9 ms·

I agree that a Tether reckoning is coming, but point #10 of that thread is the most important: it could be weeks, months or _years_ before it's fully corrected,

by chrisa 6y ago

I agree that a Tether reckoning is coming, but point #10 of that thread is the most important: it could be weeks, months or _years_ before it's fully corrected, so be super super super careful about using Tether as a reason to short Bitcoin... "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"

qeternity 6y ago
It's even worse than that. Shorting TSLA is dangerous because of the above. But it's mitigated by people purchasing shares with real fiat. They have a natural incentive to not be absurd: whether or not $800/share is absurd is a matter of opinion...but everyone would agree that $1m/share is absurd. Tether has no such limitation. All the exchanges are complicit in this, wash trading is rampant, and there's an de facto central bank run by actual criminals. There is absolutely zero reason why iFinex can't take bitcoin to $100k or $1m or whatever they like. They only have opportunity costs. The only thing keeping them in check right now is the appearance of legitimacy. If they were to overdo it, people might actually sell, which is not what they want. So until their legitimacy is tested (Jan 15) they will probably responsibly grind this higher. But on the last day, I expect billions and billions of USDT issuance so that they can run stops on every short in the market, collecting their last few shekels before the music stops and they vanish to an island somewhere.
- chrisa 6y ago
  Do you know if the public will actually find out any info on Jan 15th, or will that all be private, sealed documents? (I'm a bit lost at how that process is going to work)
  - qeternity 6y ago
    IANAL and don't have any real understanding of this process.
- graeme 6y ago
  Wait what’s the January 15th date?
  - raesene9 6y ago
    Jan 15 is the next court date where apparently iFinex will have provided all the required documents to the NYAG. If the NYAG doesn't like what's in there I guess it may go badly. The courts document list is https://iapps.courts.state.ny.us/nyscef/DocumentList?docketId=npvulMdOYzFDYIAomW_PLUS_elw==&PageNum=2&narrow= https://iapps.courts.state.ny.us/nyscef/DocumentList?docketI... If you look at the latest one, it mentions the 15th.
  - michaelchisari 6y ago
    Bitfinex and Tether have till the 15th of January to submit documents to the New York state attorney general about their financial relationship. The shortfall of $850m was allegedly printed by Tether and given to Bitfinex to cover up the losses Crypto Capital created. It is speculated Bitfinex and Tether can't submit any documents without revealing their cover-up. This will result in the conclusion that Tether isn't backed 1:1 by USD by a lot of investors and will results in more investigation by the attorney general. Tether is unaudited at the moment, meaning no one checked the bankroll of Tether if there really is $23b USD there. https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/ksdfne/why_tether_might_tank_the_crypto_market_on_jan/ https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/ksdfne/why_...
    - ahelwer 6y ago
      The thing is $850m isn't actually that much money. The big exchanges made on the order of several billion dollars profit during the last bubble; presumably they are also making that much in this one.
      - michaelchisari 6y ago
        It's not about the $850m per se, it's about the deep suspicion that Tether does not have anywhere near the $23 billion in reserves they claim to.
- dgellow 6y ago
  If they provide documents January 15th, I would expect at least a few weeks before we get some information. That will be interesting to follow.
dandanua 6y ago
Tether has printed almost double of its amount just BEFORE Bitcoin price jump. It's the biggest pump and dump scheme ever, made by organized crypto-mafia. I doubt this will continue for long.

by chrisa 6y ago

qeternity 6y ago

It's even worse than that. Shorting TSLA is dangerous because of the above. But it's mitigated by people purchasing shares with real fiat. They have a natural incentive to not be absurd: whether or not $800/share is absurd is a matter of opinion...but everyone would agree that $1m/share is absurd. Tether has no such limitation. All the exchanges are complicit in this, wash trading is rampant, and there's an de facto central bank run by actual criminals. There is absolutely zero reason why iFinex can't take bitcoin to $100k or $1m or whatever they like. They only have opportunity costs. The only thing keeping them in check right now is the appearance of legitimacy. If they were to overdo it, people might actually sell, which is not what they want. So until their legitimacy is tested (Jan 15) they will probably responsibly grind this higher. But on the last day, I expect billions and billions of USDT issuance so that they can run stops on every short in the market, collecting their last few shekels before the music stops and they vanish to an island somewhere.

chrisa 6y ago
Do you know if the public will actually find out any info on Jan 15th, or will that all be private, sealed documents? (I'm a bit lost at how that process is going to work)
- qeternity 6y ago
  IANAL and don't have any real understanding of this process.
graeme 6y ago
Wait what’s the January 15th date?
- raesene9 6y ago
  Jan 15 is the next court date where apparently iFinex will have provided all the required documents to the NYAG. If the NYAG doesn't like what's in there I guess it may go badly. The courts document list is https://iapps.courts.state.ny.us/nyscef/DocumentList?docketId=npvulMdOYzFDYIAomW_PLUS_elw==&PageNum=2&narrow= https://iapps.courts.state.ny.us/nyscef/DocumentList?docketI... If you look at the latest one, it mentions the 15th.
- michaelchisari 6y ago
  Bitfinex and Tether have till the 15th of January to submit documents to the New York state attorney general about their financial relationship. The shortfall of $850m was allegedly printed by Tether and given to Bitfinex to cover up the losses Crypto Capital created. It is speculated Bitfinex and Tether can't submit any documents without revealing their cover-up. This will result in the conclusion that Tether isn't backed 1:1 by USD by a lot of investors and will results in more investigation by the attorney general. Tether is unaudited at the moment, meaning no one checked the bankroll of Tether if there really is $23b USD there. https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/ksdfne/why_tether_might_tank_the_crypto_market_on_jan/ https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/ksdfne/why_...
  - ahelwer 6y ago
    The thing is $850m isn't actually that much money. The big exchanges made on the order of several billion dollars profit during the last bubble; presumably they are also making that much in this one.
    - michaelchisari 6y ago
      It's not about the $850m per se, it's about the deep suspicion that Tether does not have anywhere near the $23 billion in reserves they claim to.
dgellow 6y ago
If they provide documents January 15th, I would expect at least a few weeks before we get some information. That will be interesting to follow.

dandanua 6y ago

Tether has printed almost double of its amount just BEFORE Bitcoin price jump. It's the biggest pump and dump scheme ever, made by organized crypto-mafia. I doubt this will continue for long.