric or analysis.
- perl4ever 6y ago
  If you believe in Tesla enough to put everything you can spare into the stock, then bears are only helping you by increasing the amount of time you have to buy in. If you don't believe in Tesla, then why worry about other people who don't?
WhoCaresLies 6y ago
USD will collapse, and with it all the big tech bubbles
ncmncm 6y ago
Somebody needs to invent a financial instrument that enables betting on a collapse, without it exploding and bankrupting you if you get the timing wrong. Instead of collecting a payment upfront, and paying back a potentially unlimited amount (or zero) as we do with the current instrument, you should pay in any amount you choose, and the higher the stock goes before it collapses, the more you get back when it does (maybe by the square root of the difference), though the value falls off slowly over time. If it doesn't burst, you get nothing. If it bursts too soon, you get back only what you paid in. That said, I would not bet against SpaceX/Starlink.
- perl4ever 6y ago
  >Somebody needs to invent a financial instrument that enables betting on a collapse, without it exploding and bankrupting you if you get the timing wrong. You mean...like a https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Put_option https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Put_option?
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]

48 points by mgh2 6y ago

aurizon 6y ago

The path to the current share price is littered with the bodies of past shorts....

totalZero 6y ago
And yet, the fact that past speculators blew out their shorts has no bearing on whether the stock is presently rich.
- aurizon 6y ago
  It is hard to say how well Tesla will complete their giga factories and bring them into production. The Chinese one was a Tour de Force, if Texas and Germany get completed and into production in a similar way to defeat the gathering forces of the IC car industries electrification efforts then the share price will tend to flatline as Tesla and reality meet. If the IC car makers create a few years of crappy products(as is likely) their stumbles(which Tesla has already put behind it, I hope), then it may even go higher and the short-fry will become epic...
- jfengel 6y ago
  It has a bearing on whether future speculators will be able to remain solvent longer than the market can remain irrational.
  - totalZero 6y ago
    The outcome of a past coin toss tells us nothing about the outcome of a subsequent toss.
gremlinsinc 6y ago
Shorts cost money in interest etc, wouldn't it be better to hedge your bets, and just invest in the competitors evenly adjusting for news stories and maybe some sentiment analysis? If just one or two hit the electric bandwagon hard and start eating into TSLA's lead, then you hit pay dirt. Less payout, but less risk as well.
- aurizon 6y ago
  The change to EVs will proceed far faster than Tesla can keep up. Even the new EVs by the trsditional IC car makers will ramp slowly as the inevitable stumbles cause recalls and production delays. People are now witnessing the huge economies in EV, both in terms of far lower electric power costs coupled with the far lower mechanical repair costs due to the ability of an electric motor to last millions of miles compared to the thousands of threshing/wearing parts in an IC machine. The high first cost has been a barrier. I can see no reason that a large car, with a well streamlined body, and only 150-200 miles range as well as a far smaller motor than Tesla can not fill the low end chevy niche. This will save on the first cost of the battery. Many people can operate within that range for days and new houses will all have chargers, same with new condos. Many deliverers can use a small cube van that only goes 150 miles on a charge. With flat floors, they can easily make 2-3 versions with extra battery space under the floor as ordered. There will be an epic expansion of EVs over the next 10 years, and all makers will expand into that space. Short selling is a form of informed gambling/guessing...

mgh2 6y ago

Yeah, it will be interesting to see how he gets vilified as the "anti-Cathy Woods" (if) the trend reverses. Unpopular views are always attacked/ridiculed, so keep this in check.

prostoalex 6y ago

A prediction without a time horizon is just a feeling.

david927 6y ago
That's a bit unfair. If there's a time window then people will short, which will then force a short squeeze and instead of collapsing it will balloon more. The share price is already reflecting that people thought it would have collapsed last year.
- gremlinsinc 6y ago
  I'm not an investor, I'm out of work, wish I had money to gamble at the moment, but something tells me the smarter move would be creating some sentiment algorithm that invests like $500 every time a positive/electric car article comes out in a competitor. Say Toyota releases new electric car, invest $500 immediately in Toyota, Nissan, do the same, etc... Because when the tide turns all that money will go into whichever competitors are still standing and have the best e-car portfolios. Best to diversify. If you could time it right, sure shortsell, but that's a HUGE risk, this one not so much...again I'm NOT a financial guru, my negative bank account could prove that, but it's just a hunch I have, a similar one I had in 2013 about bitcoin and kick myself daily for every day.
andrewmcwatters 6y ago
What feeling? The market cap to asset ratio for Tesla is nearly 25.
pfortuny 6y ago
Actually, this kind of prediction is just a fact by the laws of probability...
pdog 6y ago
Generally speaking, you don't initiate a short position with longer than a two- to three-year time horizon. The cost of borrowing the shares, plus the opportunity cost of holding cash for margin maintenance requirements, is too prohibitive.

