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The model S was released almost 9 years ago. That should have been the wake up call to get things started on the technology side to the point where they would

by imron 6y ago

The model S was released almost 9 years ago. That should have been the wake up call to get things started on the technology side to the point where they would be ready to start ramping up production now. Ramping up much later than 5 years from now will probably be too late. > So is the idea that the rest if the industry will just evaporate and Tesla becomes the Xerox of cars? If they don’t adapt they will die out. P.S. I'm not saying Tesla's valuation is justified, just that existing car makers better hurry up or they'll be left behind.

BoorishBears 6y ago
I guess my point is more: the top reply was "Tesla will face problems if traditional car manufacturers don't do so and so" Tesla has dwarfed them by such a nonsensical amount that what the other manufacturers do doesn't even seem matter any more. As far as I can tell even if they do die out Tesla faces "problems" ever justifying this valuation I won't ever spend my money trying to short it, especially when blind faith in the ponzi scheme continuing has been so profitable, but one really has to wonder what will happen when in say 30 years, Tesla is the new Toyota and the current valuation still doesn't make sense, let alone what ever truly ridiculous valuation they'll have tacked on along the way... I feel like some machinery to stop this kind of thing from happening should exist though. Imagine that GM was considered "too big to fail" at one point and compare it to what Tesla has become, truly something.
- imron 6y ago
  > Tesla faces "problems" ever justifying this valuation On this we agree.
reitzensteinm 6y ago
It's possible car companies have dropped the ball, but I don't think we can outright declare it yet. VW's timing, I think, has actually been excellent. The ID3 is a good car for a good price they can sell profitably. The program commenced in the fallout of dieselgate roughly around the same time as the Model 3. If they went all in just a few years earlier, it would have been on something like the E-Golf, not fit to be a mainstream car, and it would have ruined the company. Now, if they had the R&D strength of Tesla, the E-Golf could have been as good as the ID.3. But Tesla is unique. Car companies that achieve volume production over the next couple of years probably won't suffer terribly for the delay - but it will be less ideal than VW. Car companies that haven't ramped volume production by some cutoff (say 2025) will die without question. It's too late today to start that program, so the fate is already sealed for anyone without an iron in the fire. And it wouldn't have made sense for any company to try to compete with the Model S/X without amortizing the R&D over mainstream cars, similar to Intel's high margin Xeon chips which probably wouldn't exist in a vacuum. Tesla doesn't break out the finances enough to clearly tell, but they very likely lost money on the Model S/X program as a whole, although maybe they've turned it around in recent years. And that's with Tesla's unique R&D advantage which may have reduced costs by as much as an order of magnitude. Even if you build that car, you have to sell it to Tesla fans, at best splitting a small market, and at worse being ignored because of Tesla's impressive mindshare. (I'm not writing this as a direct argument to what you're saying, I think we probably broadly agree)
- imron 6y ago
  > I think we probably broadly agree I think we do - like you said, anyone without an iron in the fire isn't going to make it, and VW at least have that going for them (likewise Porsche which VW own).

by imron 6y ago

BoorishBears 6y ago

I guess my point is more: the top reply was "Tesla will face problems if traditional car manufacturers don't do so and so" Tesla has dwarfed them by such a nonsensical amount that what the other manufacturers do doesn't even seem matter any more. As far as I can tell even if they do die out Tesla faces "problems" ever justifying this valuation I won't ever spend my money trying to short it, especially when blind faith in the ponzi scheme continuing has been so profitable, but one really has to wonder what will happen when in say 30 years, Tesla is the new Toyota and the current valuation still doesn't make sense, let alone what ever truly ridiculous valuation they'll have tacked on along the way... I feel like some machinery to stop this kind of thing from happening should exist though. Imagine that GM was considered "too big to fail" at one point and compare it to what Tesla has become, truly something.

imron 6y ago
> Tesla faces "problems" ever justifying this valuation On this we agree.

reitzensteinm 6y ago

It's possible car companies have dropped the ball, but I don't think we can outright declare it yet. VW's timing, I think, has actually been excellent. The ID3 is a good car for a good price they can sell profitably. The program commenced in the fallout of dieselgate roughly around the same time as the Model 3. If they went all in just a few years earlier, it would have been on something like the E-Golf, not fit to be a mainstream car, and it would have ruined the company. Now, if they had the R&D strength of Tesla, the E-Golf could have been as good as the ID.3. But Tesla is unique. Car companies that achieve volume production over the next couple of years probably won't suffer terribly for the delay - but it will be less ideal than VW. Car companies that haven't ramped volume production by some cutoff (say 2025) will die without question. It's too late today to start that program, so the fate is already sealed for anyone without an iron in the fire. And it wouldn't have made sense for any company to try to compete with the Model S/X without amortizing the R&D over mainstream cars, similar to Intel's high margin Xeon chips which probably wouldn't exist in a vacuum. Tesla doesn't break out the finances enough to clearly tell, but they very likely lost money on the Model S/X program as a whole, although maybe they've turned it around in recent years. And that's with Tesla's unique R&D advantage which may have reduced costs by as much as an order of magnitude. Even if you build that car, you have to sell it to Tesla fans, at best splitting a small market, and at worse being ignored because of Tesla's impressive mindshare. (I'm not writing this as a direct argument to what you're saying, I think we probably broadly agree)

imron 6y ago
> I think we probably broadly agree I think we do - like you said, anyone without an iron in the fire isn't going to make it, and VW at least have that going for them (likewise Porsche which VW own).