4 ms·

an entire unique asset class that is worth one Tesla. seems low, no?

by tempsy 6y ago

iso8859-1 6y ago
Doesn't make any sense to compare X satoshis to Y Teslas and imply some natural exchange rate between the two.
arcticbull 6y ago
You're comparing a speculative mania in fictional crime-bucks to a speculative mania in a car company worth more than Facebook while simultaneously selling just 4% as many cars as Toyota. Tesla's price to earnings ratio is 1500 meaning it would take until the year 3521 for it to earn back its market cap. The fact you're even making this assessment tells me this isn't going to end well for anyone. Heed my warning: The bubble pops when the last bear dies.
- tehlike 6y ago
  As the money printing goes, assets will inflate and inflation will catch up, and it will be somewhat balanced....
  - arcticbull 6y ago
    I'd love a citation on that if you have one, I have seen no evidence the two are connected. The money was printed to counter deflationary pressure. This succeeded, and the rate of inflation is tracking at 2% per expectations.
    - tempsy 6y ago
      Replace Tesla with Facebook, or a fraction of one large tech company, or less than the $900B stimulus bill that was just passed. My point was only that it’s a currently a small fraction of the overall US equity market, and if it becomes increasingly widely accepted as a reserve currency comparable to the dollar or an inflation protected asset like gold then there’s no reason why it shouldn’t be worth trillions.
      - arcticbull 6y ago
        There's not a single reason why it should be worth anything at all.
        tempsy 6y ago
        the market doesn’t conform to your personal biases
        arcticbull 6y ago
        What makes you think the amount someone is willing to pay for something at any given moment is a proxy for its intrinsic value? Enron traded sky high until it didn't. Tulip bulbs traded sky high until they didn't. That people are willing to pay for it doesn't mean it should be worth anything. Worth is not price. And a high price certainly doesn't mean something is good for the world. If I offered $1,000,000 for each silverback gorilla pelt you procure, (a) is that a proxy for its worth and (b) is that good for the world? The market tends to conform to my personal biases, my personal investing account just crossed 14X what it was on 3/20. I tend to short irrationality but in this case I have no interest in shooting dice in a rigged casino.
        tempsy 6y ago
        ok.
        tehlike 6y ago
        Sounds like someone either bought tesla or went into options. Feel free to 14x your account 3 times in a row.
- cactus2093 6y ago
  You could also call gold "speculative mania in shiny trinkets with little utility", but that one has lasted thousands of years so far. Describing something in colorful language doesn't make it a strong argument. Being so sure that BTC is a bubble is just as naive as being completely sure it's going up to a million dollars per coin. It's just speculation either way, and there is no fundamental law of nature (or even principle of economics) preventing either outcome.
  - arcticbull 6y ago
    > Being so sure that BTC is a bubble is just as naive as being completely sure it's going up to a million dollars per coin. It's just speculation either way, and there is no fundamental law of nature (or even principle of economics) preventing either outcome. Which is why I'm not playing. And why I don't have any gold.
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
- tlrobinson 6y ago
  > meaning it would take until the year 3521 for it to earn back its market cap There are much better ways to make this argument than extrapolating based on current earnings forever. e.x. “Tesla would have to capture X% of worldwide automobile sales AND capture Y% of worldwide taxi/ridesharing market share AND etc”
  - arcticbull 6y ago
    I'm aware of the bull case. However in general, pie-in-the-sky dreams aren't factored into asset prices like that. For instance, Apple has a market cap of 2.2T a P/E of 40. Tesla has a market cap of 0.8T and a P/E of 1602. Apple could get into all those markets, so should we value it at, uh, let me run the numbers here... 88 trillion dollars?
    - tlrobinson 6y ago
      I’m not trying to argue Tesla isn’t overvalued, I just think simply pointing to the P/E isn’t a good way to make that argument.
icefrakker 6y ago
LOL that thought is like the ultimate sophist version of STONKS

an entire unique asset class that is worth one Tesla. seems low, no?

