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Tesla will face real problems once old school car manufacturers ramp up their EV production

by nixass 6y ago

Seanambers 6y ago
Some real in depth analysis there.
rio517 6y ago
Annalists have been saying this for years. I'm skeptical. Along many other reasons, there aren't enough batteries to go around.
- d1zzy 6y ago
  I don't know how the battery situation will play out but in Europe Tesla sales have already flattened (while other manufacturer EVs are picking up) which is not a good sign.
  - vardump 6y ago
    Perhaps Tesla's market share in Europe could have been better had they had actually cars to ship there? Just saying. Tesla had a record year and consistently high demand for Model 3 and Model Y.
diegocg 6y ago
It has already happened in Europe.
imron 6y ago
They are unwilling to do so in the timeframe needed to make a difference because they are too invested in their ICE vehicles. They'll start trying once the market has already shifted and by then it will mostly be too late.
- BoorishBears 6y ago
  What is the time frame needed? Once upon a time Tesla just needed to sell a lot of cars to justify their valuation. The time frame for that to happen was really not that long. Now Tesla just needs to sell all the cars to justify their valuation. Sell all of them and then some really. So is the idea that the rest if the industry will just evaporate and Tesla becomes the Xerox of cars? I remember price targets being based on having half the car market in a few decades back at $1000 pre-split
  - imron 6y ago
    The model S was released almost 9 years ago. That should have been the wake up call to get things started on the technology side to the point where they would be ready to start ramping up production now. Ramping up much later than 5 years from now will probably be too late. > So is the idea that the rest if the industry will just evaporate and Tesla becomes the Xerox of cars? If they don’t adapt they will die out. P.S. I'm not saying Tesla's valuation is justified, just that existing car makers better hurry up or they'll be left behind.
    - BoorishBears 6y ago
      I guess my point is more: the top reply was "Tesla will face problems if traditional car manufacturers don't do so and so" Tesla has dwarfed them by such a nonsensical amount that what the other manufacturers do doesn't even seem matter any more. As far as I can tell even if they do die out Tesla faces "problems" ever justifying this valuation I won't ever spend my money trying to short it, especially when blind faith in the ponzi scheme continuing has been so profitable, but one really has to wonder what will happen when in say 30 years, Tesla is the new Toyota and the current valuation still doesn't make sense, let alone what ever truly ridiculous valuation they'll have tacked on along the way... I feel like some machinery to stop this kind of thing from happening should exist though. Imagine that GM was considered "too big to fail" at one point and compare it to what Tesla has become, truly something.
      - 6y ago
vardump 6y ago
Such a deja vu. Once the big boys come. I think I've heard this being repeated ever since 2013. But hearing it for 8 years makes me believe somewhat less that most of these old school manufacturers will ever bother to do much. Except for Volkswagen, they seem to be taking EVs seriously. Other old car companies sure do talk a lot, but there's little action. They might have okish EVs, but no plans to truly mass manufacture them. Once they finally get to it, it'll be too late. We'll see. Tesla is a "big boy" itself now. They got capital to make things happen.
- tonfa 6y ago
  > They might have okish EVs, but no plans to truly mass manufacture them Isn't the renault zoe selling better than tesla cars in europe?
  - vardump 6y ago
    For now. But will Renault be able to scale manufacturing to match VW and Tesla? Just Tesla's Giga Berlin is going to push out 500k vehicles annually after the ramp up. And its max capacity is rumored to be 2000k/year, although that's probably at least 3-4 years away. Both VW and Tesla will move to cheaper vehicles over time.
- henrikschroder 6y ago
  > Other old car companies sure do talk a lot, but there's little action. https://cleantechnica.com/2020/12/29/record-electric-vehicle-sales-in-europe/ https://cleantechnica.com/2020/12/29/record-electric-vehicle... 85% of the electric cars sold in Europe Jan-Nov 2020 were not Tesla. Seems like the competition already caught up to them, despite the fanboys claiming it'll never happen. For 2021, Tesla has nothing new in the pipeline for the European market, while its competitors have quite a lot of models lined up, so I'm pretty sure Teslas marketshare will continue dropping. They'll sell more vehicles than 2020, sure, but only because the EV market as a whole is growing.
  - vardump 6y ago
    > For 2021, Tesla has nothing new in the pipeline for the European market... You mean other than soon to be introduced in Europe Model Y and 2021 Model 3? Expect price drops as well once the manufacturing is done locally. That's exactly what happened in China and now Tesla has 6 month order queue there.
KorematsuFred 6y ago
Nopes. The big boys are more like obese octogenarians on a wheelchair. By the time they actually arrive on the station, the train would have reached other side of the globe. The greatest weakness of these large companies is the rent seekers called dealerships. Like he drug dealers these absolutely bottom scrappers are the biggest hurdle for innovation in this space. So I will not raise my hopes.

