4 ms·

While correlation is not causation, correlation is evidence for causation... and there's a lot of correlation in those graphs.

• tomwojcik 6y ago
  It literally is not.
  • wegs 6y ago
    Correction: Correlation is evidence for causation. It's weak evidence, and generally speaking, stronger correlation isn't more evidence. There's a gradual process to go from hypothesis to theory to fact, and to get there, you need several types of independent evidence. Correlational evidence is okay as one of those. A correct statement is that correlation is not proof of causation (no matter how strong). Types of evidence: * Correlation * Theoretical basis / strong hypothesis * Extrapolation * Interpolation * Small-scale well-controlled experiments (lab setting) * Large-scale less controlled experiments (real-world setting) * Anecdotes * ... and so on You want several of those before you start to believe anything, and some are stronger than others. Correlation isn't fundamentally weaker than most of those, though; all of those carry their own methodological issues. The number of times you can have a large-scale perfectly-controlled preregistered randomized control trial with no confounding effects is exceptionally rare (some medical trials, and a few other settings).
  • benibela 6y ago
    But it is There are several algorithms that calculate the causal structure from correlations: PC, GES, FGS, FCI They are proven to be asymptotically correct
• arvindamirtaa 6y ago
  >"...correlation is evidence for causation" Yeah...that's not how it works.
  • kilnr 6y ago
    I assume you've conflated evidence and proof?
  • arvindamirtaa 6y ago
    Causation may be evidence for correlation. But the reverse is simply not true.
• jwalton 6y ago
  Correlation is definitely not evidence for causation. Also, if you reverse the cause and effect, what analysis do you get? When BTC prices are in the rise, it’s because people are putting money into crypto currencies. When people are putting money into crypto, some of that money is probably going into tether, so there’s more demand for tether, so Bitfinex increases the supply. With this reasoning, we get exactly the same graph with a totally different meaning.
  • callamdelaney 6y ago
    > Correlation is definitely not evidence for causation. Try telling this to climate change activists