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Chances are they're forgetting that Trump actively discouraged his supporters from voting by mail, which along with the fact that most states counted mail-in vo

Chances are they're forgetting that Trump actively discouraged his supporters from voting by mail, which along with the fact that most states counted mail-in votes last meant that most Trump votes were counted early while most Biden votes were counted late. This meant that the intermediate results early on pointed to Trump and then shifted to Biden. This effect was predicted in the very beginning of the pandemic! As soon as we knew mail-in voting would many up such a large fraction of votes, this was obvious, and many (including me) anticipated that Trump and others would make up propaganda about this, or even try to stop the vote counting early to stop the mail-in votes from getting counted.

Izkata 6y ago
The "red mirage" predictions were for over the course of the week as postmarked-pre-election ballots arrived late and got counted over the course of the week, not a mass-dump all at once. So no, there was no warning for this. And even with encouraging in-person voting, the dump was 99-100% Biden, that's the suspicious part. No way all Trump supporters voted in-person, even with the urging.
- Natanael_L 6y ago
  Maybe some predictions. Not all. Especially with the tampering work the postal service, extra delays in counting of mail-in votes were expected. Predicted. https://mobile.twitter.com/Natanael_L/status/1323187825735553029 https://mobile.twitter.com/Natanael_L/status/132318782573555... https://mobile.twitter.com/Natanael_L/status/1322644616492077056 https://mobile.twitter.com/Natanael_L/status/132264461649207... https://mobile.twitter.com/Natanael_L/status/1312349029892870144 https://mobile.twitter.com/Natanael_L/status/131234902989287... Almost none of the districts were 100% Biden, with a few exceptions - districts which are historically democratic leaning, AND in which journalists literally could not find one single person claiming to have voted for Trump when they investigated these numbers. And I have not heard of any example of mail-in batches going 100% to Biden. There's statistics over the split in mail-in votes. There's like 2x more democratic mail-in votes than republican mail-in votes.
  - Natanael_L 6y ago
    Wasn't just me saying it. https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/usps-states-delayed-mail-in-ballots/2020/08/14/64bf3c3c-dcc7-11ea-8051-d5f887d73381_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/usps-states...
- ninkendo 6y ago
  > the dump was 99-100% Biden, that's the suspicious part Do you have any extraordinary evidence to back this extraordinary claim? I kept a spreadsheet of the votes in Michigan as they came in and I don't see any dumps that were 99-100% Biden. Also, the "Red Mirage" also was a big thing in states that weren't allowed by law to start counting the mail-in ballots until the day of the election (MI, PA were two of these states.) So they ended up prioritizing counting the in-person ballots on election day, and got to the backlog of mail ballots after the polls closed. This was all a very easily predictable, simple result of the election laws in the states, and it was predicted. None of this was surprising to anyone who paid attention prior to election day.
  - Izkata 6y ago
    > Do you have any extraordinary evidence to back this extraordinary claim? The graphs near the bottom of this article: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/nov/05/joe-hockey-and-george-christensen-back-unfounded-claims-about-biden-comeback https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/nov/05/joe-h... Michigan is the one I was remembering.
    - ninkendo 6y ago
      Nothing in that graph indicates a “99% Biden” vote dump. The steep vertical line you see in blue is painting over another steep vertical line in red, indicating trump also got a significant number of votes in that dump (although much less then Biden. I’d estimate something like 75% Biden from eyeballing it). If it was a 99% dump, the red line would be seen continuing on its original path to the right.
      - Izkata 6y ago
        You're looking at the Wisconsin one, not the Michigan one.
  - ds2323 6y ago
    I live in Oakland County, MI and the area is mostly Trump. Many more trump signs out than Biden. I also lived in Detroit until March and it is extremely under populated.

Izkata 6y ago

The "red mirage" predictions were for over the course of the week as postmarked-pre-election ballots arrived late and got counted over the course of the week, not a mass-dump all at once. So no, there was no warning for this. And even with encouraging in-person voting, the dump was 99-100% Biden, that's the suspicious part. No way all Trump supporters voted in-person, even with the urging.

Natanael_L 6y ago
Maybe some predictions. Not all. Especially with the tampering work the postal service, extra delays in counting of mail-in votes were expected. Predicted. https://mobile.twitter.com/Natanael_L/status/1323187825735553029 https://mobile.twitter.com/Natanael_L/status/132318782573555... https://mobile.twitter.com/Natanael_L/status/1322644616492077056 https://mobile.twitter.com/Natanael_L/status/132264461649207... https://mobile.twitter.com/Natanael_L/status/1312349029892870144 https://mobile.twitter.com/Natanael_L/status/131234902989287... Almost none of the districts were 100% Biden, with a few exceptions - districts which are historically democratic leaning, AND in which journalists literally could not find one single person claiming to have voted for Trump when they investigated these numbers. And I have not heard of any example of mail-in batches going 100% to Biden. There's statistics over the split in mail-in votes. There's like 2x more democratic mail-in votes than republican mail-in votes.
- Natanael_L 6y ago
  Wasn't just me saying it. https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/usps-states-delayed-mail-in-ballots/2020/08/14/64bf3c3c-dcc7-11ea-8051-d5f887d73381_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/usps-states...
ninkendo 6y ago
> the dump was 99-100% Biden, that's the suspicious part Do you have any extraordinary evidence to back this extraordinary claim? I kept a spreadsheet of the votes in Michigan as they came in and I don't see any dumps that were 99-100% Biden. Also, the "Red Mirage" also was a big thing in states that weren't allowed by law to start counting the mail-in ballots until the day of the election (MI, PA were two of these states.) So they ended up prioritizing counting the in-person ballots on election day, and got to the backlog of mail ballots after the polls closed. This was all a very easily predictable, simple result of the election laws in the states, and it was predicted. None of this was surprising to anyone who paid attention prior to election day.
- Izkata 6y ago
  > Do you have any extraordinary evidence to back this extraordinary claim? The graphs near the bottom of this article: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/nov/05/joe-hockey-and-george-christensen-back-unfounded-claims-about-biden-comeback https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/nov/05/joe-h... Michigan is the one I was remembering.
  - ninkendo 6y ago
    Nothing in that graph indicates a “99% Biden” vote dump. The steep vertical line you see in blue is painting over another steep vertical line in red, indicating trump also got a significant number of votes in that dump (although much less then Biden. I’d estimate something like 75% Biden from eyeballing it). If it was a 99% dump, the red line would be seen continuing on its original path to the right.
    - Izkata 6y ago
      You're looking at the Wisconsin one, not the Michigan one.
- ds2323 6y ago
  I live in Oakland County, MI and the area is mostly Trump. Many more trump signs out than Biden. I also lived in Detroit until March and it is extremely under populated.