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Oh... I think I got it. 3217-2187 = 1030 anthropogenic in the atmosphere, and 55% will get reabsorbed, so that put us at the 2289 total that won't get reabsorbe
by tunesmith 6y ago
Oh... I think I got it. 3217-2187 = 1030 anthropogenic in the atmosphere, and 55% will get reabsorbed, so that put us at the 2289 total that won't get reabsorbed. And since we emit 37.1 per year (figure probably out of date), and 45% of that sticks around, we have about 36 years before we go past 2900 (at this rate). Although I'm not sure if that reabsorption is already figured in to the 37.1 figure.
- tunesmith 6y agoTo clarify... 2289 is the amount anthropogenically emitted, before reabsorption (whatever the correct term is). 1030 is the amount left behind after reabsorption. The (probably out of date) IPCC guideline is to stay under 2900 emitted, and the 37.1 is how much is emitted per year, so those numbers don't have to take absorption into account. Therefore, the difference is 611, or about 16.5 years from whenever that measurement was taken. So, roughly - 2036. The world needs to be carbon neutral by 2036, according to that math. (And those numbers are behind the science in more recent articles, which are implying overshoot and that 2 degrees is inevitable.)