by tempsy 6y ago

an entire unique asset class that is worth one Tesla. seems low, no?

iso8859-1 6y ago

Doesn't make any sense to compare X satoshis to Y Teslas and imply some natural exchange rate between the two.

arcticbull 6y ago

You're comparing a speculative mania in fictional crime-bucks to a speculative mania in a car company worth more than Facebook while simultaneously selling just 4% as many cars as Toyota. Tesla's price to earnings ratio is 1500 meaning it would take until the year 3521 for it to earn back its market cap. The fact you're even making this assessment tells me this isn't going to end well for anyone. Heed my warning: The bubble pops when the last bear dies.

tehlike 6y ago
As the money printing goes, assets will inflate and inflation will catch up, and it will be somewhat balanced....
- arcticbull 6y ago
  I'd love a citation on that if you have one, I have seen no evidence the two are connected. The money was printed to counter deflationary pressure. This succeeded, and the rate of inflation is tracking at 2% per expectations.
  - tempsy 6y ago
    Replace Tesla with Facebook, or a fraction of one large tech company, or less than the $900B stimulus bill that was just passed. My point was only that it’s a currently a small fraction of the overall US equity market, and if it becomes increasingly widely accepted as a reserve currency comparable to the dollar or an inflation protected asset like gold then there’s no reason why it shouldn’t be worth trillions.
    - arcticbull 6y ago
      There's not a single reason why it should be worth anything at all.
      - tempsy 6y ago
        the market doesn’t conform to your personal biases
        arcticbull 6y ago
        What makes you think the amount someone is willing to pay for something at any given moment is a proxy for its intrinsic value? Enron traded sky high until it didn't. Tulip bulbs traded sky high until they didn't. That people are willing to pay for it doesn't mean it should be worth anything. Worth is not price. And a high price certainly doesn't mean something is good for the world. If I offered $1,000,000 for each silverback gorilla pelt you procure, (a) is that a proxy for its worth and (b) is that good for the world? The market tends to conform to my personal biases, my personal investing account just crossed 14X what it was on 3/20. I tend to short irrationality but in this case I have no interest in shooting dice in a rigged casino.
        tempsy 6y ago
        ok.
        tehlike 6y ago
        Sounds like someone either bought tesla or went into options. Feel free to 14x your account 3 times in a row.
cactus2093 6y ago
You could also call gold "speculative mania in shiny trinkets with little utility", but that one has lasted thousands of years so far. Describing something in colorful language doesn't make it a strong argument. Being so sure that BTC is a bubble is just as naive as being completely sure it's going up to a million dollars per coin. It's just speculation either way, and there is no fundamental law of nature (or even principle of economics) preventing either outcome.
- arcticbull 6y ago
  > Being so sure that BTC is a bubble is just as naive as being completely sure it's going up to a million dollars per coin. It's just speculation either way, and there is no fundamental law of nature (or even principle of economics) preventing either outcome. Which is why I'm not playing. And why I don't have any gold.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
tlrobinson 6y ago
> meaning it would take until the year 3521 for it to earn back its market cap There are much better ways to make this argument than extrapolating based on current earnings forever. e.x. “Tesla would have to capture X% of worldwide automobile sales AND capture Y% of worldwide taxi/ridesharing market share AND etc”
- arcticbull 6y ago
  I'm aware of the bull case. However in general, pie-in-the-sky dreams aren't factored into asset prices like that. For instance, Apple has a market cap of 2.2T a P/E of 40. Tesla has a market cap of 0.8T and a P/E of 1602. Apple could get into all those markets, so should we value it at, uh, let me run the numbers here... 88 trillion dollars?
  - tlrobinson 6y ago
    I’m not trying to argue Tesla isn’t overvalued, I just think simply pointing to the P/E isn’t a good way to make that argument.

icefrakker 6y ago

LOL that thought is like the ultimate sophist version of STONKS