java-man 6y ago

It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future. [0] https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/10/20/no-predict/ https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/10/20/no-predict/

totalZero 6y ago

The biggest catalyst on the horizon for TSLA is actually the mainstream buy-in of major automakers into EVs. There are two reasons why this is actually bad for TSLA: 1. Tesla Motors makes money on regulatory credits that conventional automakers must purchase in order to offset their ICE vehicle production. That's actually Tesla's only source of profit. Unfortunately for Tesla Motors, those regulatory credits aren't going to be in such high demand in a world where major automakers each produce hundreds of thousands of electric vehicles. 2. Tesla Motors doesn't currently compete on things like build quality and fit/finish, because the major factor determining whether you want to buy a Tesla is whether you want to buy an electric car. However, the time will come when you can get a mainstream electric car with the interior of an Audi, or the reliability of a Toyota, or the utility of a Ford truck. That competitive environment would be a wind shift for Tesla's business, not to mention the amount of pressure that other automakers will put on Tesla's autonomous driving features in court and with regulators.

worker767424 6y ago
> regulatory credits Why is it that all of Musk's companies rely on government support in some significant way?
- xyzzyz 6y ago
  > government support I wouldn’t exactly call tax credits “government support”. They are, no doubt, very beneficial to Tesla, and other recipients of these tax credits. They aren’t support though: it’s the rest of the companies that are more burdened by the taxes.
- sawjet 6y ago
  the government wanted to buy something and they have the means to sell it to them. How is that reliance on government support?
- akmiller 6y ago
  I suggest you don't look at the oil companies and traditional auto manufacturers if you think this is just an Elon Musk thing!

hourislate 6y ago

It's frightening, at the current rate Tesla will soon be worth more than every auto manufacturer in the world put together. Tesla market cap as of January 07, 2021 is $696.81B. It's well over 700B today. Market Cap as of Jan 7, 2021 Toyota is $214.45B. General Motors is $59.63B. Ford Motor is $35.17B. Fiat Chrysler Automobiles is $36.13B. VW is 89.23B. Porsche is 21B. Audi is 83B. Nissan is 20B. Honda 49B.

tutfbhuf 6y ago
> at the current rate Tesla will soon be worth more than every... company on earth put together. Just a few more x10 away.
- camjohnson26 6y ago
  They’re already bigger than the entire stock market of several countries.
  - mywittyname 6y ago
    There are many very small countries and few large ones.
worker767424 6y ago
I'm a Tesla bear, but I know better than to bet against it. Arguably, Tesla's implied success is priced into to these other car companies. A lot of these companies are behind on electric cars, Toyota in particular.
- camjohnson26 6y ago
  Tesla’s product is the stock, pure and simple. Everything they do from rushing the model Y, causing its lead engineer to leave the company, to battery day, autonomy day, $420 funding secured, the solar city merger, the semi, roadster, FSD, all of these exist to support the stock price and nothing else.

11thEarlOfMar 6y ago

At the same P/E that Apple currently holds, and assuming a 15% net margin for Tesla, Elon needs to sell 5x the cars he sold in 2020 to yield today's price. Current auto capacity is 2x units sold in 2020 (Fremont + Shanghai). By the end of 2021, will be 3x (+Berlin). By the end of 2022, should be 4-5x with Texas and expansions at the earlier factories. Tesla will be producing the Cyber Truck, Semi tractor and updated Roadster, though the unit leader should be Model Y(?). Historic sales growth is somewhat behind capacity growth. 2017 ended at about $12B. 2020 is tracking to maybe $32B. That's around 40% annual sales growth. Let's call 2.5 million cars $125B in sales. At 40%, Tesla needs around 4 years to get to the $125B level. Essentially, the back of my envelope says long buyers today will need to hold for 4 years to see a profit based on some semblance of fundamentals. Stock prices for high-growth companies can be fluffy for a long time. I absolutely agree that current levels are in the realm of absurdly ridiculous, but as long as the underlying economy doesn't crater, the exuberants can be irrational for quite a long time. Can they hold out for 4 years?

xyzzyz 6y ago
Why would you compare with Apple, though, instead of other auto companies?
- DamnYuppie 6y ago
  I think for many investors the large appeal of Tesla is in the batteries and infrastructure put in place for charge stations.
  - xyzzyz 6y ago
    If it's about batteries, why isn't then Panasonic stock booming? Panasonic is the one that's actually supplying the technology and building the Tesla's battery factories. However, Panasonic's market cap is less than 5% of Tesla's, and batteries are not even its main business. It seems that the investors value Panasonic's battery technology and expertise at something like 1% of Tesla's market cap. I'm not sure what exactly you mean by "infrastructure put in place", but I can't imagine running charge stations to be hugely profitable business: gas stations most certainly aren't. They might still be pretty good business, but they clearly are not so good to account for hundreds of billions in valuation.