Tesla will face real problems once old school car manufacturers ramp up their EV production

by nixass 6y ago

Tesla will face real problems once old school car manufacturers ramp up their EV production

Seanambers 6y ago

Some real in depth analysis there.

rio517 6y ago

Annalists have been saying this for years. I'm skeptical. Along many other reasons, there aren't enough batteries to go around.

d1zzy 6y ago
I don't know how the battery situation will play out but in Europe Tesla sales have already flattened (while other manufacturer EVs are picking up) which is not a good sign.
- vardump 6y ago
  Perhaps Tesla's market share in Europe could have been better had they had actually cars to ship there? Just saying. Tesla had a record year and consistently high demand for Model 3 and Model Y.

diegocg 6y ago

It has already happened in Europe.

imron 6y ago

They are unwilling to do so in the timeframe needed to make a difference because they are too invested in their ICE vehicles. They'll start trying once the market has already shifted and by then it will mostly be too late.

BoorishBears 6y ago
What is the time frame needed? Once upon a time Tesla just needed to sell a lot of cars to justify their valuation. The time frame for that to happen was really not that long. Now Tesla just needs to sell all the cars to justify their valuation. Sell all of them and then some really. So is the idea that the rest if the industry will just evaporate and Tesla becomes the Xerox of cars? I remember price targets being based on having half the car market in a few decades back at $1000 pre-split
- imron 6y ago
  The model S was released almost 9 years ago. That should have been the wake up call to get things started on the technology side to the point where they would be ready to start ramping up production now. Ramping up much later than 5 years from now will probably be too late. > So is the idea that the rest if the industry will just evaporate and Tesla becomes the Xerox of cars? If they don’t adapt they will die out. P.S. I'm not saying Tesla's valuation is justified, just that existing car makers better hurry up or they'll be left behind.
  - BoorishBears 6y ago
    I guess my point is more: the top reply was "Tesla will face problems if traditional car manufacturers don't do so and so" Tesla has dwarfed them by such a nonsensical amount that what the other manufacturers do doesn't even seem matter any more. As far as I can tell even if they do die out Tesla faces "problems" ever justifying this valuation I won't ever spend my money trying to short it, especially when blind faith in the ponzi scheme continuing has been so profitable, but one really has to wonder what will happen when in say 30 years, Tesla is the new Toyota and the current valuation still doesn't make sense, let alone what ever truly ridiculous valuation they'll have tacked on along the way... I feel like some machinery to stop this kind of thing from happening should exist though. Imagine that GM was considered "too big to fail" at one point and compare it to what Tesla has become, truly something.
    - 6y ago

vardump 6y ago

Such a deja vu. Once the big boys come. I think I've heard this being repeated ever since 2013. But hearing it for 8 years makes me believe somewhat less that most of these old school manufacturers will ever bother to do much. Except for Volkswagen, they seem to be taking EVs seriously. Other old car companies sure do talk a lot, but there's little action. They might have okish EVs, but no plans to truly mass manufacture them. Once they finally get to it, it'll be too late. We'll see. Tesla is a "big boy" itself now. They got capital to make things happen.

tonfa 6y ago
> They might have okish EVs, but no plans to truly mass manufacture them Isn't the renault zoe selling better than tesla cars in europe?
- vardump 6y ago
  For now. But will Renault be able to scale manufacturing to match VW and Tesla? Just Tesla's Giga Berlin is going to push out 500k vehicles annually after the ramp up. And its max capacity is rumored to be 2000k/year, although that's probably at least 3-4 years away. Both VW and Tesla will move to cheaper vehicles over time.
henrikschroder 6y ago
> Other old car companies sure do talk a lot, but there's little action. https://cleantechnica.com/2020/12/29/record-electric-vehicle-sales-in-europe/ https://cleantechnica.com/2020/12/29/record-electric-vehicle... 85% of the electric cars sold in Europe Jan-Nov 2020 were not Tesla. Seems like the competition already caught up to them, despite the fanboys claiming it'll never happen. For 2021, Tesla has nothing new in the pipeline for the European market, while its competitors have quite a lot of models lined up, so I'm pretty sure Teslas marketshare will continue dropping. They'll sell more vehicles than 2020, sure, but only because the EV market as a whole is growing.
- vardump 6y ago
  > For 2021, Tesla has nothing new in the pipeline for the European market... You mean other than soon to be introduced in Europe Model Y and 2021 Model 3? Expect price drops as well once the manufacturing is done locally. That's exactly what happened in China and now Tesla has 6 month order queue there.

KorematsuFred 6y ago

Nopes. The big boys are more like obese octogenarians on a wheelchair. By the time they actually arrive on the station, the train would have reached other side of the globe. The greatest weakness of these large companies is the rent seekers called dealerships. Like he drug dealers these absolutely bottom scrappers are the biggest hurdle for innovation in this space. So I will not raise my hopes.