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Jumping from level 2 to 5 is going to be extremely difficult. I have no idea how we will ever accomplish that. Tesla is playing around a bit now, but this str

Jumping from level 2 to 5 is going to be extremely difficult. I have no idea how we will ever accomplish that. Tesla is playing around a bit now, but this strategy will only work up until the moment a Tesla kills someone while provably being operated in "FSD" mode.

dbcurtis 6y ago
I don’t think you can hit a consumer price point with a vehicle with sufficient sensors. A taxi, though, can amortize the cost of a richer sensor suite.
- rlt 6y ago
  Elon believes LiDAR is unnecessary and I’m inclined to believe him. After all, humans have exactly two “cameras”, while Teslas already have many more cameras, radar, and ultrasonic sensors.
  - rootusrootus 6y ago
    To be fair, though, human eyes are so superior to any existing camera technology that it is hard to compare them. And the amount of processing attached to those eyes is staggering. LIDAR may be strictly unnecessary in the end, but for the foreseeable future computers can use all the help they can get.
    - rlt 6y ago
      > human eyes are so superior to any existing camera technology that it is hard to compare them Not in every respect. Cameras can have a wider field of view, they can see wavelengths humans can’t, and of course you can have more than two, each looking in a different direction at the same time.
rlt 6y ago
If Tesla can prove riding in their autonomous cars is an order of magnitude safer than human operated cars then it would be unethical to not allow them to switch on full autonomy.
- legolas2412 6y ago
  It would be unethical that Tesla's magical actually full self-driving is only available as a autonomous system, not as driver assistance. You should not compare a modelS driven in favorable weather on favorable roads with younger people to the average car on the average road. You should also not compare a autonomous system with a system with no comparable driver assistance. Tesla will convince me of driverless cars when a modelS driverless outperforms a modelS with a driver using emergency braking and lane keeping assist.
- rootusrootus 6y ago
  That's a big if. And as discussed recently on HN, it can't just be safer than average human drivers, it has to be safer than good human drivers. That is a pretty tall order.
  - rlt 6y ago
    Are “good” human drivers an order of magnitude better than “average” human drivers? Because that’s where I put my bar: marginally better than “good”, an order of magnitude better than “average”.
Animats 6y ago
3 is attainable. Waymo, and probably Cruise, are at 3.
- alkonaut 6y ago
  The problem with 3 and 4 isn’t that it’s hard but that it may not be a good idea at all. It’s a system you should monitor at all times but kind of works when you don’t? No security conscious manufacturer should make those.

dbcurtis 6y ago

I don’t think you can hit a consumer price point with a vehicle with sufficient sensors. A taxi, though, can amortize the cost of a richer sensor suite.

rlt 6y ago
Elon believes LiDAR is unnecessary and I’m inclined to believe him. After all, humans have exactly two “cameras”, while Teslas already have many more cameras, radar, and ultrasonic sensors.
- rootusrootus 6y ago
  To be fair, though, human eyes are so superior to any existing camera technology that it is hard to compare them. And the amount of processing attached to those eyes is staggering. LIDAR may be strictly unnecessary in the end, but for the foreseeable future computers can use all the help they can get.
  - rlt 6y ago
    > human eyes are so superior to any existing camera technology that it is hard to compare them Not in every respect. Cameras can have a wider field of view, they can see wavelengths humans can’t, and of course you can have more than two, each looking in a different direction at the same time.

rlt 6y ago

If Tesla can prove riding in their autonomous cars is an order of magnitude safer than human operated cars then it would be unethical to not allow them to switch on full autonomy.

legolas2412 6y ago
It would be unethical that Tesla's magical actually full self-driving is only available as a autonomous system, not as driver assistance. You should not compare a modelS driven in favorable weather on favorable roads with younger people to the average car on the average road. You should also not compare a autonomous system with a system with no comparable driver assistance. Tesla will convince me of driverless cars when a modelS driverless outperforms a modelS with a driver using emergency braking and lane keeping assist.
rootusrootus 6y ago
That's a big if. And as discussed recently on HN, it can't just be safer than average human drivers, it has to be safer than good human drivers. That is a pretty tall order.
- rlt 6y ago
  Are “good” human drivers an order of magnitude better than “average” human drivers? Because that’s where I put my bar: marginally better than “good”, an order of magnitude better than “average”.

Animats 6y ago

3 is attainable. Waymo, and probably Cruise, are at 3.

alkonaut 6y ago
The problem with 3 and 4 isn’t that it’s hard but that it may not be a good idea at all. It’s a system you should monitor at all times but kind of works when you don’t? No security conscious manufacturer should make those.