sleepysysadmin 6y ago

Typical PE ratio for any stock is on average around 17. Just before the financial crisis the market average was around 25. Before the dotcom bust it was 25-30. TSLA is at 1,671 LOL!!! The market right now is around 40. Obviously technically we are in a recession but the stock market is going up. So where's the crash? What are your typical measures that we have a massive market crash coming? If people believe this they will move their money to something that shouldnt crash or at least are isolated. Amazon is sky high as well. Bitcoin is at $40,000. Ethereum is way up as well. Gold is way up. Bond market is way down(implying people are buying bonds in droves) Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, France, Switzerland are all negative interest rates. The thing about the summer and covid lockdowns. People got out to spend money in the summer due to lockdown being over. We are now back to lockdown. Which means earnings calls are going to be bad. Late spring we will be seeing the crash. People are moving their money now to safer places. Tesla, Amazon, Gold, Bitcoin, Bonds is how they are doing it. When the crash comes, it will likely not be Tesla.

dmode 6y ago
There will be no crash as we have demonstrated that you can always print money
- sleepysysadmin 6y ago
  >There will be no crash as we have demonstrated that you can always print money One of the best metrics to see this: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/central-bank-balance-sheet https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/central-bank-bala... Basically in a fiat currency the very last place for debt to go. You can clearly see when the financial crisis happened and how the USA never really recovered from it. Then you can see when the covid recession hit. https://tradingeconomics.com/venezuela/central-bank-balance-sheet https://tradingeconomics.com/venezuela/central-bank-balance-... There's only 2 ways to see where this goes. It means bankruptcy OR major inflation. Biden government will decide which they choose.
marvin 6y ago
You can get an arbitrarily high P/E ratio if you're running a growth company that aggressively reinvests. It's a meaningless metric in this context. Look at gross margin and price to revenue instead. Tesla is still richly priced by these, but within the realm of plausibility if you make the right assumptions.

subsubzero 6y ago

I'm mixed on tesla. I bought in when the stock was at ~$50 in 2013 and sold after it jumped to $175. I bought into the company as I was seeing model S's everywhere I looked and realized it was a company that was growing rapidly. Fast forward a few years I owned a house that has solarcity(owned by tesla now) panels on the roof, the roof needs to be replaced and dealing with solarcity was probably one of the worst experiences I have ever dealt with in my life. After that experience I wrote off Tesla as a really badly run company and have since never owned their stock. I think alot of the growth is FOMO and extreme hype around the cult of Elon Musk. I like that Musk takes chances and goes for moonshots, we need more of that in todays society. That being said the stock is in stupid territory and I'll be taking a short position myself(I think even Elon thinks its overvalued).

systemtrigger 6y ago

Burry has been predicting the fall of TSLA for months. On Sep 22 he compared its market cap / total revenue (17.84) and -$69M EBIT to the other top 32 global auto makers (0.35 and $100B EBIT).[1] Even back then the market cap / EBIT of TSLA (-6,353) looked crazy compared to that of the global auto industry w/o TSLA (8.08). Then Tesla released its 3rd quarter earnings (which moderately surpassed Wall Street's expectations) and the stock has since risen dramatically. Burry's argument that TSLA is overvalued appears cogent based on Sep 22 data and more so today. Burry deleted hundreds of his tweets from 2020.[2] He should stick to picking stocks. His #FauciFraud nonsense was irresponsible.[3] [1] http://web.archive.org/web/20200924024110/https://twitter.com/michaeljburry/ http://web.archive.org/web/20200924024110/https://twitter.co... [2] http://web.archive.org/web/20200523143011if_/https://twitter.com/michaeljburry http://web.archive.org/web/20200523143011if_/https://twitter... [3] http://web.archive.org/web/20200410021906if_/https://twitter.com/michaeljburry http://web.archive.org/web/20200410021906if_/https://twitter...

xkjkls 6y ago
People have been predicting the fall of Tesla for awhile. It's valuation is absurd by any possible metric or analysis.
perl4ever 6y ago
If you believe in Tesla enough to put everything you can spare into the stock, then bears are only helping you by increasing the amount of time you have to buy in. If you don't believe in Tesla, then why worry about other people who don't?

WhoCaresLies 6y ago

USD will collapse, and with it all the big tech bubbles

ncmncm 6y ago

Somebody needs to invent a financial instrument that enables betting on a collapse, without it exploding and bankrupting you if you get the timing wrong. Instead of collecting a payment upfront, and paying back a potentially unlimited amount (or zero) as we do with the current instrument, you should pay in any amount you choose, and the higher the stock goes before it collapses, the more you get back when it does (maybe by the square root of the difference), though the value falls off slowly over time. If it doesn't burst, you get nothing. If it bursts too soon, you get back only what you paid in. That said, I would not bet against SpaceX/Starlink.

perl4ever 6y ago
>Somebody needs to invent a financial instrument that enables betting on a collapse, without it exploding and bankrupting you if you get the timing wrong. You mean...like a https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Put_option https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Put_option?

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]