3 ms·

I think you are highly optimistic about this timescale. This perspecitive is highly US centric. For instance, a lot less people buy new cars in europe, not to

• natch 6y ago
  Not sure if you're talking about the timescale of obsolescence or the timescale of the value crashing. One could make the argument that ICE cars becoming obsolete is an event that has already happened, so let's set that aside. You're right that my view of this is US-centric, my bad for that. Value crashing is interesting. Cars have a fairly long lifespan so the transition to ownership of EVs is slow, I would agree with that if that's what you're saying. But the transition to crashing value does not have to be as slow. If the perceived value of an option is 2% better than another option, that does not equate to a 2% price difference. It equates to a much bigger price difference. Of course a lot of EVs are still crappy and the perceived value of ICE cars is still high due to rampant ignorance about charging options (in the US and Europe) or simple lack of charging options (in the developing world). But that can change very quickly as EVs and the infrastructure get better, and then even though the ownership transition is slow, people will be stuck owning ICE cars when they would prefer to own something 2% better, or 10% better, or 90% better.